House nominations on the line on Tuesday

Tuesday’s Arizona Republican primary to take on vulnerable Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick is the last — and one of the most consequential — tests of establishment might at the House level this cycle.

Voters will also head to the polls in Florida and again in Oklahoma for runoffs to decide GOP contenders in some of this cycle’s top-targeted races and nominees for other safe seats. 

Here are The Hill’s four things to watch in Tuesday night’s primaries.

AZ-01: Who will Kirkpatrick face this fall?

Kirkpatrick’s GOP-leaning district is a top target for Republicans, but they’re wringing their hands over the uncertain fate of Arizona House Speaker Andy Tobin, the pick of national Republicans. 

Tobin has faced a contentious primary fight with rancher Gary Kiehne and state Rep. Adam Kwasman, and scant public polling has shown the Speaker in a tight race with Kwasman. National and local Republicans say it’s anyone’s guess whether a last-minute influx of outside spending — to the tune of about $350,000 from a trio of establishment groups, including the Chamber of Commerce — to boost Tobin can push him over the edge and help him overcome a consistent cash deficit that made him the only candidate unable to run TV ads during the race.

Kiehne, meanwhile, has poured about $450,000 of his own money into his campaign and carved out a niche as the outsider in the race. Kwasman has sought to take up the conservative mantle, touting the endorsement of anti-illegal immigration advocate Sheriff Joe Arpaio and accusing Tobin of supporting Common Core education standards.

Though the National Republican Congressional Committee has put Tobin on its list of top candidates, it appears to be hedging its bets in the race and suggested Monday it would engage regardless of who voters pick.

“Ann Kirkpatrick has been so devoted to supporting President Obama’s failed agenda that no matter what happens Tuesday night, she’ll have to answer for her horrible record,” said NRCC spokesman Daniel Scarpinato.

But national Republicans privately admit no matter who wins the nod, they’ll enter the general election without a flawless candidate. Kiehne compared police officers to Nazis and said most mass shootings are committed by Democrats, while Kwasman mistook a bus full of YMCA campers for illegal immigrants and became a late-night talk-show punch line. And most recently, Tobin drew national headlines of his own, when he suggested illegal immigrant children could be bringing Ebola in from Central America.

AZ-09, FL-18: Which second-tier Republicans will take on formerly top-tier GOP targets?

Democratic Reps. Kyrsten Sinema (Ariz.) and Patrick Murphy (Fla.) were once considered top Republican targets this fall, but a combination of savvy politicking during their first terms and serious fundraising chops have managed to ward off any serious challengers from their races.

Neither of Sinema’s potential GOP opponents has a clear lead, and neither is perfect. Retired Air Force Lt. Col. Wendy Rogers provided easy fodder for Democratic attacks when she ran in 2012 and suggested she wanted to see Social Security “phased out. Former Arizona State University quarterback Andrew Walter has shown an unfamiliarity with policy details that lends itself to Democratic charges he’s unprepared for office.

Meanwhile, Murphy’s likely GOP opponent, former state Rep. Carl Domino, has been left off national Republicans’ list of top potential contenders. And despite largely self-funding his campaign, Domino is unlikely to come anywhere near the more than $3.7 million raised by Murphy so far this cycle.

FL-26: Can GOP avoid scandal-plagued ex-congressman?

Despite Democratic hopes, the untimely return of colorful former Rep. David Rivera (R) is unlikely to derail the GOP’s top contender, Miami-Dade school board member Carlos Curbelo, from claiming his party’s nomination to take on Rep. Joe Garcia (D) this fall.

Rivera’s launch, then pause, and then relaunch of his campaign has been little more than a sideshow for Florida politicos. Last week’s revelation that Rivera’s ex-girlfriend named him a co-conspirator in a scheme to fund a primary opponent to Garcia make it even less likely he’ll make much of an impact on the race Tuesday night, despite the fact he’s well-known in the district.

Democrats argue Curbelo backed himself into a corner in the primary by endorsing the full deportation of the recent influx of immigrant children entering the U.S. illegally, a stance they see as problematic for him in November in the majority Hispanic district. They also see his lobbying work, which has drawn scrutiny recently, as a potential liability and will be watching his win margin to see how formidable he’ll be this fall against Garcia.

OK-05, AZ-07: Who’s going to Washington next year?

Republicans in Oklahoma’s 5th District and Democrats in Arizona’s 7th district will pick party nominees who are essentially assured to be their next representatives. 

In the deep-red Oklahoma district, former state Sen. Steve Russell and State Corporation Commissioner Patrice Douglas are locked in a runoff for the GOP nomination to replace Rep. James Lankford (R), who won the GOP nomination for Senate in June. 

Russell has highlighted his compelling personal background as a member of the team that captured Saddam Hussein in Iraq in 2003, while Douglas has some support from local and national GOP establishment, including some female House Republicans.

According to Oklahoma political observers, Russell is still the prohibitive favorite on Tuesday due to an expert ground game, despite Douglas’s name recognition. 

In Arizona’s true-blue 7th District former state Rep. Ruben Gallego and former Maricopa County Supervisor Mary Rose Wilcox have been engaged in a fierce and oftentimes personal battle for retiring Rep. Ed Pastor’s (D) district. 

Though Wilcox has the support of Pastor and her more than three decades engaged in local politics in the district, Gallego has invested in a ground game and youth outreach he believes will pay off in the young district. Arizona politicos say that’s likely the right bet, and he’s the favorite on Tuesday.