Biden win would leave GOP poised for 2024 comeback

Supporters of President Trump are bitterly disappointed that it looks like he did not prevail on Election Day. Though the ultimate outcome is not yet known, former Vice President Joe Biden leads in several key states and is given heavy odds of winning the Oval Office. 

Nonetheless, not everything went badly for the GOP; in fact, Republicans scored several significant wins. Most important, they have an excellent chance of retaking the White House in 2024. More on that later.

First, it appears the GOP will retain a majority in the U.S. Senate. Victories by Susan Collins in Maine, Joni Ernst in Iowa, Lindsey Graham in South Carolina and other Republican incumbents suggest that Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) will remain majority leader. As a result, the GOP will continue to act as gatekeeper, protecting Americans from the progressive Left. 

This could not be more important. 

Several bills already passed by the House and some of the proposals lofted by Democrats, like admitting Puerto Rico and Washington, D.C. to statehood and packing the Supreme Court, could have transformed the United States into a one-party country, forever relegating the GOP to minority status.

A Republican Senate will also protect Americans from the supposedly “moderate” Joe Biden, should he become president. That includes preventing the $4 trillion tax hike that Biden ran on and not allowing him to kill off the oil industry. 

It was not a given that Republicans would keep control of the Senate. Democrats poured incredible amounts of money – the most ever – into some of the hotly contested races. Jamie Harrison, the Democrat running against Lindsey Graham, pulled in $57 million between June and September, the largest amount ever raised in one quarter for any Senate contest. Graham should be flattered, and congratulated. 

Second, exit polls suggest President Trump garnered the highest share of non-white votes won by a Republican candidate in 60 years. That is a huge win not only for Trump, but also for the GOP. 

It appears that Black men and Hispanic voters both broke for Trump in higher-than-expected numbers. The economic gains won by those voter groups during the first three years of Trump’s term no doubt helped account for that gain, as did Trump’s embrace of school choice.

Black voters may also have been won over by the president signing criminal justice reform into law, launching highly acclaimed Opportunity Zones and providing permanent funding for Historically Black Colleges and Universities.

Hispanics may also have been swayed by social considerations like opposition to full-term abortions. Some polling also suggests that Hispanics are not fans of the Black Lives Matter protests that have roiled numerous American cities. 

How important are these gains with minorities? The inroads are critical; conventional wisdom suggests the party that wins the first-ever vote of young people tends to retain the loyalty of that individual going forward. With Hispanics growing rapidly as a portion of the electorate, the GOP needed to build their standing with a demographic that’s already a major factor in swing states such as Florida and Nevada. 

Third, voters in California approved Proposition 22, a ballot measure exempting Uber and Lyft from Assembly Bill 5. That means the ride-share companies will not have to designate their drivers as employees and need not comply with California’s expensive labor laws, which might have put them out of business.

That Californians approved this anti-union proposal is heartening. Many on the left want to eliminate the so-called “gig” economy to promote Big Labor; the repudiation of this progressive goal will allow the new economy, not to mention individual freedoms, to thrive.

Fourth, pollsters may never again be taken seriously. They have now been wildly, improbably inaccurate in two election cycles, as they confidently showed Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020 with comfortable leads over Donald Trump heading into Election Day. 

Their goofs in recent months resulted either from gross incompetence or political bias; either way, the polls showing Trump way behind Biden undoubtedly cost the president considerable turnout from discouraged backers, and also significant funding.

That won’t happen again. Democrats have just lost a powerful weapon.

Finally, Republicans should be cheered by the notion that Biden, should he become president, will serve at most one term. Whether he remains in office for four years or not, a Republican candidate will stand an excellent chance of winning in 2024. 

Biden is frail, and often suffers mental lapses that many in the media have largely hidden from the public. It will be impossible going forward to disguise what appears to be Biden’s declining mental acuity. 

And, it will be impossible to disguise the role that the liberal media played in assisting Biden’s run for the Oval Office. Republicans will be rightly incensed and even more distrustful of what they hear from the New York Times or CNN.

As important, opposed by a GOP-led Senate, Biden will get little done over the next four years. That is the expectation that is driving stock markets higher: gridlock.

Progressives, never in Biden’s camp, will be frustrated that their socialist vision will not be realized and will turn even more aggressively against the moderate wing of the party. Their power will grow. 

Prodded by the well-funded group, Democrats in 2024 will put forward a candidate more to their liking. The obvious choice will be Kamala Harris, Biden’s vice president and successor. 

Harris will lose. She is not impressive on the campaign trail; had the media allowed her more airtime, her lack of gravitas and other deficiencies would have soured voters. There is a reason why she did so poorly in the Democratic primary race.

No matter who the Democrats run, if the GOP nominates a pro-Trump candidate, who is true to his vision, they will retake the White House. Republicans are angry that, despite his accomplishments, President Trump was treated so viciously by the media, the establishment and by Democrats; they will again find their voice, and their votes.

Count on it. 

Liz Peek is a former partner of major bracket Wall Street firm Wertheim & Company. Follow her on Twitter @lizpeek.