Oregon in 2010: A blue state flirts with red

In the U.S. House, the state has four Democrats to one Republican, a ratio that has been in place since 1996. Senator Gordon Smith was the last Republican to hold statewide office; he was defeated in the Democratic sweep of 2008. Party registration numbers have also shifted in favor of the Democrats. particularly since 2006.

Nonetheless, Republicans remain potentially competitive and this year, the contest for governor is very close. The Democrats nominated former Governor John Kitzhaber, who was initially elected governor in 1994 and served until 2002 (the current governor, Ted Kulongoski, has served two terms and is ineligible to run again). The weakness of the Republican bench was revealed when the party nominated former pro basketball star Chris Dudley, who is a celebrity, having played for the Portland Trail Blazers, but has had no political experience. But Dudley is an engaging moderate, as were successful Republicans in the past, such as Senator Mark Hatfield and Governor Tom McCall. The GOP problem has been that very conservative candidates have routinely been nominated for statewide offices roughly since the nineties, but they have lost key suburban areas near Portland, particularly in Washington County, west of the city. Dudley, a moderate, is better positioned than most recent GOP candidates. In late October, polls showed Kitzhaber and Dudley essentially tied, perhaps with a slight edge to Kitzhaber, but the prospects are for a very close election, with the winner receiving a plurality rather than a majority of the vote.

Senator Ron Wyden, a Democrat, is running for re-election, but his contest is not in doubt. Wyden has cultivated rural counties, which are now the Republican base. He may not win most of them, but he won’t lose by much, either, and has sustained his urban roots — he was the Representative from the Portland urban House district before running successfully for the Senate in 1996. His Republican opponent, Jim Huffman, is a professor at the Lewis & Clark law school in Portland who has never run for office, but who has been mentioned a potential candidate for the bench if a Republican president were to be elected.

Among U.S. House contests, Democrat Earl Blumenaeur, from the Portland urban Third District is not seriously challenged, nor is Republican Greg Walden, from the large, rural Second District. But the Fifth District, extending from the southern Portland suburbs through the upper Willamette Valley to the college town of Corvallis, is marginal and has been nationally targeted. Rep. Kurt Schrader, a moderate first term Democrat, is strongly challenged by Republican Scott Bruun, a state legislator from the suburban part of the district. Polls are divided; turnout will be critical. The First District, from the upscale Portland “west hills” to suburbs west of the city, then northwest to the Pacific Ocean, is represented by Democrat David Wu; the only Chinese-American outside of Hawaii in Congress. Wu has overcome serious challenges recently, but his district is marginal. He has been challenged by Republican Rob Cornilles, a moderate businessman; polls have shown the race close enough that it has attracted some national funds and ads, but Wu has the advantage.

Finally, in the Fourth District in southwest Oregon, veteran House Democrat Peter DeFazio has been challenged by Art Robinson, a gadfly scientist with ties to religious conservative home-schoolers. DeFazio is an populist who has kept his diverse district, including Eugene (home to the University of Oregon) but also economically hard-hit rural areas happy – he was unopposed in 2008. But Robinson has gotten national funding by a largely anonymous group funded by conservative business interests, so he has benefitted from televised attack ads against DeFazio. Still, DeFazio’s deep roots in the district make an upset unlikely.

In the state legislature, the Democrats have substantial majorities. Lobbyists in Salem agree they are likely to be reduced, but that the Democrats are likely to retain control of both chambers.

Lunch is a Political Science professor at Oregon State and also serves as the Political Analyst for Oregon Public Broadcasting.