OVERNIGHT CAMPAIGN: Democrats’ foreign policy predicament

Foreign policy looks likely to become an issue in the midterms, and Democrats are caught in a quandary on how to handle it.

A new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll out this week gave Republicans an 18-point advantage on which party is seen as best handling foreign policy, and a 38-point lead on the question of which party ensures a strong national defense. It also showed nearly half of Americans feel the country is less safe now than before the 9/11 terrorist attacks.

{mosads}The issue is politically complicated for Democrats, as the progressive base opposes hasty military action, worried it will cause a replay of the botched Iraq War. But polling has shown Americans overwhelmingly support military action against ISIS.

And because there’s no good answer for vulnerable Democrats on foreign policy, on Wednesday night, there was an array of answers from Democratic senators facing tough races to President Obama’s address on the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria.

Sens. Mark Begich (D-Alaska) and Mark Udall (D-Colo.) were both sharply critical of the president’s proposal, with Udall demanding Obama secure congressional approval before launching a military effort and Begich saying he opposes arming Syrian rebels.

Another quartet of vulnerable Democrats, Sens. Kay Hagan (N.C.), Mark Pryor (Ark.), Al Franken (Minn.) and Jeanne Shaheen (N.H.), were cautiously supportive of Obama’s remarks.

With Democrats split on military action, both whether and what they’ll support, securing approval from Congress becomes an even tougher task for the president, and heightens the likelihood he’ll go it alone — a proposition that holds further political risks for the president and his party.

 

SENATE SHOWDOWN

NRSC: The National Republican Senatorial Committee raised $6.1 million in August, a record-breaking sum for an election-year August. The committee ended the month with $19.9 million cash on hand.

KS-SEN (ROBERTS), KY-SEN (MCCONNELL): Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio), the vice chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, expressed confidence that vulnerable Republican colleagues such as Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) and Sen. Pat Roberts (Kan.) will win without financial support form the NRSC.

MS-SEN (COCHRAN):The entire Mississippi Supreme Court will hear Republican primary challenger Chris McDaniel’s oral arguments in his case alleging voter fraud in his contest with Sen. Thad Cochran (R-Miss.) on Oct. 2.

KS-SEN (ROBERTS): The Kansas Supreme Court has decided to hear Democratic Senate candidate Chad Taylor’s lawsuit against Secretary of State Kris Kobach over Taylor’s request to be removed from the ballot, and has scheduled oral arguments for Tuesday.

Meanwhile, Republicans are rushing to Sen. Pat Roberts’s (R) rescue. Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky and Sen. Orrin Hatch of Utah are reportedly calling on donors to contribute to the senator, and Sens. Rand Paul of Kentucky and John McCain of Arizona will campaign for him.

IL-SEN (KIRK): Sen. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.) is raising money with warnings that first lady Michelle Obama could challenge him during his 2016 reelection fight, according to the Chicago Sun-Times.

 

BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE

FL-2 (SOUTHERLAND): Democrat Gwen Graham’s name was included on lobbying disclosure records from the firm Andrews & Kurth, which represented the Secondary Lead Smelters Association, in 1989 and 1990. She has said she never engaged in lobbying for the firm, and her former supervisor said in a letter she didn’t do lobbying work, but GOP Rep. Steve Southerland (R) is calling her a “Washington lobbyist” in a new ad.

AZ-1 (KIRKPATRICK): Arizona Speaker Andy Tobin (R), challenging vulnerable Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, will give the official Republican address on Saturday morning.

LA-05 (MCALLISTER): Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin endorsed businessman Zach Dasher, a relative of the “Duck Dynasty” family, for Rep. Vance McAllister’s (R) seat.

MA-6 (TIERNEY): Businessman Chris Stockwell entered the race for Rep. John Tierney’s (D) seat as an independent, a move that’s likely to complicate Republican John Tisei’s shot at the seat against Democrat Seth Moulton.

