Morning Report — What does DeSantis exit mean for New Hampshire?

by Alexis Simendinger - 01/22/24 6:36 AM ET

Former President Trump’s formidable lock among Republicans may outpace challenger Nikki Haley’s appeal among independent voters and moderates, seen as a smaller population heading into the GOP New Hampshire primary Tuesday, polls and political analysts suggest.

But the long-shot, two-person race Haley sought against Trump ahead of February’s South Carolina primary came into focus with Sunday’s decision by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis to quit his presidential bid while endorsing the former president, whom the governor tried to surpass during an eight-month campaign that began with high expectations and ended with a lurch.

“Do you want more of the same, or do you want something new?” Haley asked a Seabrook, N.H., crowd Sunday while boasting that all of the “fellas” are out of the Republican race except Trump.

▪ The Hill:Haley ramps up attacks in New Hampshire aimed at the former president.

▪ The Hill: Trump defends his cognitive abilities.

The former U.N. ambassador’s immediate challenge will be to turn out enough of New Hampshire’s “live free or die” voters to assemble a competitive claim on the nomination. She was a distant third-place finisher behind Trump a week ago in the Iowa caucuses, where evangelical conservatives dominate in the GOP — the type of terrain she’ll confront again in her home state of South Carolina next month, analysts point out.

A Suffolk University/Boston Globe/NBC-10 survey released Friday showed Trump with 52 percent support in New Hampshire, followed by Haley at 35 percent and DeSantis at 6 percent. DeSantis’s backers are most likely to shift to Trump in New Hampshire. The upshot from 56 polls averaged by Decision Desk HQ and The Hill showed a Trump lead of more than 11 percent in the Granite State before DeSantis’s exit. Trump had a 33 percent lead over Haley in South Carolina, averaged over 29 polls as of Sunday, according to Decision Desk HQ.

“It’s not impossible for her. If she overperforms expectations, I think she rolls into South Carolina with a lot of momentum,” former Maryland Republican Gov. Larry Hogan, a Trump critic who endorsed Haley last week, told ABC News’s “This Week” on Sunday while estimating her chances of capturing the GOP nomination.

▪ Insider NJ: Trump’s lead against Haley is 50 percent to 35 percent in New Hampshire, according to the final Emerson College/WHDH poll of likely primary voters, conducted Jan. 18-20 before DeSantis suspended his campaign.

▪ The Associated Press: Democratic leaders publicly and privately acknowledge a fear of Haley more than Trump as a GOP nominee against Biden.

WHAT ABOUT VOTERS? Only 110,298 people in Iowa and perhaps some absentee voters in New Hampshire have thus far cast ballots in the 2024 contest, but many Republican Party power brokers, including some former rivals and Trump detractors, have placed their bets on the pending nominee using a cascade of endorsements. Trump’s strategy has been to knock out his GOP challengers within weeks and concentrate his firepower on President Biden.

Trump has endorsements from both of South Carolina’s senators, GOP Gov. Henry McMaster and three of the state’s six Republican House members. Haley, the former governor of the state, points to support from just one of South Carolina’s members of Congress, Republican Rep. Ralph Norman.

Some GOP senators fret that Trump is burning through his campaign war chest by pouring resources into legal defenses. They’re looking to New Hampshire to gauge voter turnout and project general election enthusiasm.

2028: DeSantis’s campaign collapsed under the weight of mistaken assumptions, inexperience, missteps and Trump’s resurgence, Politico reports. In 2019, the governor “ousted people who knew where the skeletons were and knew all his baggage,” said one Florida party member familiar with the history between DeSantis and Susie Wiles, the Florida political operative DeSantis fired, who was promptly hired by Trump. “Those were the people who orchestrated his takedown.”

GOP strategist and Trump campaign alum Brian Seitchik said, “The campaign really never offered a rationale for why [GOP voters] should leave Trump and move to DeSantis. … They should have taken the fight to Trump directly, and they never really did that.”

Some conservative voters suggest DeSantis should try again in 2028 when Trump won’t be a candidate. “He’s got a great reputation among conservatives,” New Hampshire voter Ken Coleman told NPR, speaking about DeSantis. “I think right now it’s just a little premature.”

3 THINGS TO KNOW TODAY

▪ Russia blamed Ukraine on Sunday for strikes that killed at least 28 people and injured 30 in Donetsk in eastern, Russian-controlled Ukraine. Kyiv denied responsibility.

▪ The death toll in Gaza exceeds 25,000 from Israeli strikes, Gaza health officials reported Sunday.

▪ The U.S. Postal Service raised the price of Forever stamps to 68 cents on Sunday in the fifth price increase in two years. In 2007, the cost was 41 cents.

