District by district – South Carolina

SOUTH CAROLINA-05

House Budget chairman down by 10 points

{mosads}Rep.
John Spratt (D-S.C.) trails Republican Mick Mulvaney by 10 points, 39
percent to 49 percent, with 10 percent of likely voters undecided,
according to The Hill 2010 Midterm Election Poll.

Mulvaney
is winning independents by 23 points and leads among male, female,
middle-aged and older voters. The only group Spratt leads is younger
voters, but he’s winning that unpredictable voting group by a mere two
points.

Spratt’s favorability rating is 41 percent, with 47
percent rating him unfavorably. And 43 percent said Spratt’s 14 terms
in Congress were a reason to vote against him.

Spratt is
the chairman of the House Budget Committee, and Speaker Nancy Pelosi
(D-Calif.) made him her point man on budget issues. Those ties have
come back to haunt him. The NRCC has aired several adds highlighting
his ties to the party leadership, including one where he’s called a
“rubber stamp” for Pelosi and another where he’s shown dancing
alongside the Speaker.

When Pelosi was in South Carolina in
September, she hosted a fundraiser for Spratt in Charleston, which is
outside of his district.

He voted for cap-and-trade
legislation, the stimulus and healthcare reform — votes the GOP is
reminding the electorate of in its campaign ads.

Spratt has
been targeted by the GOP before, to no avail. In 2006, Republicans sent
then-Vice President Dick Cheney to campaign for his opponent, but
Spratt easily won that race and, in 2008, prevailed with a comfortable
62 percent. Yet his district has turned more and more Republican. Sen.
John McCain (R-Ariz.) won it in 2008, and President Obama is unpopular
here, with 55 percent of voters rating him unfavorably.

Mulvaney
has the backing of the Tea Party and has been endorsed by former Alaska
Gov. Sarah Palin. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has campaigned
for him.

The DCCC has spent about $872,000, while the NRCC has spent about $1 million.

The
Hill poll was conducted Oct. 16-20 by Penn Schoen Berland. The survey
consisted of 499 phone interviews among likely voters and has a margin
of error of plus or minus 4.4 percent.