Regardless of the Trump verdict, Biden’s in trouble 

It will be a few weeks before the fallout of the Trump guilty verdict can be properly assessed. But what won’t change are the fundamental problems facing President Biden’s re-election campaign. Of course, Team Biden remains in the denial stage about “misinformed” voters, unfair media and the whole typical menu of excuses and self-pity. 

Biden’s polling problems have been evident for months. The incumbent president fell behind Donald Trump in several key swing states over the course of 2023, and he has remained down since then. The key Great Lakes states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are perhaps coin flips, with Trump generally holding a very thin lead. His national approval ratings, according to the RealClearPolitics average, continue to be awful.  

As bad as Biden’s polling is, there is little prospect of improvement — at least through any effort by Team Biden. The Democrats have been far outspending Trump and the Republicans throughout the Biden administration, to little effect. The advertising blitz in states like Pennsylvania is not working. Biden has been trying to claw back Black voters for over a year to his 2020 vote level, and that’s not working either. 

For Team Biden, it’s the same old excuse: bad marketing. They keep swallowing their own propaganda about their “achievements.” But the fact is, Joe Biden has not delivered for the American people. According to The Economist (hardly a pro-Trump outlet), Biden’s infrastructure spending boost has been completely consumed by inflation. In fact, infrastructure spending in real dollars is down. 

Their other signature bills, from energy transition to advanced chipmaking and reducing drug prices, have either not begun to deliver benefits or barely trickled down to the general public. Meanwhile, health insurance costs are expected to go up an average of 7 percent for 2024. 

Left and out of touch 

What is worse for Biden is that he has nowhere to go on the big issues facing the country. He faces two problems with his loud, angry progressive base: They are out of touch with the swing voters who will decide the race and are likely to oppose any measures that will address the top issues for swing voters. 

According to the most recent YouGov poll, the top issue for voters is inflation — and it’s not close. Twenty-two percent name inflation as their top issue, with 76 percent of that share calling it “very important.” Inflation is on top for all demographic groups and Democrats, but is second to climate change for liberals.  

Among the top 10 overall issues, 67 percent of Democrats call inflation “very important,” running behind health care, civil rights and 1 point below climate change. Sixty-two percent of liberals call inflation “very important,” which trails civil rights by 19 points, climate change and abortion. In fact, inflation ranks just seventh among the top 10 issues called “very important” by liberals. In contrast, inflation is the No.1 most cited issue as “very important” by both independents (78 percent) and Republicans (85 percent). 

While immigration is an outlier with Republicans, ranking as their second most important issue, independents still rank it in their top five (8 percent name it most important) and 49 percent call it “very important” — also middle of the pack. Yet Democrats and independents rank immigration as among their least important issues, with a mere 1 percent of both liberals and Democrats naming it their most important issue. 

Just as significant is how big an outlier both climate change and abortion are for Democrats and liberals.  

Climate change is cited as “very important” by 68 percent of Democrats and 78 percent of liberals as opposed to just 40 percent of independents. It is also the No.1 issue for liberals, while ranking dead last for Republicans. 

Abortion is “very important” to 65 percent of Democrats and 75 percent of liberals, while only 38 percent of independents agree, among the lowest of all issues polled. In ranking issues, 12 percent of Democrats and 14 percent of liberals consider abortion the most important issue, compared to 4 percent of independents. 

The bottom line is that the gravity of the Democratic Party is inexorably pulling Biden away from voters he needs: independents and Republicans who are wary of Trump. While the Biden administration and campaign have focused on abortion and climate change, the issues at the forefront of these key swing constituencies have moldered. 

Independents are notably sour. For their top two issues, Biden is far, far under water. On jobs and the economy, their second most important issue, only 25 percent approve while 62 percent disapprove. As for inflation, Biden rates a catastrophic 17 percent approve against 71 percent disapprove. Hispanic voters, who are melting away from Biden, give him a 30 percent approve against 61 percent disapprove on inflation, also their top issue. 

Biden’s policy dead-end 

The double-whammy for Biden is his inability to even address the key issues for swing voters. His progressive base simply will not let him. The entire policy basis of the progressive left and the Biden administration is inflationary. 

High government spending, which has generated an historically high budget deficit as a percentage of GDP for an economy not in recession, is a fundamental tenet of the left. Such excessive spending could be reduced by raising taxes, but tax hikes have been limited, leaving the nation with a massively expansionary fiscal policy. 

Such spending is coupled with an avalanche of new rules and regulations, which also raise costs for businesses, state and local governments, and individuals. More and more regulation is another priority of the progressive left. Add to that a massive wave of immigration — which can only add to pressures on housing supply and costs — and you have the recipe for rising inflation. 

It is left to the Federal Reserve to rein in inflation by maintaining high interest rates (which increases costs for mortgages) and withdrawing liquidity (quantitative tightening). Biden is stuck, unable to crack down on immigration and unwilling to cut down on regulations and spending. No solutions and no options. 

Trotting out the old, hoary tropes about “greedflation” and Big Oil conspiracies is the only thing Team Biden has left. And maybe prayer. But clearly the public is not buying Biden’s excuses and filibustering. 

In the end, Biden is left hoping that Trump will implode either in a slow burn post-verdict or on the debate stage. Of course, it seems just as likely that shaky, gaffe-prone Biden will have his own meltdown. But the fact remains, the polling for Biden is terrible across the board, and his policy options for addressing his problems are unacceptable to his base. 

No amount of TV advertising will fix that. 

Keith Naughton is co-founder of Silent Majority Strategies, a public and regulatory affairs consulting firm, and a former Pennsylvania political campaign consultant.