The Memo: Gaza cease-fire push could determine Biden’s 2024 fate

President Biden is facing a critical moment on an issue that threatens to capsize his reelection hopes — the conflict in Gaza.

The president has put his full weight behind a push for a six-week cease-fire between Israel and Hamas that could, he says, lead to a permanent cessation of hostilities.

But it is a risky gambit for a multitude of reasons. For a start, Biden is caught in politically dangerous crosscurrents. The left wants him to put far greater restraints on Israel. Pro-Israel Democrats are wary of any signs of a dilution of U.S. support. And Republicans stand eager to condemn him as being “soft on terror.”  

Meanwhile, there is the more practical danger that the proposed deal could founder on the rocks of Israeli or Palestinian resistance.

Such a prospect would deplete Biden’s political capital even further.

A Harvard CAPS/Harris poll last month showed Biden with his lowest approval yet on his handling of the conflict — just 36 percent.

As the cease-fire maneuvers continue, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been invited to Washington to address Congress.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) in the end signed on to the letter formally inviting Netanyahu, which originated with Republicans.

But progressives are sure to protest a visit from a foreign leader who stands suspected of war crimes. Even Biden — in a new interview with Time magazine published Tuesday — suggested Netanyahu could be keeping the war in Gaza going for his own political benefit.

The human toll of the conflict is catastrophic, with around 36,000 Palestinians having been killed in reprisal for the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks that killed almost 1,200 Israelis. Civilians account for most of the dead on both sides. 

There is also an unrelenting humanitarian crisis in Gaza, where around 80 percent of the population has been displaced and around 1 million people have recently fled Rafah.  

Polls show that young and progressive voters, in particular, are unhappy with Biden’s Gaza policies. 

Democratic gloom about the conflict’s potential impact on this year’s election is deepened by the possibility of disorder at the party’s national convention, set for Chicago in August.

From the left’s perspective, the solution is for Biden to fully abandon his embrace of Netanyahu and adopt a much tougher line.

Allowing the Israeli assault on Gaza to continue is “not an option for President Biden,” said Usamah Andrabi, a spokesperson for Justice Democrats, a progressive group.

“He needs to do everything he can to ensure that this violence, these massacres, come to an end, and all parties agree to an immediate and permanent cease-fire,” Andrabi added.

The activist also highlighted polling that demonstrates widespread support among Democratic voters for a cease-fire and for imposing conditions upon continued military aid to Israel.

But other voices strike a different tone.

Joel Rubin, who served as a deputy assistant secretary of state during the Obama administration, said he believes an obligation is on the left “to advocate for a cease-fire right now, to push for Hamas to accept this cease-fire.”

Referring to left-wing members of Congress, Rubin added, “I don’t think I’ve seen many of the members who are very critical of Israel calling for Hamas to accept this deal.”

One rare note of unanimity among the different factions is on the political necessity for Biden to be able to at least turn down the intensity of the conflict in Gaza.

From an electoral perspective, “he needs to take the heat out [of] the process so he can talk about the winning arguments,” said Democratic strategist Hank Sheinkopf. “If he can show he is trying to resolve [the Gaza conflict] in a serious fashion, it becomes easier to talk about the economy or abortion.”

Rubin agreed, saying that any cease-fire of meaningful duration would “significantly improve the atmosphere, certainly within the Democratic Party.”

Real obstacles to a deal remain. 

The furthest-right members of Netanyahu’s coalition government — National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich — are threatening to quit over the proposed agreement. 

Hamas, as of Tuesday evening, had issued no firm response to the proposal Biden outlined last Friday.

There is also some confusion on the crucial question of whether a permanent cessation of hostilities is on offer while Hamas remains in existence.

Last Friday, Biden said that the second phase of the proposed agreement would lead to the “cessation of hostilities permanently” so long as Hamas “lives up to its commitments.”

But asked Tuesday by The Hill whether Israel had signed up to the idea that there could be a permanent peace while Hamas stills exists in a meaningful way, State Department spokesperson Matt Miller replied: “No. They are signed up to an agreement that leads to a permanent cessation of hostilities — but with a number of provisions that have to be negotiated.”

Meanwhile, of course, Biden is guaranteed to face attacks from the GOP.

“Weak Joe Biden is only now scrambling to fix the DISASTER he created in the Middle East because he’s afraid of losing the Election,” former President Trump wrote on social media on Tuesday.

It all leaves Biden in a bind — and one that he will need the compliance of Netanyahu and Hamas to get out of.

The Memo is a reported column by Niall Stanage.