Gallego, Lake neck and neck in Arizona Senate race: Poll

Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) and Republican Kari Lake are neck and neck in the race for Arizona’s Senate seat this year, according to a new poll. 

The poll from Emerson College Polling/The Hill found Gallego leading Lake by just over 2 points, 45.3 percent to 43.1 percent, within the poll’s margin of error, while 11.6 percent said they were undecided. The race is to succeed retiring independent Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema and will likely help decide which party controls the Senate in the next session of Congress. 

Pollsters found Gallego’s slight edge over Lake comes in part from more unified support among members of his party. The poll showed 87.4 percent of Democrats support Gallego, while about 80 percent of Republicans support Lake. 

Gallego has support from 15 percent of Republicans, but Lake has support from only 6.5 percent of Democrats. The candidates are essentially tied among independent respondents. 

The race was rocked earlier this month by the Arizona Supreme Court ruling that upheld a law from 1864 banning abortion in nearly all cases with an exception for protecting the life of the mother but not cases of rape or incest. The law is not yet in effect but is set to overtake the state’s current 15-week restriction. 

Both Gallego and Lake issued statements against the ruling after it was released, but Lake has since flipped her position, saying “unfortunately” state officials don’t plan to enforce the ban. The former Arizona GOP gubernatorial nominee had previously voiced support for the law while running for governor in 2022 against now-Gov. Katie Hobbs (D). 

The poll found abortion was only the third most stated most important issue facing Arizonans among respondents, with 12.4 percent saying so. Immigration was first with 27.9 percent, followed by the economy with 24.7 percent, both issues that have received widespread attention nationwide. 

Lake led overwhelmingly among respondents who listed immigration as the most important issue with 83 percent to Gallego’s 13 percent. She led somewhat more modestly among those who chose the economy with 50 percent to Gallego’s 32 percent. 

Gallego led overwhelmingly among those who chose abortion as their top issue with 89 percent to Lake’s 6 percent. 

The poll was conducted among 1,000 registered voters from April 25 to 29. The margin of error was 3 points.