District by district – Illinois

ILLINOIS-14

Democrat down by one

Rep. Bill Foster (D-Ill.) is in a tough battle for his district. He
trails Republican Randy Hultgren by one point, 42 percent to 43, with
12 percent of likely voters undecided, according to The Hill 2010
Midterm Election Poll.

{mosads}Republicans have targeted this district since Foster won it in a
special election after former Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) resigned.

Hultgren, a state senator, could be hurt by low name recognition.
The poll found 26 percent of likely voters weren’t familiar with
Hultgren, compared with 11 percent who didn’t know Foster. And 27
percent of independents said they weren’t familiar with Hultgren.

Hultgren
won a competitive Republican primary, beating Ethan Hastert, the son of
the former Speaker, by 10 points. That primary, which garnered a lot of
media attention, was one of the earliest in the cycle, taking place in
February. The long time frame between the primary and election could
account for Hultgren’s low voter recognition.

Among independent voters, 45 percent favor Foster, 39 percent favor
Hultgren and 13 percent are undecided. Younger voters and female voters
are leaning toward Foster, while Hultgren is popular among male and
older voters.

President Obama carried this district, but 45 percent of voters said
they disapproved of the job he’s doing. And 71 percent said the
president would be a factor in their 2010 decision.

When asked about the change Obama brought to Washington, 35 percent
said he brought change “for the worse,” 30 percent said he brought
change “for the better” and 31 percent said nothing has changed.

Foster has brought in some executive-branch help, however, as first lady Michelle Obama has campaigned for him.

The NRCC has spent around $231,000 in independent expenditures, while the DCCC has spent around $252,000.

The Hill poll was conducted by Penn Schoen Berland Oct. 9-12. The
survey consisted of 406 phone interviews among likely voters and has a
margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.

ILLINOIS-17

Republican challenger ahead by seven points

Rep. Phil Hare (D-Ill.) is in trouble. He ran unopposed in 2008, but
this cycle he trails the GOP candidate, Tea Party favorite Bobby
Schilling, by seven points — 38 percent to Schilling’s 45 — and 14
percent of likely voters are undecided, according to The Hill 2010
Midterm Election Poll.

Perhaps
even more troubling, 50 percent of independent voters support
Schilling, while only 29 percent support Hare. Also among independents,
45 percent had a negative view of Hare, while only 18 percent had a
negative view of Schilling, who’s never run for office and owns a pizza
restaurant.

President Obama carried this district, and 57 percent of independents gave the president low marks.

Meanwhile, Hare trails by 17 points among male voters, while he only
leads by two points among female voters. Schilling has a 20-point lead
among middle-aged voters. Hare wins younger and older voters by a small
margin.

Meanwhile, 95 percent of Republicans said they definitely will vote, while 84 percent of Democrats said the same.

And 38 percent of voters said Obama has brought change to Washington
“for the worse,” while 25 percent said it was “for the better” and 34
percent said nothing has changed.

The NRCC has spent about $341,000 in independent expenditures, while the DCCC has spent around $599,000.

The Hill poll was conducted by Penn Schoen Berland Oct. 12-14. The
survey consisted of 417 phone interviews among likely voters and has a
margin of error of plus or minus 4.8 percent.