Make China stop helping Russia’s war — the hard way, if necessary

Last month, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken traveled to China to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping and other Chinese dignitaries. During their meeting, they discussed American-Sino relations, economic policies and practices, foreign exchange programs and China’s relationship with Taiwan. They also focused part of their discussion on Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine.

Since the start of the full-scale military incursion in February 2022, the international community has worked hard to punish Russia for its behavior. Several countries around the globe have imposed stiff economic sanctions against the Russian Federation. Some Russian banks were removed from the international financial messaging system, known as SWIFT. Numerous Western countries reduced their reliance on Russian gas and oil.

Hundreds of Russian oligarchs and politicians had their assets frozen or seized, and there are now discussions to use these assets to force Russia to rebuild Ukraine. And the Russian Federation was expelled from several international organizations due to its invasion of Ukraine. It is estimated that Russia has lost hundreds of billions of dollars due to these international sanctions.

Despite these punishments, Russia has done little to alter its behavior. Instead, it has sought ways to undermine and circumvent international sanctions. One way has been to strengthen its relationship with China.

Throughout the war, China has refused to condemn the Russian Federation for its invasion. Chinese authorities instead have attempted to portray themselves as neutral on the war. But recent findings suggest that the Chinese have provided the Russians with an economic and defense lifeline. For two years, Chinese firms have been supplying the Russians with “weaponry and other banned goods.” This has allowed Russia to continue its unjust war.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has previously expressed his gratitude for the Russo-Sino relationship. The two leaders are scheduled to meet later this May, when they will discuss the invasion of Ukraine in further detail.

Now, with the Russian invasion of Ukraine entering its third year, the international community is exploring new options on how to force Russia to end its war. According to Secretary Blinken, one way is to pressure China to stop assisting the Russian Federation.

To date, China’s support for Russia’s war has allowed the Russians to “ramp up [the Russian] production of tanks, munitions and armored vehicles” for the war. Enhancing Russia’s industrial base will allow the Russians to produce the equipment they need to support its ongoing invasion of Ukraine. This will lead to a prolonged war. An extended conflict will lead to further death and destruction in Ukraine. A prolonged war would further contribute to a food crisis in Africa and Asia. It would also lead to an increase in global food and gas prices.

The international community must pressure China to stop supporting Russia to prevent the continuation of this war and its further global consequences. During his visit, Blinken stated that Chinese support for Russia would “undermine European and transatlantic security.” He also called on China to use its influence to persuade Russia to stop the war. The statements, however, were ignored, as the Chinese denied that they were assisting the Russians in their war.

In response, the U.S. and its allies got serious about China’s involvement with Russia. On May 1, the U.S. introduced a new list of sanctions against the Russian Federation. The list also contained Chinese organizations that provided Russia with the materials needed for the war. American officials said that they would announce further punishments for Chinese companies and organizations, should they continue to assist Russia’ during its ‘s war effort.

The Americans are not alone in this new policy. The European Union has also will soon impose new sanctions on Chinese companies assisting the Russians in their war. Through these coordinated efforts, Chinese companies will learn the hard way that those who opt to work on Russia’s behalf will be punished.

Economic sanctions on international companies have previously deterred them from conducting business with Russia. Pressure from the international community on foreign companies has also been successful. Since the start of the full-scale invasion, over 1,000 companies have terminated their operations in Russia. Adopting a similar policy with Chinese companies would see these organizations lose millions of dollars. The potential punishments should be enough to incentivize these companies to stop further business with Russia.

Aside from economic penalties, how else might the international community pressure China? Another avenue would be to pursue Chinese banks that work with Russian banks. The Chinese understand that their trade network and economic successes rely heavily on international cooperation. In 2023, China exported over $3 trillion of goods to the U.S.

The Chinese also understand the significance of being involved in SWIFT. If the international community were to propose removing some Chinese banks from this international financial messaging system due to their involvement with Russian banks, it would send a clear message to all Chinese organizations. According to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, it is believed that the Chinese would instantly comply with the West as China would not “want to lose access to Western markets.”

Imposing these punishments on China will be difficult. But the international community should continue to explore how it can punish Russia for its ongoing invasion of Ukraine. The consequences of the war have been costly already, and the situation will become dire should the war continue.

Therefore, it is time for the world to pursue other alternatives to force Russia to stop its war. Western leaders should coordinate with one another to try to persuade China, an ally of Russia, to stop its assistance. It will take time, and it will be challenging, but this option may be just what’s needed to stop Russia’s unjust war.

Mark Temnycky is an accredited freelance journalist covering Eurasian affairs and a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center.