Pentagon leaders defend Afghanistan evacuation effort after intelligence faltered

Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Mark Milley on Wednesday confirmed U.S. intelligence faltered in predicting the rapid collapse of Afghanistan once American forces began to leave the country, complicating the U.S. evacuation effort out of Kabul.

“There was nothing that I or any other of us saw that indicated a collapse of this army and this government in 11 days,” Milley told reporters at the Pentagon, referring to Afghan security forces.

Milley less than a month prior expressed confidence in the ability of Afghan forces to fend off a Taliban takeover of the country, saying: “I don’t think the end game is yet written.”

But by then, many intelligence reports questioned whether Afghan security forces would be able to resist Taliban fighters and hold Kabul without a U.S. military presence, according to a report released Tuesday by The New York Times.

The misjudgement has proven disastrous, with the Taliban, in just over a week, able to win control of its first provincial capital before taking over Kabul on Sunday. That was followed by scenes of chaos at the Hamid Karzai International Airport in Kabul on Monday as desperate Afghans fought to board U.S. military evacuation flights.

The chaos forced the United States to temporarily halt flights and deploy 6,000 troops to secure the airport.

About 4,500 such troops are now on the ground to help evacuate more than 10,000 U.S. citizens as well as tens of thousands of Afghans who helped the U.S. military in the 20-year war that are now fearful for their lives with the Taliban back in power. The effort would be the second-largest noncombatant evacuation operation in U.S. history, according to Milley.

Milley said Wednesday that U.S. intelligence indicated multiple scenarios were possible in Afghanistan once U.S. troops left by a Biden administration-imposed deadline of Aug. 31. Those potential outcomes included an outright Taliban takeover after a rapid collapse of the Afghan military and government, a civil war, or a negotiated settlement.

He added that the time frame of a rapid collapse was widely estimated and ranged in weeks to months to even years following a U.S. departure.

“I stood behind this podium and said that the Afghan security forces had the capacity, and by that I mean they had the training, the size, the capability to defend their country. This comes down to an issue of will and leadership. I did not nor did anyone else see a collapse of an army that size in 11 days,” Milley said.

Asked why military officials did not adequately prepare for the disarray that ensued after Kabul fell, Milley said the Pentagon had submitted a variety of plans that were approved by top military leaders and the president “to deal with these various scenarios,” and one such contingency is being used currently.

He said the situation “is still very dangerous, very dynamic and very fluid,” and the U.S. military mission now is to secure Kabul’s airport and “evacuate all those who have been faithful to us.”

“We’re not going to leave them behind and we’re going to get out as many as possible,” Milley said.

Washington has sought to increase the number of flights out of the country in an effort to evacuate some 5,000 to 9,000 people per day.

But as reports emerged from Afghanistan’s capital that thousands had been prevented from even reaching the airport by Taliban checkpoints and threats of violence, the State Department on Wednesday said it “cannot guarantee safe passage” to the Kabul airport.

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, who spoke alongside Milley, defended the military’s decision to focus on securing the airport versus establishing a corridor into Kabul to get U.S. citizens and Afghan allies out. 

“We cannot afford to either not defend that airfield, or not have an airfield that’s secure where we have hundreds or 1000s of civilians that can access the airfield at will and put our forces at risk,” Austin said.

“I certainly don’t want to do anything to make the airfield less safe and we won’t do that.”

Milley, meanwhile, said troops “have capability to do other things, if necessary,” but it would require a “policy decision” to pivot to that.