Pundits make their 2014 picks

Polls close in less than 24 hours. Control of the Senate is on the line. And the GOP is eyeing an historic House margin.

After nearly two years, billions of dollars and thousands of ads and polls, the voters will finally have their say on Election Day 2014.

In a biennial tradition at The Hill, we’ve asked top pundits and reporters from both sides of the aisle to make their predictions on who will win, who will lose and what it all means.

Joe Scarborough
host, MSNBC’s “Morning Joe,” former Florida Republican congressman

1: Who will win the Senate? Republicans
2: What will the margin be? 53-47
3: Who will win Colorado? Rep. Cory Gardner (R)
4: Who will win Iowa? Joni Ernst (R)
5. Who will win North Carolina? Sen. Kay Hagan (D)
6. Who will win Kansas? Sen. Pat Roberts (R)
7. Who will win Alaska? Dan Sullivan (R)
8. Will Georgia or Louisiana go to a runoff, and who will win? Yes in both races; Democrats in Georgia — Michelle Nunn, Republicans in Louisiana — Rep. Bill Cassidy
9. How many House seats will Republicans/Democrats pick up? Republicans plus eight.
10. Will John Boehner run for another term as Speaker? Yes.
11. Analysis: A negative mandate for Republicans, 2014 is little more than a referendum of President Obama’s first 6 years.

Julie Mason
host of “The Press Pool” on Sirius XM Radio’s nonpartisan POTUS channel

1. Who will win the Senate? Republicans
2. What will the margin be? 52-48
3. Who will win Colorado? Rep. Cory Gardner (R)
4. Who will win Iowa? Joni Ernst (R)
5. Who will win North Carolina? Most boring race of the cycle. Thom Tillis (R)
6. Who will win Kansas? Sen. Pat Roberts (R)
7. Who will win Alaska? Dan Sullivan (R)
8. Will Georgia or Louisiana go to a runoff, and who will win? Both — and Rep. Bill Cassidy (R) will win Louisiana, and Michelle Nunn (D) wins Georgia.
9. How many House seats will Republicans/Democrats pick up? Republicans pick up 11 seats.
10. Will John Boehner run for another term as Speaker? Yes, but there will be drama.
11. Analysis: All the bad boys will win: Rep. Michael Grimm (R-N.Y.), Rep. Vance McAllister (R-La.), Rep. Scott DesJarlais (R-Tenn.). It won’t make up for the loss of Rep. Steve Stockman (R-Texas).

Simon Rosenberg
Democratic strategist and president of the New Democrat Network (NDN)

1. Who will win the Senate? The Democrats
2. What will the margin be? 51-49
3. Who will win Colorado? Sen. Mark Udall (D)
4. Who will win Iowa? Rep. Bruce Braley (D)
5. Who will win North Carolina? Sen. Kay Hagan (D)
6. Who will win Kansas? Greg Orman (I)
7. Who will win Alaska? Dan Sullivan (R)
8. Will Georgia or Louisiana go to a runoff, and who will win? Both go to runoffs, and Michelle Nunn (D-Ga.) wins, Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-La.) loses.
9. How many House seats will Republicans/Democrats pick up? The GOP will pick up six seats.
10. Will John Boehner run for another term as Speaker? Yes, and he will be reelected.
11. Analysis: An important story of 2014 is the GOP’s demonstrated weakness in the 2016 Senate and presidential battlegrounds. Even in a strong midterm, Republicans are having trouble breaking through in any of the critical 2016 states like Colorado, Iowa, North Carolina and New Hampshire, and appear to be losing ground in Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Even if the GOP claims the Senate, their tenure there is likely to be unstable and short. The Democrats will be adding Arizona and Georgia to the 2016 map, going deeper into GOP terrain. All told, the formidable general election map for the Democrats is holding and is perhaps even stronger than it was in 2012. Given the overlap of that map with the Senate map in 2016, next cycle is still very much still on track to produce both a Democratic president and Senate.

Brent Budowsky
columnist for The Hill and former aide to Sen. Lloyd Bentsen (D-Texas)
 
1. Who will win the Senate? Democrats keep control of the Senate.
2. What will the margin be? 50-50, with Greg Orman (I-Kan.) voting with the Democrats.
3. Who will win Colorado? Rep. Cory Gardner (R)
4. Who will win Iowa? Joni Ernst (R)
5. Who will win North Carolina? Sen. Kay Hagan (D)
6. Who will win Kansas? Greg Orman (I)
7. Who will win Alaska? Sen. Mark Begich (D)
8. Will Georgia or Louisiana go to a runoff, and who will win? Georgia and Louisiana both go to runoffs. Even odds. Michelle Nunn (D-Ga.) and Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-La.) win.
9. How many House seats will Republicans/Democrats pick up? GOP gains 11 House seats.
10. Will John Boehner run for another term as Speaker? Boehner runs for and serves another term as Speaker.
11. Analysis: Good chance polls undercount Democrats in key states, as in 2010.  Little confidence in any forecasts, including my own. Many voters intensely dislike Obama and distrust Republicans. Udall and Braley could still win, but my best honest forecast today must be Gardner and Ernst.
 
