Biden found leading in Iowa by Monmouth poll

A new poll finds former Vice President Joe Biden alone at the top in Iowa, with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) bunched together and vying for second place.

The latest Monmouth University survey of Iowa finds Biden at 24 percent, followed by Sanders at 18 percent, Buttigieg at 17 percent and Warren at 15 percent.

Buttigieg led the same poll in November at 22 percent support, but has fallen by 5 points, while Warren has fallen by 3 points.

Biden and Sanders have each gained 5 points since November.

Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) registers 8 percent support in the poll, a 3-point gain since November.

Biden’s growth in support comes from voters over the age of 65 who were giving Buttigieg a look in the previous survey. Biden’s support among older voters has gone up by 15 points since November, while Buttigieg has lost 15 points.

“A plurality of older voters line up behind Biden, but others in that age group seem to be looking for a fresher face,” said Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray. “They appear to be split between Buttigieg and Klobuchar right now.”

The Des Moines Register’s Iowa poll released on Friday found Sanders in the lead at 20 percent, followed by Warren at 17, Biden at 16 and Buttigieg at 15.

Every recent survey of Iowa has found those four candidates bunched tightly in some order near the top. The RealClearPolitics average finds Sanders at 21.3, followed by Buttigieg at 21, Biden at 17.7 and Warren at 17.

The Monmouth survey finds voter opinions hardening with the Feb. 3 caucuses only three weeks away.

Forty-three percent of voters said they have firmly decided on their choice, up from 28 percent in November. Thirty-nine percent said there is at least a moderate chance they will support a different candidate on caucus night, including 11 percent who say this is a high possibility and 28 percent who say it is somewhat likely.

Biden’s support appears to be the firmest, with 65 percent of his supporters saying they are unlikely to change their minds, followed by Sanders at 61 percent, Buttigieg at 59 percent and Warren at 53 percent.

Buttigieg and Warren have the best net favorability ratings of the group, at 54 points positive, followed by Sanders at 48 percent, Klobuchar at 47 percent, Booker at 42 percent and Biden at 38 percent.

Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) polled at 4 percent in the survey, which was conducted before he dropped out of the race on Monday. If Booker’s supporters are assigned to their second choice, the poll would find Biden at 25 percent, followed by Sanders at 18, Buttigieg at 17, Warren at 16 and Klobuchar at 9.

The Monmouth University poll of 405 likely caucusgoers in Iowa was conducted between Jan. 9 and Jan. 12 and has a 4.9 percentage point margin of error.