LEADING THE DAY

MORE POLITICS

Anticipating the political focus on GOP dramas in New Hampshire, Biden on Tuesday plans an event in Virginia with Vice President Harris, accompanied by their respective spouses, to tie Trump to abortion restrictions. They plan to appeal to Americans who oppose state bans on abortion and on reproductive health care, spawned by the Supreme Court’s 2022 decision to overturn Roe v. Wade.

“We stand with the vast majority of Americans who support a woman’s right to choose, and continue to call on Congress to restore the protections of Roe in federal law once and for all,” the president said in a White House statement released this morning.

▪ The Hill: Democrats look to abortion politics to draw voters to the polls.

▪ The Hill: Harris takes center stage in the abortion fight.

▪ CNN: Here’s the Biden-Harris ad about abortion rights, titled “Forced.”

The campaign event, on the 51st anniversary of the high court’s landmark Roe decision, is to be backed by ads that showcase actual women and health care providers who have been impacted by what the Biden-Harris campaign calls “Trump’s abortion bans,” enacted with “chaos and cruelty” in conservative states. Trump takes credit for state abortion bans, boasting, “I was able to kill Roe v. Wade.”

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has a new digital ad describing House Republicans as “anti-abortion extremists.” Punchbowl News reports that the ad shows a clip of Fox News’ Kayleigh McEnany, a former press secretary in the Trump White House, warning Republicans that the party continues to lose on abortion rights ballot initiatives. The ad puts a spotlight on Reps. Young Kim (R-Calif.), Brandon Williams (R-N.Y.) and Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.), GOP lawmakers in congressional districts Biden won in 2020. The DCCC released a similar digital ad last June.

The Biden-Harris team wants to reprise the 2022 fervor when voters turned out to protest new and proposed abortion restrictions. Biden surrogates plan to headline abortion-related events this week in Michigan, Arizona and North Carolina.

2024 ROUNDUP

▪ Why Biden won’t be on the New Hampshire ballot.

▪ Biden on X, formerly Twitter, mocked Trump on Sunday for repeatedly mixing up former Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), calling her by Haley’s name, while speaking about the attacks and security at the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. Biden pointed to his campaign’s ad that shows clips of Trump gaffes and confused utterances (and Haley’s reaction to Trump’s mix-up).

▪ How Haley’s lean income years in South Carolina led her into an ethical thicket.

▪ Veepstakes: Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), who dropped out of the GOP presidential race in November (and last week endorsed Trump), left the door open to being the former president’s 2024 running mate. Scott, a longtime bachelor, also proposed to his girlfriend on Saturday (she said yes). … Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) continues to generate VP speculation as she campaigns with and for Trump.

▪ New Hampshire Republican Gov. Chris Sununu, who backs Haley for president, told NBC News’ “Meet the Press” Sunday that “everybody should be concerned” about Trump’s claim that he has absolute presidential immunity.

▪ The Hill’s Rafael Bernal interviewed Sen. Rick Scott(R-Fla.), the Sunshine State’s former governor now seeking another Senate term, about his pitch to Florida Hispanics. Upshot: Kitchen table issues with a side of Latin America.

WHERE AND WHEN

The House convenes at 11 a.m.

The Senate will meet at 3 p.m.

The president will receive the President’s Daily Brief at 9 a.m. in Delaware. Bidenwill arrive at the White House at 11:10 a.m. He plans to meet with his Task Force on Reproductive Healthcare Access at 2:15 p.m. to mark the 51st anniversary of the landmark Roe v. Wade decision.

The vice president heads to Milwaukee in battleground Wisconsin today for a speech at 12:15 CT at IUPAT District Council 7 about reproductive rights, which the White House says will kick off Harris’s national “Fight for Reproductive Freedoms” tour. Harris returns to Washington this evening.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken is in Africa this week, beginning in Cabo Verde and then traveling to Côte d’Ivoire today. He meets this morning with Prime Minister Ulisses Correia e Silva in Praia and visits an MCC infrastructure modernization funding recipient in Cabo Verde. In the evening in Côte d’Ivoire, Blinken attends a match of the Côte d’Ivoire-Equatorial Guinea Men’s Africa Cup of Nations with Ivorian Prime Minister Robert Beugré Mambé, Ivorian Vice President Tiémoko Meyliet Koné and Ivorian Foreign Minister Kacou Houadja Léon Adom.

The White House daily press briefing is scheduled at 1 p.m. Included will be Jennifer Klein, director of the White House Gender Policy Council.

ZOOM IN

CONGRESS

RIN$E AND REPEAT? Some lawmakers worry about whether Congress will meet the next government funding deadline in March or risk a partial shutdown. Appropriators say spending talks continue. The Hill’s Aris Folley digs into some of the budgeting details.

