Marist-NBC polls show Biden up 5 points in Pennsylvania, tied race in Arizona

Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden holds a narrow lead over President Trump in Pennsylvania, while the race in Arizona is a dead heat, according to a new NBC News/Marist poll released Monday. 

A day before Election Day, Biden leads Trump 51 percent to 46 percent among likely voters in Pennsylvania, a crucial battleground that could act as a tipping point in deciding the presidential race. The poll shows the race tightening since September, when a similar NBC News/Marist survey found Biden with a 9-point advantage in the state.

In Arizona, Biden and Trump are tied at 48 percent among likely voters, while another 4 percent of voters said they are undecided or will vote for another candidate. 

Trump carried Pennsylvania and Arizona in the 2016 presidential election, although most recent polling shows Biden with modest leads in both states. FiveThirtyEight’s polling averages show Biden leading Trump by roughly 5 points in Pennsylvania and fewer than 3 points in Arizona.

Trump’s approval in both states stands at 45 percent, according to the NBC News/Marist poll. In Pennsylvania, 49 percent say they disapprove of the job the president is doing in the White House, while 48 percent in Arizona disapprove. 

Pennsylvania, in particular, appears especially crucial for both candidates, who are barnstorming the state in the final sprint to Election Day. Polls show a tighter race there than in Michigan and Wisconsin, two other states Biden is trying to win after Trump carried them four years ago. 

The NBC News/Marist poll surveyed 772 likely voters in Pennsylvania and 717 in Arizona from Oct. 29-Nov. 1. The Pennsylvania results have a margin of sampling error of 4.4 percentage points, while the Arizona results have a margin of error of 4.5 percentage points.