Don’t expect the frozen race between Trump, Biden to thaw any time soon 

Indictments, convictions, rants, gaffes and the imminent death of democracy (according to some) — the 2024 race just keeps on coming. And yet, the polling has barely moved between President Biden and Donald Trump over the past six months. The ballot test has, at best, wobbled. 

The race looks frozen, with two sets of hyperpartisans entrenched and a disgusted middle that not only loathes both candidates, it apparently loathes even making a choice at this point. 

It is remarkable, given all the events of the past year. But, then again, both Biden and Trump have hardly distinguished themselves. Biden continues to mumble and stumble whenever he has to speak. His administration has no answer for inflation and his executive order on illegal immigration is very little and very late. Biden’s State of the Union was a dud, his humanitarian pier sank and both the Israelis and Hamas ignore him with impunity. 

As for Trump, all that has happened with him is a 34-count criminal conviction, two major civil suit losses, regular rants on Truth Social and an all-you-can-eat buffet of promises to anyone he thinks he can buy off (to be fair, Biden is giving away as many freebies as he can, regardless of legality). 

Stuck in the ballot test 

In both the RealClearPolitics rolling average and the 538 rolling average, the race has barely moved over the past several months — and only a bit more in the past year. The RCP national average had Trump leading by 1.2 points on June 13, 2023. As of the writing of this analysis, Trump leads by less than 1 percent. The 538 averages, which considers a larger number of polls, has shown even less movement since March. Trump has led throughout, but never by more than 2.2 percent. 

Within the RCP averages there have been more variation than the 538 average, but that’s a relative term. Since June 2023, Trump’s maximum polling average has been 47.8 percent, and his minimum has been 43 percent. Biden has ranged from 46.7 percent to 42.9 percent. Trump’s biggest lead was on Jan. 26, at just over 4 percent, but that did not last long. The RCP average is somewhat skewed by including “forced ballot” results where undecided voters are pressed on which way they are leaning. In my view, categorizing these “leaners” is not useful until after Labor Day. 

The 538 averages have barely moved. Trump has ranged from 43.2 percent on March 29 to 40.9 percent in the most recent average. Biden has ranged from a high of 41.9 percent on March 25 down to 39.5 percent on May 30. For both polling averages, the changes look more like typical sampling error than any real movement. 

What has made Trump a favorite in the betting markets is his lead in several battleground states. The former president has managed to take consistent leads outside or near the limits of polling margin of error in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina. Trump has very slight leads in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — but those states are really tossups. Biden has notably closed the gap in Michigan. 

More About polling than politics 

Despite all the events, trials and money spent, the reality is that the polls are moving but the electorate is not. Both candidates remain disliked by a majority of voters and neither has made a compelling case for unhappy swing voters to shift the race. It is the polls that are moving based on sampling decisions and normal statistical error. 

We can see this most markedly in the approval numbers. Over the past year, Trump has ranged from a negative 18.7 percent in the 538 approval tracking on July 17 to a negative 7.7 percent on Feb. 28. He is currently down 12.3 percent. The Biden spread was negative 11 points last August, but has eroded to negative 18.5 percent, near his low point. 

But looking at the RCP political leaders’ favorability listing of each poll shows wide and consistent variation. For the past year, only three polls have given Trump a net positive approval: Rasmussen and YouGov one time each, while Harvard-Harris did so six times. But Harvard-Harris is an equal-opportunity Pollyanna, giving Biden some of his best approvals, including just 3 points negative in November. 

Conversely, ABC News/Ipsos has given Trump and Biden their worst approvals, with Biden scoring negative 24 points and negative 22 points in January and last June, respectively. Trump has scored even more abysmal negative 31 points and negative 29 points in November and last August. 

The problem with these two polls is they are consistently far off from other polling. It is perfectly reasonably for an occasional out-of-step result, but only Harvard-Harris thinks Trump has a net favorable approval rating. Rasmussen tilts a bit toward Trump, while YouGov tilts a bit toward Biden, but that can be explained reasonably by voter turnout assumptions. To be off the polling averages by up to 10 points repeatedly says that you have a sampling problem. 

The good news for each campaign is that there are plenty of polls to pick and choose from. Over the course of a week, both Biden and Trump can be confident some poll will oblige them with relatively good news. 

Thus far this contest has featured two big turning points. The shambolic retreat from Afghanistan was a polling and political disaster for Biden. He had scored all positive approval ratings from his inauguration until Aug. 11, 2021 — the eve of the Taliban takeover. After two months of back-and-forth, Biden scored a negative 5 points in the Oct. 11 Morning Consult Poll, and it’s been red ink ever since. 

The outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war triggered a further drop in Biden’s approvals, and the aftermath has seen Trump take modest leads in Arizona, Georgia and Nevada. Trump can reasonably claim 268 electoral votes — close but not enough to win. Biden is in worse shape, needing to win the tossup states and not get a surprise upset anywhere else. 

Given the frozen status of the race, the upcoming debate could be another turning point. Most likely, they will stumble through and give the unhappy undecideds more reason to sit on the fence. However, both of these old men certainly have the ability to melt down or commit a catastrophic gaffe. If not, expect this race to continue in stasis until autumn, when that slice of voters in the middle will have to make a choice. 

Keith Naughton is co-founder of Silent Majority Strategies, a public and regulatory affairs consulting firm, and a former Pennsylvania political campaign consultant.