Baldwin narrowly leads Republican in Wisconsin Senate race: Poll

Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) narrowly leads her likely Republican opponent in her reelection bid for another term in the Senate, according to a poll released Thursday.

The Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey found Baldwin ahead by 3 points, 45 percent to 42 percent, over Eric Hovde, a businessman and unsuccessful candidate for the seat in 2012. Fourteen percent were undecided.

Pollsters found a notable gender gap between Baldwin and Hovde’s performance. Baldwin leads among women by 14 points, 50 percent to 36 percent, while Hovde leads among men by 9 points, 49 percent to 40 percent. 

Baldwin has a slight advantage among independents, 41 percent to 36 percent. 

The economy was rated as the most important issue by 35 percent of respondents, while health care was the second-most common answer with 11 percent. Immigration and threats to democracy then followed with 10 percent each. 

Wisconsin will be one of the most significant battlegrounds of 2024, with former President Trump and President Biden trying to court the Badger State’s voters. The state voted for Trump in 2016 before flipping to Biden in 2020. 

Baldwin is seeking her third term after being comfortably elected to her seat in 2012 and 2018. Hovde is facing some opposition in the GOP primary for the nomination but has received establishment backing, including from the National Republican Senatorial Committee. 

The state’s congressional primaries will be held in August.

The survey found Trump leading Biden in the state by 3 points, 46 percent to 43 percent. With third-party candidates included, Trump’s lead remains at 3 points, at 43 percent to Biden’s 40 percent, while Robert F. Kennedy Jr. earned 6 percent support and Cornel West and Jill Stein each have 1 percent. 

The poll was conducted March 14-18 among 1,000 registered voters. The margin of error was 3 percentage points.