Ukraine debate heads back to square one

Democrats are looking to separate Ukraine aid from the Senate border deal that’s now in tatters and move quickly on funding for the embattled country, a plan that will once again come up against a skeptical Republican-led House.

The Senate on Tuesday shifted away from the border and immigration package and toward approving a separate deal on Ukraine, Israel and the Indo-Pacific, with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) trying to tee up a procedural vote to move forward without the border component.

The shift brings Congress back to square one as proponents of the aid and White House negotiators will once again have to convince critical GOP lawmakers to support Ukraine after they blocked efforts to send money to Kyiv last year. 

While the Senate still has plenty of hurdles to jump through in moving its foreign aid package — and its passage is not a sure thing — the greatest resistance would almost certainly come from the House.

Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has shown a willingness to support the country, but the influential right flank of his party hasn’t. He’s also signaled he wants to separate foreign policy priorities.

While the Senate is pushing the broad package to fund Ukraine, Israel and the Indo-Pacific this week, the House tried and failed Tuesday night to move a stand-alone Israel funding package.

Before the vote, Johnson said Congress should “deal with these measures and these issues independently.” 

“I think they merit that, they deserve that,” Johnson said at a Tuesday press conference about funding each of the national security priorities. “We’ll talk about the Ukraine measure going forward, that’s not been abandoned.” 

Ukraine has warned it is running out of ammunition and resources to hold back Russian forces after U.S. aid dried up at the end of last year. 

Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), a member of the House Armed Services Committee and an ardent supporter of Ukraine, said he was concerned about Ukraine aid but hopes “cooler heads prevail and realize we have to take care of our national strategic interest.” 

“Our national strategic interest is an independent Ukraine,” he told The Hill. “I’m going to advocate for that. And I know there’s a good number of Republicans I have been talking to the last two weeks, we’re gonna push military aid. Let’s emphasize that, let’s get that done.” 

President Biden first proposed sending more than $13 billion to Ukraine in August, a proposal that skeptical House Republicans sank. 

After the breakout of the Israel-Hamas war in October, Biden asked Congress for a $106 billion package to support Ukraine, Israel, the Indo-Pacific and to reform the border. The idea was to tie Ukraine aid to the border, a GOP priority, in a bid to win over skeptical Republicans. A common complaint from critical lawmakers is that the U.S. should secure its own borders before trying to protect another country like Ukraine.  

After months of crafting a compromise bill, the Senate legislation to fund those priorities included $118 billion — $60 billion of which would go to Ukraine.

Senate Republicans — and a few Democrats — killed the legislation on the floor Tuesday.

Now, without a border tie-in, Ukraine aid will return to face a growing number of Republicans who are asking serious questions about support for Ukraine. 

Rep. Mike Waltz (R-Fla.) said he had key questions, including the length of the commitment to Ukraine and the strategy to win back all of Ukraine’s territory from Russia, which holds about 18 percent of the eastern region of Ukraine. 

“We’ve asked [the administration] behind closed doors [and] still can’t get a straight answer,” he told The Hill. “’Blank check and we’ll figure it out’ is not sustainable or sufficient.” 

Other Republicans want Europe to do more for Ukraine. The European Union has supplied more than $6 billion in U.S. dollars for security assistance to Kyiv since the war began, and allies have delivered billions each separately.  

Some countries including Estonia and Lithuania are delivering more aid as a percentage of their gross domestic product than Washington.  

Rep. Keith Self (R-Texas) pointed approvingly to Germany’s plan to double its commitment to Ukraine. The German Parliament passed a defense budget with more than $8 billion in U.S. dollars for Ukraine last week. 

“Absolutely not,” he said when asked whether the U.S. should get more aid to Ukraine. “I want Germany to step up. I want Germany to do what they promised to do.” 

Rep. Warren Davidson (R-Ohio), a member of the ultraconservative House Freedom Caucus, said funding Ukraine was also endangering U.S. national security. 

“Endless wars deplete our strength rather than build it,” Davidson told Fox Business. 

Johnson has also asked the White House questions about Ukraine support and claims the Biden administration has refused to answer his inquiries. Still, Johnson has shown general interest in backing Ukraine, and he met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in December. 

But the House Freedom Caucus is set on blocking Ukraine efforts, and the coalition of skeptical Republicans has grown, with more than 100 Republicans voting against Ukrainian aid in September. 

Despite growing resistance, Republican leaders including Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas), chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, want to back Ukraine, and the majority of Congress still supports Kyiv.

Rep. Joe Wilson (R-S.C.), a Ukraine supporter on the House Armed Services Committee, said he was confident in Republican leadership and dismissed questions from his colleagues about how long U.S. commitment to the country could last, casting the blame on Russian President Vladimir Putin. 

“Putin knows how long it’s gonna be,” he said. “That’s the one to ask.” 

Congress has not passed a Ukraine aid bill since the end of 2022, when a Democratic majority passed the last of four packages for Kyiv.  

The roughly $113 billion in total Ukraine aid, some $44 billion of which was for security needs, ran out at the end of December, which forced the Pentagon to sound the alarm. 

“We have no more money, we have no more authority to continue to give [money] to Ukraine,” said Pentagon deputy press secretary Sabrina Singh on Tuesday. 

Although Congress failed on the border bill, Singh said she was confident lawmakers could approve a package, though she warned that failing to give Ukraine more money would “send a dangerous message” and embolden Russia. 

Ukrainian officials also stress that more aid is needed as the war settles into a stalemate, a favorable position for Russia if Western assistance trickles down. Zelensky warned that Putin will reshape Europe if the U.S. stops funding Ukraine.

“If they intend to reduce assistance to Ukraine then there will be a new geopolitical structure,” Zelensky told an Italian news outlet this week. 

A senior Biden administration official told reporters this week that Ukraine aid will support American jobs, boost the American defense industrial base, thwart Russia and keep the Ukrainian economy afloat. 

“Putin has made destroying Ukraine’s economy a central aim of his war strategy. And being able to boost Ukraine’s economy is, quite frankly, essential to their survival,” the official said. “If Ukraine’s economy collapses, they will not be able to keep on fighting.” 

The inaction in Congress and the deadlock to back Kyiv for more than a year has spurred some protesters to now gather daily at the U.S. Capitol.  

On Tuesday, a small crowd of them held up signs calling for Congress to take action, including one warning Ukraine will no longer exist if Russia wins the war. 

Nurul Rakhimbek, 49, a Ukrainian who lives in Washington, D.C., said he was concerned a Ukraine bill might not pass and that politics was getting in the way of supporting his nation. 

“It’s usually politics behind everything,” he said. “With the coming elections as well — and people are trying to pick something that is popular among the electorate.”