Iran is playing a long game, and Washington is losing

The recent U.S. bombing campaign against Iranian proxies in Iraq and Syria, in response to the Jan. 28 drone strike that killed three American troops in Jordan, did not go far enough. Because the strikes did not target any Iranians, any assets inside Iran or any of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) vessels in the Persian Gulf, these strikes will ultimately fail to reestablish deterrence and American credibility in the Middle East.

In the months since the Israeli bombardment of Gaza, which came in response to the gruesome Oct. 7 attack, American troops have been under near-constant fire from rockets, artillery and drones launched by Shia groups controlled and supplied by the IRGC. More than 180 such attacks have injured dozens of American service members.

Meanwhile, the Houthis, an Iranian-backed group based in Yemen, have unleashed chaos on the global supply chain and sent shockwaves through international markets by firing rockets and drones at commercial vessels navigating the Red Sea.

Before the deadly drone attack in Jordan, the U.S. response was tepid — a handful of pinprick strikes on warehouses and facilities in Iraq, Syria and Yemen. After each such response, the attacks by these groups resumed within days.

The response to the attack in Jordan was supposed to be different, because three American Soldiers were killed. Although this drone attack on a remote American outpost in northeast Jordan was consistent with the many that came before it, President Biden promised a more forceful response. That response strike began with 85 strikes targeting these militia groups in the border region between Iraq and Syria. Then, on Feb. 7, an American precision drone in Baghdad killed a senior commander from Kataib Hezbollah, a militia force which the White House holds responsible for the attack in Jordan. Concurrently, the U.S. and UK continue to conduct strikes on locations associated with Yemen’s Houthi rebels.

These U.S. strikes are a tactical response to a specific incident, not a comprehensive strategy to counter Iran’s malign influence in the region. Focusing on proxy groups in Iraq and Syria does not address the dark heart of the chaos and violence over the last four months. The IRGC will restock the shelves of these groups within a matter of weeks, and the feedback loop will continue of attacks on American troops followed by hollow American responses. More American troops will be injured, and the likelihood of another drone getting through and killing more Americans remains high.

To restore deterrence, the U.S. must change what it is doing, instead hitting targets that Iran cares about: IRGC leaders, Iran’s military bases and its spy ships loitering in the Red Sea. For more than a decade, the mullahs in Tehran have built a robust force of dozens of militia groups that operate in the region under the umbrella of the Iranian regime. The IRGC provides them with funding, weapons, and strategic guidance. While targeting these proxies may take out their rockets, missiles and drones and disrupt their immediate activities, it does little beyond the short-term.

Iran has an enormous supply of inexpensive but deadly drones manufactured by Shahed Aviation Industries Research Center, an Iranian company subordinate to the IRGC. Similarly, Tehran has a massive volume of missiles — the largest such arsenal in the Middle East — that it can quickly ship to fighters in Iraq and Syria. Iran began investing in drones and missiles in the mid-1980s amidst its ruinous war with Iraq to compensate for its decisive disadvantage against America in conventional military capability. Now, this investment is paying off.

Iran is playing a long game in the region, while the Biden administration is playing one of the shortest games of all, aiming to avoid escalation ahead of the November 2024 presidential election.

Iran is a nation abundant in oil resources and possessing significant geopolitical influence. Rather than engaging in short-term strategies, Iran adopts a patient approach, focusing on goals decades away. While the U.S. has superior military capabilities, Iran believes it has superior resolve and will therefore ultimately prevail in any confrontation with the U.S. The mullahs seek to outlast the U.S. in the Middle East, gradually expanding their influence and undermining regional stability.

Deterrence is not a matter of force, but of will. For deterrence to work, an adversary must believe that the U.S. has the will to strike at his interests. In Iran’s case, regime survival is the greatest interest. The clerics in Tehran will only back down if they believe an American attack places their power at risk.

Ahead of the most recent strikes, National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby repeated that the U.S. seeks to avoid war with Iran — a clear message that the U.S. has no interest in threatening the regime in Tehran. This inherently contradicts any effort at deterrence.

American airstrikes in Iraq and Syria in exchange for free shots against American bases is a tradeoff that Iran is willing to accept. By targeting a militia leader in Baghdad in response to attacks on U.S. troops, the U.S. essentially exchanged a slap on the wrist for the loss of American lives. This pattern of response only encourages Iran and its proxies, reinforcing the perception that they can act with impunity.

To effectively deter Iran and its proxies, the U.S. must adopt a more proactive and comprehensive strategy, inclusive of targeting Iranian assets directly, imposing meaningful costs for aggression and signaling a willingness to escalate if necessary.

The time for half-measures is over; the U.S. must take the required steps to confront Iran’s malign activities and secure a more stable and peaceful future for the region.

Joe Buccino is a retired U.S. Army colonel with five combat tours in the Middle East. He served as U.S. Central Command communications director from 2021 until September 2023. His views do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of Defense or any other organization.