US voices question if Putin underestimated Ukraine

Days into the deadly Russian invasion in Ukraine, military forces and civilians alike have taken up arms to resist Moscow’s invasion. As Western nations impose harsh economic sanctions on Moscow, a growing chorus of voices in the United States have questioned if Russian President Vladimir Putin underestimated Ukraine.

During an appearance on NBC’s “Meet the Press” on Sunday, Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) called Putin’s logic a “miscalculation.”

“Over the last couple years, Putin has been more and more isolated,” Warner said. “When you are an authoritarian leader and you have less and less input and you’re only hearing from people that want to say to the boss, ‘Hey, we are right,’ I think that leads to miscalculation. I think that is what has happened in the case of this invasion in Ukraine.” 

Across the aisle, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) has similarly questioned Putin’s rationale in launching the full-scale military invasion, given the political and economic risks. 

“I wish I could share more, but for now I can say it’s pretty obvious to many that something is off with Putin,” Rubio said in a tweet. “He has always been a killer, but his problem now is different & significant.”

“It would be a mistake to assume this Putin would react the same way he would have 5 years ago,” he added.

Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah), during a Sunday appearance on CNN’s “State of the Union,” asserted that “Putin may well finally recognize that he made a huge error, that he badly miscalculated how hard the people of Ukraine will fight and the nature of the world’s response.”

And Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) tweeted on Saturday that “Putin has miscalculated the will of the Ukrainian people.”

Meanwhile, President Biden said over the weekend that Putin’s actions were “producing the exact opposite effect that he intended,” as the global community rallied to support Ukraine and isolate Russia. 

Intelligence experts and diplomats are also saying the Russian president erred in his calculations.

Former Army intelligence analyst Chelsea Manning tweeted, “The sheer scale at which russia appears to have miscalculated going ‘all in’ on Ukraine cannot be overstated – as reliable information comes in and the effects hit home for everyone outside of the combat zones themselves, this is rapidly becoming a quagmire that benefits no one.”

Additionally, former CIA official John McLaughlin, now a senior fellow at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies, said that “Putin has miscalculated badly.”

“Russians will be deeply ashamed of what he is doing. He needs to be more seriously worried at home than at any previous time. This means he will become more desperate and possibly more reckless. It is hard to see how this can end well for him,” he added. 

Michael McFaul, who was formerly the U.S. ambassador to Russia, made a similar assessment in a tweet on Saturday.

“Putin is acting like Stalin after World War II when he imposed puppet regimes in Eastern Europe. But he has grossly miscalculated, overestimating his brutal power & underestimating Ukrainian people’s power,” he said. “Ukrainians will never submit to Putin’s imperial rule. Never.”

Among the factors discussed regarding Putin’s possible miscalculation is the leadership of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, a former comedian now emerging as a global hero for his resistance against Russian aggression. 

“Putin I think dismissed Zelensky as a clown and an idiot,” said Misha Bondarenko, who was born and raised in Ukraine and now lives in New Orleans. Bondarenko moved to the United States to attend Emerson College, though some of his family members remain in Ukraine. 

“I think Putin might have understood him as someone who doesn’t have the guts to look at — especially dead civilians, children — and just keep fighting. I think his psychological portrait of Zelensky was someone who would give up at the first sign of trouble,” Bondarenko said.

But in videos posted online in recent days, Zelensky has rallied Ukrainians to take up arms as he and other senior officials remain in the country. 

“I am here. We will not lay down any weapons. We will defend our state, because our weapons are our truth,” the president said.

Protesters around the world have marched for Ukraine, holding signs with messages such as “No war” in Tokyo and “Hands off Ukraine” in Berlin. 

Even in Russia, protesters have gathered to oppose the invasion of Ukraine, often resulting in mass arrests and detention of those involved.

Ukraine and Russia are reportedly expected to hold peace talks on the border of Ukraine and Belarus, as some 4,300 Russian soldiers have already been lost in the fighting, according to Ukrainian officials. 

“Ukrainians fight like hell,” Bondarenko added. “It’s kind of in the history. If you look at Ukrainian history, we fight like hell.”