NY-24 (MAFFEI): The National Republican Congressional Committee has reserved $1.2 million in fall advertising time in the district to boost Republican John Katko.

 

AD WATCH

AR-SEN (PRYOR): Sen. Mark Pryor’s (D) campaign launched two new ads. The first hits Rep. Tom Cotton (R) for accepting money from the Koch brothers, featuring interviews with workers who were laid off two weeks before Christmas in Fordyce, Ark. In the second, Pryor talks direct to camera about his efforts to stop companies from sending jobs overseas.

GA-SEN (OPEN): Democratic Senate candidate Michelle Nunn slammed her party for opposing the Keystone XL oil pipeline in a new ad.

LA-SEN (LANDRIEU): Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) hits Rep. Bill Cassidy (R) on border security, touting her own work to secure the border.

IL-SEN (DURBIN): Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D) is up with his first ad of his reelection, featuring a woman who praises the senator for his work on the Veterans Affairs Family Caregiver Program, which helped her wounded husband.

IA-SEN (OPEN): Tom Steyer’s NextGen Climate Action launched radio ads saying Republican Joni Ernst’s views on climate change defy “basic science and basic common sense.”

NH-1 (SHEA-PORTER): Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) charges Republican Frank Guinta’s campaign is funded by the Koch brothers and that he “sided with big oil and the wealthiest every time” in her first ad.

AZ-1 (KIRKPATRICK): The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee hits Republican Andy Tobin on education cuts.

FL-2 (SOUTHERLAND): Rep. Steve Southerland (R) calls Democrat Gwen Graham a “Washington lobbyist” and says she was “hand-picked by Nancy Pelosi.”

NY-4 (OPEN): Republican Bruce Blakeman targets female voters with his new ad against District Attorney Kathleen Rice (D), pointing out that she fired 12 female part-time lawyers when she became DA and that she kept a staffer on her campaign after he tweeted controversial remarks about women.

 

POLL POSITION

NC-SEN (HAGAN): Sen. Kay Hagan (D) takes 46 percent of likely voters while North Carolina Speaker Thom Tillis takes 43 percent and libertarian Sean Haugh takes 5 percent in a new Civitas Poll, with 6 percent undecided. Hagan and Tillis are essentially tied in a head-to-head match-up, Hagan leading by just a point.

MI-SEN (OPEN): A USA Today/Suffolk University poll of likely voters gives Democratic Rep. Gary Peters 46 percent to former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land’s 37 percent support. Ten percent are undecided, and the three other candidates in the race take about 6 percent altogether.

CO-SEN (UDALL): A SurveyUSA poll of likely voters gives Sen. Mark Udall (D) 46 percent among likely voters to 42 percent support for Rep. Cory Gardner (R).

NY-21 (OPEN): Republican Elise Stefanik takes 46 percent of likely voters to Democrat Aaron Woolf’s 33 percent support in a new Siena College poll. Green Party candidate Matt Funiciello takes 10 percent and 11 percent are undecided.

 

2016 RUMBLINGS

BIDEN: Vice President Biden will travel to Iowa on Wednesday, just three days after potential presidential primary rival Hillary Clinton appears in the state, The Des Moines Register reports.

PERRY: Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R) said on Thursday during a trip to China: “I may not run in 2016, but I’ve spent the last 20-plus months preparing. If I don’t run, it won’t be because I’m not prepared.”

CARSON: Ben Carson launched his political action committee and announced that he will endorse 10 candidates in the midterms.

PAUL: Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) said Wednesday night in a response to President Obama’s address that, though he supports “doing whatever it takes” to address the growing terrorist threat in the Middle East, the U.S. should be wary its actions don’t create further unrest.

 

QUOTE OF THE DAY

“We’ve got great tools to communicate about everything else. We can, uh, text. Uh, what do you call it? Sexting.”

—Rep. James Clyburn (D-S.C.) encouraging supporters to use “tools” to organize and get out the vote this fall