National tides in the land of mountains

Montana often defies easy political labeling and will probably continue to do so next Tuesday. The state has been reliably Republican in presidential elections since 1964, except in 1992 when Clinton won with a whopping 38 percent of the vote. But consistency at the top of the ticket masks the complicated story of a closely-divided state.

Montana’s congressional delegation consists of two Democrats in the Senate and a Republican holding the lone House seat. The 2008 election produced a sweep of the state’s executive offices by Democrats with the exception of the Republican lieutenant governor, the running mate of easily re-elected Democratic Governor Brian Schweitzer. The state legislature is similarly divided, with control of the Senate hinging on just a few seats in each of the last three elections, and the House split 50-50 in the ‘04 and 08 contests. In 2006, Republicans won 50 seats, Democrats won 49, and the Republicans formed an uneasy one-vote majority coalition with a representative from the Constitution Party. 

It’s not that Montana is always isolated from national partisan tides. In 2006, Jon Tester ousted longtime incumbent Sen. Conrad Burns in part due to the anti-administration and anti-incumbent voter sentiment of that year. Similarly in 2008, the Democrats’ victories in state executive offices and unusually narrow (2.2 percent) losing margin in the presidential vote were aided by voter discontent with the Bush administration.   

This year, the national wave is also powered by anti-incumbent feeling, and may be even more potent than in 2008, focused now on the Democrats as the party in power. But incumbents in Montana are likely to be sheltered by the calendar, political cross-currents, and low turnout.

The only seat in Montana’s congressional delegation up this year is the lone House seat, held by Republican Denny Rehberg. He does not appear to be in any danger of losing, despite the Democratic nominee’s last-ditch campaign riding his horse. But this won’t be a gain for the Republicans in the House, and since neither Democratic senator is up for re-election, Montana will be a wash in the congressional tally. 

The calendar also protects statewide officials from Governor on down, who are elected in presidential years. The Democrats who won in 2008 won’t face the voters again for two more years. 

That leaves the state legislature, where the impact of voter discontent may be felt but is harder to gauge. This is partly because Montana lacks the statewide public opinion polls that assess political sentiment in most other states. But it’s also because the national tide has produced some interesting cross-currents here. 

One side effect of the national wave of anti-incumbent sentiment is that some voter frustration has been channeled toward incumbents who are Republicans. Congressman Rehberg faced primary election challenges from both a moderate and a more conservative opponent this year. This was the first time he faced any primary opposition since he was first elected in 2000. Rehberg won this year’s primary with 75 percent of the vote. Republican turnout in the primary was twice that on the Democratic side, reversing the situation in 2008 and revealing either Republican enthusiasm (bad for Democrats) or intra-party conflict (bad for Republicans). 

The state legislative races also featured some hotly contested Republican primaries, as several candidates claiming Tea Party support mounted challenges to candidates more closely tied to the party. Whether the tensions from the June primary will hamper Republican unity in Montana next week is an open question, but so far Republicans seem to have patched up most of their differences. Only two of the more competitive House seats in the state have solid third-party candidates who could draw votes away from the Republicans, with one of the seats currently held by a Democrat and the other by a Republican. 

It is likely that control of the Montana Legislature will come down to voter turnout. There, the high emotional pitch echoing among Tea Partiers and others frustrated with the Obama administration and the national economy will likely provide an edge to Republicans. Their huge vote tally in the June primary bodes well for Republican turnout on Tuesday. But both parties and a range of civic and advocacy groups are taking advantage of Montana’s early voting and election-day registration rules to mobilize voters. 

Without hot contests at the top of the ticket to raise voter motivation, dramatic change in the Legislature seems unlikely. Even if Republicans win majorities in both houses of the Legislature, they will face Democrats in control of state executive offices. Thus national tides will wash only mildly onto Montana’s shores. On Nov. 3, Montana is unlikely to look like a political tsunami struck it, even if the national results produce a sea change in Congress.

Christopher Muste is an assistant professor of American politics at the University of Montana.