Donald Trump can out-debate Joe Biden with this counterintuitive strategy

Never before have two candidates faced off on the national stage with 100 percent name-recognition and nearly 100 percent of the population having strong opinions about both.

Nor has a debate ever happened this early in a campaign, before either candidate is even officially his respective party’s nominee.

That distinction is part of the reason why strategy, especially on the part of former President Donald Trump, will be key. Trump must think strategically on two levels: Yes, he has to win the debate, but he doesn’t want to land a devastating knockout blow.

If Joe Biden falls on his face and embarrasses himself, the Democratic Party establishment still has time to convince him to drop out. And that’s the only way he gets out — of his own volition.

That possibility, of course, comes with its own problems that Democrats aren’t ready to deal with — what to do with the vice president, for example. Kamala Harris might be the only politician in the country less popular than Biden. Replacing him with her would be a bit like replacing bald tires with flat ones. Sure, you end up with a change of tires, but now they’re even worse.

It is a curse for Democrats that so much of their existence is based on the embrace of identity politics. It means they cannot avoid elevating Harris if Biden chooses not to run. The Democratic establishment would surely prefer California Governor Gavin Newsom (D), a much slicker politician and better messenger, but he’s a rich, straight, white guy. (What’s more, if Newsom were the nominee, it would raise constitutional questions about his fellow Californian Harris staying on the ticket as his running mate.)

To bypass the first female, Black and Asian vice president for a rich, straight, white guy would go against too much of what the party stands for, alienating much of its base of people who have bought into identity politics completely.

While that possibility may be appealing to the Trump campaign, it would not be ideal. The public knows Joe Biden and, if every poll is to be believed, they really, really don’t like him. Better to fight the devil people know than to start over from scratch defining one they don’t.

That said, Trump still has to win the debate. He and his team have set the bar so low for Biden in the debate that he’d need a shovel not to clear it.

If Trump wins, it will be with that as the backdrop.

The way to win is to do something seemingly un-Trumpian: let Joe Biden speak and rebut him on the facts.

If that seems counter-intuitive for Trump, that’s because it is. He is seen as bombastic and interrupting based on the 2020 debates. But if you watch that debate you see that both men were doing that — it stuck only with Trump.

And if you look back to the 2008 and 2012 vice presidential debates, where Biden squared off with Sarah Palin and Paul Ryan, he was very animated during those contests — smiling mockingly or interrupting both of his Republicans opponents. Trump gets the rap for being the one who interrupts because he does interrupt, and because it’s his brand. But Biden was not exactly a silent participant being steamrolled by the aggressive orange man.

Conventional wisdom has Trump disadvantaged by CNN’s muted microphones rule, but the interrupting Biden will be muzzled by it as well. While Trump’s default will likely be to roll his eyes, Biden’s has always been to mug and smile widely while shaking his head. An eye roll conveys exacerbation or disgust, whereas smirks and smiles convey arrogance.

Biden will have to back up that arrogance with a command of facts he has never demonstrated.

People don’t expect Trump to have a command of facts or to stick to them. If he does, he will have exceeded expectations. Biden is portrayed as a master of policy, if only because he’s been at it for so long. If Trump can point out where he’s wrong — and he will be wrong — it will fluster Biden, who will have to wait his turn to respond. That will make Trump look presidential to the very group of voters he desperately needs to see him that way. He will seem calm and confident while Biden anxiously shifts around, unable to vocalize what he’s feeling.

Everyone views the rules as favoring Biden over Trump, but there is little reason to believe that is the case. Trump knew what the rules were when he agreed to this debate on Biden’s terms and turf. If he can turn them around to his advantage while showing an understanding of the issues Democrats and the media have never given him credit for, Trump will easily win the debate.

Derek Hunter is host of the Derek Hunter Podcast and a former staffer for the late Sen. Conrad Burns (R-Mont.).