Gideon holds 3-point lead over Collins in new poll

Maine state House Speaker Sara Gideon (D) holds a narrow 3-point lead over Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) in Maine’s closely watched Senate race, according to a new Colby College poll released on Wednesday. 

With less than a week to go before Election Day, the poll shows Gideon as the first choice of 46.6 percent of Maine voters, while 43.4 percent say Collins is their preferred candidate. Independents Max Linn and Lisa Savage notched 1.7 percent and 4.7 percent, respectively.

The Senate race in Maine is one the most competitive in the country this year and is among several contests that will determine party control of the Senate in 2021. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority, meaning Democrats need to pick up at least three and the White House to take control. 

Gideon has outraised and outspent Collins by tens of millions of dollars throughout her campaign, backed up by an army of Democratic donors who set their sights on ousting Collins after her 2018 vote to confirm Justice Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court.

But despite the heavy spending, Gideon has maintained only a narrow edge over Collins for much of the race, and election handicappers rate the contest as a toss-up. 

In the presidential race, however, Democratic nominee Joe Biden leads President Trump by a 13-point margin statewide, at 51-38 percent. 

Maine is one of only two states that divides its electoral votes between congressional districts, and Biden leads Trump by only 4 points — 46 to 42 percent — in the state’s 2nd Congressional District, which tends to lean toward Republicans. 

Still, Trump carried Maine’s 2nd District in 2016 and Biden’s narrow lead there suggests that the former vice president has a shot of flipping it in November.

The Colby College poll surveyed 879 Maine voters by telephone from Oct. 21 to 25. It has a margin of sampling error of 3.3 percentage points.