The House is out of session and the Senate is in this week. Senators continue to explore potential legislative changes that would gain sufficient support to both tighten border security and back new funding to assist Ukraine. Leaders have said for weeks they’re “close” to a deal that could achieve both. Senators have not seen any legislative language.

There’s a “crisis” and “catastrophe” at the U.S. southern border, which necessitates the impeachment of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, House Republicans continue to argue. A GOP impeachment inquiry aimed at Biden is more uncertain amid the historically slim Republican majority in the House. The Republican impeachment inquiry barrels ahead amid internal House turmoil over a host of controversies. It’s an election year — and some Republicans say they’re skeptical.

ELSEWHERE

INTERNATIONAL

NO SOLUTION, NO DEAL: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday rejected conditions presented by Hamas to end the war and release hostages that would include Israel’s complete withdrawal and leaving Hamas in power in Gaza. As Israeli planes resumed bombing Khan Younis in southern Gaza, senior Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhri told Reuters the Israeli leader’s refusal to end the military offensive in Gaza “means there is no chance for the return of the [Israeli] captives,” referring to remaining hostages who in total are said to number 136.

Netanyahu — who is struggling to bolster his support among a cross-section of Israelis beyond the Likud party, according to a recent poll — last week openly rejected a U.S.-backed proposal for a two-state solution between Israel and Palestinians and on Sunday added, “I reject outright the terms of surrender of the monsters of Hamas.”

Representatives of the Hostages and Missing Persons Families Forum called on Netanyahu to “clearly state that we will not abandon civilians, soldiers, and others kidnapped in the October debacle.” Forum members pressed the prime minister to “advance the deal now,” warning, “If the prime minister decides to sacrifice the hostages, he should show leadership and honestly share his position with the Israeli public.”

The Associated Press: Saudi Arabia’s top diplomat told CNN in an interview Sunday that the kingdom will not normalize relations with Israel or contribute to Gaza’s reconstruction without a credible pathway to a Palestinian state.

HOUTHIS: Meanwhile, U.S. and allied efforts to deter Houthi attacks on U.S. troops and commercial ships in the Red Sea have come to naught. A tipping point for the safety of U.S. military and fears of a new front in the Middle East conflict are much on the minds of Biden and his advisers, according to reports.

The militia group says its strikes from Yemen are intended to support Palestinians. In Egypt, Lebanon and Jordan, the economic damage from the attacks is seen as severe. But the broader economic impact in the region so far has been mostly contained, The New York Times reports. Oil production and prices, a critical driver of worldwide economic activity and inflation, have returned to pre-crisis levels. International tourists are still flying into other countries in the Middle East such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar.

Biden and administration officials fear it’s a matter of time before an American service member is killed as a result of a Houthi attack. On Saturday, the assault on American troops based at Al Asad Air Base in western Iraq was by one measure the Houthis’ most successful to date. Two out of an estimated 17 rockets and short-range ballistic missiles made it through air defense systems. An unspecified number of American military personnel were reported injured, but none was said to have been killed.

Houthi missiles are based on Iranian technology and the U.S. believes Iran is coordinating attacks and helping provide targets.

NBC News: Two U.S. Navy SEALs lost in nighttime seas were declared dead Sunday after a 10-day search following a raid on a small boat off Somalia, the U.S. Central Command said. An unidentified SEAL attempted to board the vessel amid rough seas and fell into the Gulf of Aden, according to the Pentagon. The second SEAL dived in after the first, as is protocol, officials said.

The Hill: Americans fighting in Ukraine are battling against gridlock in the nation’s capital. American soldiers who have volunteered to fight on the Ukrainian battlefield spoke with The Hill, along with two former U.S. soldiers who were in Ukraine and families of American volunteers whose loved ones were killed fighting against Russia.

OPINION

■ The 2024 Republican choice: A second, chaotic Trump term, or a new conservative beginning? by The Wall Street Journal editorial board.

■ Biden’s failure to deter Iran risks World War Three in the Middle East, by Douglas E. Schoen and Saul Mangel, opinion contributors, The Hill.

THE CLOSER

And finally … “The Wizard of Oz” costume department in 1939 did not use authentic rubies to create the ruby slippers, but a semi-reformed criminal who wanted “one last score,” according to his lawyer, was talked by an associate into believing precious jewels adorned the expensively insured footwear.

The sparkling shoes were on display at a Minnesota museum when a thief in 2005 used a hammer to shatter a glass case to steal the “no place like home” magic slippers featured in an iconic film he’d never seen.

Terry Jon Martin, 76, who confessed to the heist and is now in poor health, will be sentenced Jan. 29 in Duluth, Minn. Within days of his crime, Martin learned the jewels were glass. He got rid of the stolen goods long before the FBI located the shoes in 2018.

Oh, and three other pairs worn by Judy Garland in the movie are held by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, the Smithsonian Museum of American History and a private collector.

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