House GOP scramble

House Republicans are struggling to find the votes to pass Speaker John Boehner’s (R-Ohio) new plan to cut spending and raise the $14.3 trillion debt ceiling.

The two-tiered bill, which would call for immediate cuts and spending reductions later this Congress, has attracted widespread criticism from Democrats. 

{mosads}During his weekly press conference with reporters, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) said “it’s dead on arrival in the Senate, if they get it out of the House.”

While that is true, there is much leverage riding on the House vote.

If House Republicans can pass it, they can say the ball is now in the Senate’s court. They can claim they have passed two bills that would raise the nation’s debt ceiling, while the Senate hasn’t cleared one. That would give them more power in talks to strike a deal.

But it is far from certain that Republicans have the votes. If all Democrats reject the bill, two dozen GOP defections on the House floor would doom it.

And if it fails, Reid and the White House would take back the driver’s seat. It would also allow Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) to be lead Republican negotiator over a compromise that can attract 218 votes in the House and 60 in the Senate.

Failing to pass his own bill would handicap Boehner, and he would probably be forced to accept anything that comes out of the Senate.

It’s worth noting that in 2008, after the initial Troubled Asset Relief Program bill failed on the House floor, the Senate crafted the solution, subsequently passed by the lower chamber.

It is highly unusual for bills to fall short on the House floor. But influential conservatives came out Tuesday against the plan.

Rep. Jim Jordan, Boehner’s Ohio colleague and chairman of the Republican Study Committee, said he will vote no and later added that he doesn’t think the measure has the votes.

The Club for Growth also clearly expressed its opposition.

Boehner and his lieutenants did get some good news. The powerful U.S. Chamber of Commerce embraced the bill, as did Tea Party favorite Rep. Allen West (R-Fla.). 

Five Democrats voted with House Republicans for the “cut, cap and balance” bill last week. 

But already one of those five Democrats, Rep. Health Shuler (N.C.), said Boehner can count him out of the reckoning.

The debate on the debt ceiling has intensified in recent days as the Aug. 2 deadline looms. The vote on the floor could be a turning point.