The Trail 2016: The Trump Dump

by Jonathan Swan - 11/01/16 6:08 PM ET

Welcome to THE TRAIL 2016, your daily rundown from The Hill on all the latest news in the White House, Senate and House races.

Donald Trump woke Tuesday morning to so many negative stories he might have given serious thought to rolling over and going back to sleep.

Trump faced all manner of accusations over a period of just a few hours the previous night. The New York Times reported that he’d used a “legally dubious” maneuver to avoid paying taxes. And the liberal outlets Slate and Mother Jones wrote – though without conclusive proof – that Trump or his associates have been secretly communicating with the Kremlin.

Trump didn’t bite. On Tuesday, he gave one of his most subdued and on-message speeches of the cycle. He traveled to Valley Forge, Pa., and stuck to his prepared script, telling his audience why ObamaCare was failing, and why only his policies could repair America.

The broader race, however, remains Hillary Clinton’s to lose, despite the FBI director James Comey’s damaging announcement on Friday. While Trump is gaining in some polls, he’s still well behind in Electoral College projections. Check out this report by Jonathan Easley and Amie Parnes on Clintonland’s aggressive response to Comey.

Buckle up for the final week of campaign 2016. And stay with The Hill for every break in every story.

RACE TO 1600 PENN

HERE COMES THE CAVALRY: The Hill’s Reid Wilson reports: Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton’s campaign is outspending her Republican rival by a factor of two-to-one on television advertising in six key battleground states in the final seven days before next Tuesday’s election.

A SPECIAL WHAT? The Hill’s Peter Sullivan and Ben Kamisar report: Donald Trump on Tuesday vowed to call a “special session” of Congress to repeal ObamaCare if he wins the White House. It’s unclear why a special session would be required to roll back the law, because the new Congress would start work before the next president is inaugurated.

DUMP WHAT? The Hill’s Katie Bo Williams reports:Hillary Clinton’s campaign chairman advised a longtime aide that they were “going to have to dump all those emails” on the day that a report revealed Clinton’s exclusive use of a private email server while secretary of State, according to stolen emails released Tuesday by WikiLeaks.

IN 2016, THIS IS NEWS: The Hill’s Jessie Hellmann reports: Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) revealed Tuesday morning that he voted for Donald Trump. Ryan didn’t appear to embrace Trump and didn’t mention his name in his Fox News interview, only referring to him as “our nominee.”

PLAYING DEFENSE: The Hill’s Reid Wilson reports: Lawyers representing state Democratic parties in four battleground states on Monday filed complaints against Republicans and Donald Trump in an effort to stop what they call concerted efforts to suppress votes among minorities.

ODDS AND ENDS

TELL US WHAT YOU REALLY THINK: The Hill’s Mark Hensch reports: CNN’s president says he has “no tolerance” for the behavior former contributor Donna Brazile, who reportedly shared debate questions with Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign. He also called Brazile’s reported behavior “unethical” and “disgusting.”

ROBO-DEPLORABLES: The Hill’s Ben Kamisar reports: A white supremacist supporting Donald Trump has launched a series of robocalls in Utah meant to frame independent presidential candidate Evan McMullin as gay.

POLL POSITION

OUTLIER OR SIGN OF THINGS TO COME? The Hill’s Mark Hensch reports: Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has overtaken Democratic rival Hillary Clinton for the first time since May in the ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll.

CRUISING TO 332: The Hill’s Vicki Needham reports: Hillary Clinton is projected to easily win the White House, according to the final installment of a closely followed economic election model from Moody’s Analytics. A week from Election Day, the latest model forecast Clinton winning 332 electoral votes to Donald Trump’s 206.

VIRGINIA’S SIX: The Hill’s Jessie Hellmann reports: Hillary Clinton has a 6-point lead over Donald Trump in the swing state of Virginia just a week before Election Day, a new poll released Tuesday shows.

CAROLINA RISING: The Hill’s Jonathan Swan reports:Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump is nibbling away at Hillary Clinton’s lead in North Carolina, according to a new poll. The race is now too close to call in Elon University’s latest survey with Clinton leading Trump 42 percent to 41.2 percent.

REMINDER THAT TEXAS IS A RED STATE: The Hill’s Rebecca Savransky reports: Donald Trump has opened up a double-digit lead over Hillary Clinton in Texas, according to a new KTVT CBS 11 Dixie Strategies poll release Tuesday.

LEADERSHIP PROBLEMS: The Hill’s Mark Hensch reports: Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump gets the lowest score Gallup has measured when voters are asked if he has the personality and leadership qualities needed to serve in the White House.

THE DAILY TRUMP

MYSTERY SOLVED: The Washington Post reports: In 2007, Donald Trump bought a six-foot-tall portrait of himself at a fundraiser auction, and paid with $20,000 from his namesake charity, the Donald J. Trump Foundation. Now, at last, we can see what he got for his money.