Lanny Davis
the principal in the Washington law firm of Lanny J. Davis & Associates, served as former President Clinton’s special counsel and is a columnist for The Hill

1. Who will win the Senate? Democrats
2. What will the margin be? 50-50, Vice President Biden breaks the tie
3. Who will win Colorado? Rep. Cory Gardner (R)
4. Who will win Iowa? Joni Ernst (R)
5. Who will win North Carolina? Sen. Kay Hagan (D)
6. Who will win Kansas? Greg Orman (I)
7. Who will win Alaska? Sen. Mark Begich (D)
8. Will Georgia or Louisiana go to a runoff, and who will win? Both, and Michelle Nunn (D) will win in Georgia.
9. How many House seats will Republicans/Democrats pick up? Republicans will pick up five seats.
10. Will John Boehner run for another term as Speaker? Yes.
11. Analysis: To Republicans, if you win — be careful what you wish for. Now you have to own the results of the next two years — economy, internationally, partisan poison in Washington. If you don’t do outreach to find bipartisan solutions and actually pass legislation supported by Democrats, you will: (a) face defeat in 2016 and lose the congress; and (b) help assure the election of a Democratic president. Can you change the party of partisan “no” to the party of bipartisan solutions? I am doubtful, but that is your best hope to be viable in the future.

Armstrong Williams
conservative commentator and radio talk show host

1. Who will win the Senate? The GOP
2. What will the margin be?  51-49.
3. Who will win Colorado? Rep. Cory Gardner (R)
4. Who will win Iowa? Joni Ernst (R)
5. Who will win North Carolina? Sen. Kay Hagan (D)
6. Who will win Kansas? Despite a scare in Kansas, Sen. Pat Roberts (R) will win.
7. Who will win Alaska? Dan Sullivan (R)
8. Will Georgia or Louisiana go to a runoff, and who will win? Runoffs in both races. Rep. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) and David Perdue (R), in Georgia, will win for the GOP, for they will be desperate to grow or reach their majority.
9. How many House seats will Republicans/Democrats pick up? GOP picks up between six and 12.
10. Will John Boehner run for another term as Speaker? Absolutely and win handily.
11. Analysis: Republican base perception of Tea Party candidates will not be as strong because more establishment Republicans won the field. However, they will be formidable forces in 2016 presidential primaries — Sens. Marco Rubio (Fla.), Ted Cruz (Texas) and Rand Paul (Ky.) chief among them. Rep. Nancy Pelosi (Calif.) loses her position as Democrat leader: Younger House Democratic factions will favor stronger national leader. Pelosi is too old, and they can’t rely on her to recruit and do the necessary things to maintain their power base. Rank-and-file Democrats will run far away from Obama presidency, undermining any talk of legacy. Sen. Harry Reid (D-Nev.) will quietly slip into the shadows as new leaders emerge. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) decides she will run for Democratic nomination to the White House.
 
Grover Norquist
founder and president of Americans for Tax Reform

1. Who will win the Senate? GOP
2. What will the margin be? 53-47
3. Who will win Colorado? Rep. Cory Gardner (R)
4. Who will win Iowa? Joni Ernst (R)
5. Who will win North Carolina? Thom Tillis (R)
6. Who will win Kansas? Sen. Pat Roberts (R)
7. Who will win Alaska? Dan Sullivan (R)
8. Will Georgia or Louisiana go to a runoff, and who will win? Runoff in both states, and GOP wins in runoff both times.
9. How many House seats will Republicans/Democrats pick up? GOP picks up eight.
10. Will John Boehner run for another term as Speaker? Yes. So he can change world with GOP House, Senate and president.
11. Analysis: Republicans nominated solid candidates and expanded the map by challenging Iowa, Colorado, New Hampshire, Virginia, Michigan and Oregon. Democrats ran legacy candidates: Sen. Mary Landrieu (La.), Sen. Mark Udall (Colo.), Michelle Nunn (Ga.), Sen. Mark Pryor (Ark.). New slogan highlights the decline of the Democrat brand: “I’m not a Democrat, I’m a Nunn.” Money was helpful, but Obama could not buy himself a third Senate-saving election. Reid’s strategy of having few votes and no budgets saved the Democrats in 2010 and 2012 but could not continue. Now the Democrats in 2016, 2018 and 2020 will have to run with voting records in 2015 and 2016 organized by Sen. Mitch McConnell’s (R-Ky.) control of the Senate floor.
 
Dana Perino
former White House press secretary for George W. Bush and current co-host of Fox News’s “The Five”

1. Who will win the Senate? Republicans
2. What will the margin be? 51-49
3. Who will win Colorado? Rep. Cory Gardner (R)
4. Who will win Iowa? Joni Ernst (R)
5. Who will win North Carolina? Thom Tillis (R)
6. Who will win Kansas? Sen. Pat Roberts (R)
7. Who will win Alaska? Dan Sullivan (R)
8. Will Georgia or Louisiana go to a runoff, and who will win? Yes — possible runoffs in both. Republicans win both if there are runoffs.
9. How many House seats will Republicans/Democrats pick up? GOP, eight-seat pickup.
10. Will John Boehner run for another term as Speaker? Yes, one more round.
11. Analysis: The Republicans chose the most electable candidates, and they’ve run very good campaigns (but they had the best odds this year). The Democrats’ candidates have ranged mostly from lackluster to embarrassing, causing as many problems for the Democrats as Republicans did in 2012. I believe Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) will challenge Sen. Harry Reid (D-Nev.) for leader of the U.S. Senate, and this move will be supported by Hillary Clinton’s camp. And I hope that the president will find that he can achieve some important policy goals with the Congress, such as with tax reform and the Keystone XL pipeline. But the president sets the tone in Washington, no matter who runs the House and Senate — so this is largely up to him. We’ll see what happens.