District by district – Ohio

Ohio-15

Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy (D) vs. Steven Stivers (R)

{mosads}Kilroy
is nine points behind Stivers, the 2008 Republican nominee, according
to The Hill/ANGA poll. She received 38 percent to his 47, with 15
percent of likely voters undecided.

Her biggest problem
appears to be among independent voters. The poll found Stivers beating
Kilroy among independents by nearly a 2-1 advantage, 46 percent to 25.

Another
28 percent of independents remain undecided, while the majority of
Democratic and Republican voters have broken for their party’s
candidate.

All this doesn’t bode well for Kilroy, especially
since a majority of independents (59 percent) disapprove of President
Obama. A majority of them (54 percent) also prefer a divided government.

Though
the poll shows Stivers with a lead, in 2008 the race came down to the
wire, with Kilroy declared the winner in December after a long fight
over provisional ballots.

She won by slightly more than 2,000 votes and became the first Democrat to represent the district in 42 years.

The
poll was conducted Sept. 28-30, consisted of 404 phone interviews among
likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.

Ohio-16

Rep. John Boccieri (D) vs. Jim Renacci (R)

Boccieri
trails his Republican challenger by just three points — 42 percent to
39 — with 15 percent of likely voters undecided, according to The
Hill/ANGA poll.

But dissatisfaction with Congress in this
district is high, particularly among independents. Eighty-five percent
of independents strongly disapprove of the job Congress is doing.

Even
though the race is close, the remaining undecided voters are largely
Republican and independent, making it tough for Boccieri to make up
much ground. Just 14 percent of remaining undecided voters are
Democrats, while 33 percent are Republican and 41 percent independent.

An
unusual dynamic in the district is that women, who tend to break for
Democrats in general, tend to break for the Republican here; Renacci
gets 45 percent of the female vote to Boccieri’s 36.

The poll
was conducted Sept. 25-27, consisted of 401 phone interviews among
likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.