Trump leads Biden in 5 key battleground states: Polling

Former President Trump leads President Biden in hypothetical head-to-head general election match-ups in five of six key battleground states, polling released Monday shows.

The New York Times/Siena College/Philadelphia Inquirer polling, conducted from April 28 to May 9, shows Trump leading Biden among registered voters in Pennsylvania (47 percent to 44 percent), Arizona (49 percent to 42 percent), Michigan (49 percent to 42 percent), Georgia (49 percent to 39 percent) and Nevada (50 percent to 38 percent).

The polling shows Biden leading in Wisconsin, 47 percent to 45 percent, in the same hypothetical match-up.

The results are similar among likely voters, with the difference between the two candidates moving only 1 or 2 percentage points in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania. Biden’s performance in Michigan, however, improves by 5 points among likely voters, giving him a 1-point lead over Trump, 47 percent to 46 percent. In Wisconsin, Biden loses his edge over Trump, who leads Biden among likely voters, 47 percent to 46 percent.

When third-party and independent candidates are included in the poll, the results are similar. Trump leads Biden, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. maintaining third place in Arizona (42 percent to 33 percent to 10 percent), Georgia (39 percent to 31 percent to 9 percent), Michigan (38 percent to 36 percent to 9 percent), Nevada (41 percent to 27 percent to 12 percent) and Pennsylvania (40 percent to 36 percent to 10 percent).

Trump and Biden are tied in Wisconsin among registered voters, with 38 percent each, and Kennedy receives 9 percent support.

The other third-party and independent candidates never receive more than 2 percent in any of the match-ups, pollsters noted.

The results of the polls have not changed much since the last Times/Siena College polls conducted in October 2023, when Trump similarly led Biden in all five states except Wisconsin, where Biden had more support.

In the last several months, the Biden campaign has ramped up voter outreach efforts as Trump has at times been stuck in courtrooms, as he faces multiple legal battles.

A Democratic pollster for the Biden campaign noted that polls have been inconsistent, and some have put Biden ahead of Trump.

“The only consistency in recent public polls is inconsistency. These results need to be weighed against the 30-plus polls that show Biden up and gaining – which is exactly why drawing broad conclusions about the race based on results from one poll is a mistake. The reality is that many voters are not paying close attention to the election and have not started making up their minds — a dynamic also reflected in today’s poll. These voters will decide this election and only the Biden campaign is doing the work to win them over,” Biden pollster Geoff Garin said in a statement.

The Hill has reached out to the Trump campaign for a statement. 

The new polling included 4,097 registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The margin of error is 1.8 percentage points as a total sample of all the states. Each state’s margin of error ranged from 3.6 percentage points in Pennsylvania to 4.6 percentage points in Georgia.

The national polling average from The Hill/Decision Desk HQ has Trump and Biden essentially tied, 44.7 percent to 44.6 percent, respectively. When Kennedy is included in the polling average, Trump’s lead is still under 1 percentage points, with 41.1 percent, compared to Biden’s 40.3 percent and Kennedy’s 8 percent.

Updated at 9:59 a.m.