District by district – Washington

WASHINGTON-03

Heavy Republican investment has GOP candidate in the lead

{mosads}Rep.
Brian Baird (Wash.) was one of the first Democrats to announce his
retirement this cycle, giving his party plenty of time to prepare for
the open-seat race.

Still,
Democrat Denny Heck is trailing Republican Jamie Herrera by two points,
40 percent to 42, with 15 percent of respondents undecided, according
to The Hill’s 2010 Midterm Election Poll.

This is a district
that voted in favor of President Obama by eight points two years ago,
and his disapproval rating here isn’t as high as in other competitive
districts surveyed in The Hill’s poll. Independents, however, are
favoring Herrera 42 percent to 33.

Herrera is leading among
male voters, while Heck leads among females. Younger voters are
breaking for Herrera, while older voters are trending toward Heck.

Republicans are spending a lot more in this race than their Democratic counterparts.

The NRCC has spent around $644,000 in this district, while the DCCC has spent about $105,000.

The
Hill’s poll was conducted Oct. 2-7, surveyed 400 likely voters via the
telephone and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.