NOT TOO LATE: The Hill’s Mallory Shelbourne reports: Donald Trump’s campaign is encouraging early voters in Pennsylvania who regret voting for Hillary Clinton to find out how they can change their ballots.

QUOTE OF THE DAY

“They don’t want him as a pastor or a husband or even a friend. They want him to swim the moat with a knife in his teeth.”

— Christian leader Penny Nance describes the attitudes of evangelical women she knows who are “die hard” Trump supporters.

CONGRESSIONAL CAMPAIGNS

DEAD HEAT MISSOURI: The Hill’s Rebecca Savransky reports: The Senate race in Missouri is tight one week before Election Day, with the candidates within just 1 point of each other in a new Monmouth University poll.

NAVY BLUE PENNSYLVANIA: The Hill’s Mark Hensch reports: Democratic Senate candidate Katie McGinty leads Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) by 12 points — 47 percent to 35 percent, the poll found.

FBI FUEL: The Hill’s Jordain Carney and Cristina Marcos report: Republicans are using the FBI’s surprise decision to review emails that “appear to be pertinent” to Hillary Clinton’s use of a private email server as a last-second boost in the race for the House and Senate.

MONEY WATCH

INSURANCE POLICIES: The Hill’s Lisa Hagen reports: Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton’s campaign is running ads in four states viewed as safe Democratic territory as polls tighten in the final week of the race. The campaign is making six-figure buys in Virginia, Colorado, Michigan and New Mexico.

NEW KOCH: The Hill’s Jonathan Swan reports: The conservative donor network helmed by billionaire brothers Charles and David Koch is back on air with new TV ads in Wisconsin and North Carolina.

THE COMEY SURGE: The Hill’s Harper Neidig reports: Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign raised $11.3 million online over the last three days, the campaign announced Tuesday. The surge in contributions came after FBI Director James Comey announced Friday that his agency discovered emails that appear to be “pertinent” to its investigation into the private email server Clinton used while secretary of State.

WHAT WE ARE WATCHING FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW

(All times Eastern)

Welcome to Tuesday, when early voting begins in Kansas.

On Tuesday evening, Hillary Clinton campaigns in Sanford, Fla., at 6:15 and in Fort Lauderdale at 8:45 p.m. Bill Clinton is also in Florida tonight, holding an event at St. Petersburg, Fla., at 6:30.

Donald Trump is in Eau Claire, Wis., at 7 p.m.

Clinton’s running mate, Tim Kaine, is also in Wisconsin Tuesday night. He’s got an event in Madison at 6:15 p.m.

Bernie Sanders is stumping for Clinton in Portland, Maine, at 6:30 p.m. today.

Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson has a rally at the American International School of Utah, at 9 p.m. today.

On Wednesday, Hillary Clinton goes west. In the morning she’ll launch phone banks and canvasses in the Boulder area. She’ll also campaign in Las Vegas and at Arizona State University in Tempe at 9:30 p.m.

Chelsea Clinton is spending Wednesday in Wisconsin, with events in Eau Claire at 3 p.m. and Oshkosh at 5:15 p.m. Bill Clinton has a busy day in Iowa, where his wife needs to make up ground on Trump with white voters. He’s stumping in Sioux City at 2 p.m., Waterloo at 5 p.m., and Des Moines at 8 p.m.

President Obama is the third super surrogate stumping for Clinton on Wednesday. He’s rallying at 2 p.m. in Chapel Hill, N.C. His vice president, Joe Biden, will be in Florida. He’s at the Museum of Science & Industry in Tampa at 11:15 a.m and at Palm Beach State College at 3:45 p.m.

Kaine will campaign in Dubuque and Des Moines, and the liberal duo Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders are also spending their Wednesdays on the trail.

Warren will campaign for Clinton, Nevada U.S. Senate candidate Catherine Cortez Masto and Democrats up and down the ticket in Carson City and Reno, Nevada.

Sanders is hitting Michigan. He’s got a noon rally at Western Michigan University, and a 3:15 p.m. rally at The Village at Grand Traverse Commons.

Trump is scheduled to spend his Wednesday in Florida. He’s campaigning in Miami at noon, Orlando at 4 p.m., and Pensacola at 8 p.m.

Mike Pence is campaigning Wednesday in Mesa, Ariz., at 1 p.m. He’ll then hit Las Cruces, N.M. for a 4 p.m. event; and finally Loveland, Colo, for a 7:30 p.m start.

On Wednesday night, New Hampshire Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) faces off against Gov. Maggie Hassan (D) in the WMUR debate.

TWEET OF THE DAY

The Donna Brazile stuff is the rare WikiLeaks hack item that doesn’t melt when actual reporters lay their hands on it.

— Dave Weigel (@daveweigel) November 1, 2016