Poll: Grimm leads Dem challenger

Facing a federal indictment on charges of tax fraud and fundraising struggles, Rep. Michael Grimm (R-N.Y.) leads Democratic opponent Domenic Recchia by four points in a new independent poll.

{mosads}The poll, conducted by Siena College for NY 1 News and Capital New York, gives Grimm 44 percent support to Recchia’s 40 percent support among likely voters, with Green Party candidate Henry Bardel taking 4 percent, and another 12 percent are undecided.

Grimm was indicted in late April on 20 counts largely concerning a health food restaurant he owned, including charges that he underreported $1 million in taxes and committed perjury when asked about it.

The news shook up his race, causing some Republicans to mull a possible replacement for him, the eventual departure of his campaign manager and a steep drop-off in his fundraising. He’s been cut off by national Republicans and has run just one ad of his own, launched this week hitting Recchia as a “tax-raising machine.”

The Staten Island-area district is a swing district that leans slightly Republican and, in a midterm year with a favorable climate for Republicans, should’ve easily reelected Grimm this fall.  And some political observers say voters in the district are willing to forgive Grimm for the indictment — and some might even find it endearing.

So Democrats have taken no chances, bombarding Grimm with $630,000 worth of ads, according to the Center for Responsive Politics.

That’s why they’re taking heart in the results of the Siena College poll. They pointed to the fact that Grimm is underwater with voters, 49 percent viewing him unfavorably to 39 percent who view him favorably, while Recchia is still unknown by 45 percent of voters and viewed more positively, as evidence Recchia can pull it out by Election Day.

“It’s clear that the more New Yorkers hear about Michael Grimm and his 20-count indictment, the less they like what they are hearing,” said Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesman Marc Brumer. “As voters learn more about Domenic Recchia’s agenda for the middle class, the more they trust him to strengthen the middle class. This is clearly a competitive race that’s moving in the wrong direction for Michael Grimm.”

The survey was conducted via telephone among 585 likely voters from Sept. 9-14 and has a margin of error of 4 percent.