Morning Report — Iowa expectations: Trump should win big today

by Kristina Karisch - 01/15/24 6:26 AM ET

An American flag is seen fixed to a farm fence along US Highway 20 during a blizzard near Galva, Iowa, Saturday, Jan. 13, 2024. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)

Welcome to the 2024 primary season. Today marks caucus day in Iowa, officially kicking off the nominating contests for November’s presidential election.

IT’S LOOKING TO BE A SNOWY ONE. Iowa has been hit with the Arctic blast and ensuing blizzard pummeling much of the Midwest. The Hawkeye State is expected to have its coldest caucuses ever, and its coldest January day in at least five years, today — with subzero temperatures and wind chills as low as minus 40 degrees Fahrenheit. Candidates pared back their schedules over the weekend and campaigns were left grappling with questions about whether people will turn out amid record-low temperatures.

With former President Trump holding a nearly 30-point lead in the final NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll before the caucuses, the contest is his to lose. Polling averages from The Hill/Decision Desk HQ show Trump leading his nearest rival by 35 percentage points. Trump has been bolstered by support from evangelical Christians, first-time caucusgoers and registered Republicans — and, crucially, considering the subzero temperatures, the backing of the most enthusiastic and committed likely caucusgoers.

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), a Trump ally, says it will be all over if Trump wins Iowa by 13 points, which would set a record in a competitive GOP presidential caucus in the state (The Hill).

Flashback: When Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) beat Trump in Iowa back in 2016, Trump said he “stole” his victory.

▪ The Washington Post: “Ordained by God”: Trump’s legal problems galvanize Iowa evangelicals.

▪ The New York Times: Blue-collar white voters make up Trump’s base. But his political resurgence has been fueled largely by Republicans from the other end of the socioeconomic scale.

▪ The Hill: Immigration is a top-tier issue for Iowa caucusgoers.

IOWA IS ESPECIALLY CRITICAL for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), who has poured resources into the state, spending months meeting with voters in all 99 counties. While he has in recent weeks tried to manage expectations, strategists have suggested anything short of a strong second-place finish would be devastating for the Florida governor. A Suffolk University Political Research Center poll released Thursday showed former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley leading DeSantis in Iowa by 7 points.

▪ The Hill: DeSantis looks to fellow veterans for much-needed Iowa boost.

▪ The Wall Street Journal: As Trump dominates in Iowa, Haley has her eye on New Hampshire.

Haley herself has put less stock in Iowa and instead pinned her hopes on New Hampshire and its Jan. 23 primary. She has been gaining ground in the Granite State, and new polling suggests Trump’s support there has slipped slightly in recent months.

“The fact is, because the primary voters in Iowa and New Hampshire are so different, winning in both would represent solid control and really complete dominance over the Republican Party,” said Republican strategist Brian Seitchik, arguing “this thing is over” if Trump wins the two early states (The Hill).

The Hill’s Caroline Vakil breaks down five key things to know before caucusing kicks off tonight.

3 THINGS TO KNOW TODAY

▪ As winter storms and freezing temperatures sweep the country, here’s why the definition of “extreme cold” is different in Duluth and Dallas.

▪ Veterans of former President Obama’s 2012 reelection campaign have quietly raised worries that President Biden’s reelection operation is too bare-bones.

▪ 2023 was the hottest year on record. A new analysis shows 2023 exceeded 1.5C of warming on average for the first time, a key limit in the Paris Climate Agreement.

BIDEN IS SEARCHING FOR A WINNING MESSAGE on the 2024 campaign trail, one that is not overly reliant on attacks on Trump and the risks of putting him back in the White House. Biden is clearly energized and comfortable taking the fight to Trump, but his campaign and Democratic allies acknowledge a fear of Trump returning to the White House will not be enough on its own to win Biden another term (The Hill).

“It’s part of a winning message, but it’s only part of a winning message,” said Jim Kessler, a co-founder of the center-left group Third Way. “I think job number one is for voters to actually feel good about Joe Biden and to feel better about the economy and the direction the country is heading, and to feel that some of the major issues they’re concerned about are being addressed to their satisfaction.”

Morning Report’s Alexis Simendinger will be back in your inboxes Tuesday.

LEADING THE DAY

CONGRESS

NO SHUTDOWN (FOR NOW): Congressional leaders reached a deal to avert a government shutdown this week, landing on a two-step stopgap bill that will keep the lights on in Washington into March. Under the deal, the new government funding deadlines will be March 1 and March 7. The agreement comes ahead of Friday’s shutdown deadline, and a second deadline on Feb. 2.

The proposal — which the House and Senate must approve by Friday night to avoid a partial shutdown — will give the House and Senate more time to complete work on the 12 appropriations bills. The announcement of the two-step continuing resolution is sure to anger conservative House Republicans, who are traditionally opposed to stopgap legislation and have been averse to GOP leadership cutting deals with Democrats.

But the approach is one that was largely favored by House conservatives during the shutdown showdown in November. The structure was seen as a way to avoid a massive, whole-of-government omnibus funding bill in December, which Republicans typically abhor (The Hill and Roll Call).

CNN: Read the full text of the stopgap bill.

THE DEAL MARKS A LEGISLATIVE WIN for Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), who is juggling warring factions within his party as he aims to execute the first major legislative deal of his Speakership. A proud staunch conservative, The Washington Post reports Johnson had believed his reputation within the House Freedom Caucus would help manage their demands in a way that former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) could not. Many Republicans acknowledge the difficult task he has taken on while learning on the job.

Rep. Richard Hudson (R-N.C.) said the conference put Johnson “in a boat that’s on fire,” while Rep. Steve Womack (R-Ark.) said the Speaker is limited by conflicting demands from the party’s far-right flank, making it “hard to worry about bailing water when you got the alligators sniffing at you.”

A handful of House Democrats say they’d step in to help Johnson keep his gavel in the face of a potential conservative revolt — but it wouldn’t come free.

Democrats willing to consider the matter said Johnson would first have to forge an agreement with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) ensuring Democrats had a greater voice in the legislative process (The Hill).

“Just like I told McCarthy: Talk to Hakeem, and there are some of us that can support you,” said Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas), referring to when McCarthy was booted from his leadership post last year at the hands of disgruntled conservatives. “I’ll say the same thing [to Johnson].”

WHERE AND WHEN

The House meets on Tuesday at noon.

The Senate will convene on Tuesday at 3 p.m.

The president will receive the President’s Daily Brief at 8 a.m. He will travel from Camp David to Philadelphia, where he will volunteer at Philabundance, a hunger relief organization, in observance of the Martin Luther King, Jr., Day of Service. In the afternoon, he will return to the White House.

Vice President Harris will travel to Columbia, S.C. At 11:50 a.m., she will deliver the keynote address at the NAACP South Carolina State Conference “King Day at the Dome” event. At 1:10 pm, she will speak at a campaign event before traveling back to Washington.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken has no public schedule. The State Department is closed in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day.

ZOOM IN

INTERNATIONAL

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to keep fighting on the 100th day of war against Hamas in Gaza, despite growing uncertainty over the outcome, international alarm over the mounting death toll and fears of a broader regional escalation. Launched in retaliation for the deadly Hamas-led Oct. 7 assault, Israel’s war against Hamas has killed more than 23,000 Palestinians, a majority of them women and children, according to Gaza health officials, and displaced most of the enclave’s population (The New York Times). The White House said Sunday that “it’s the right time” for Israel to scale back its military offensive, exposing the growing differences between the close allies (The Hill).

Netanyahu said Saturday that the border between Egypt and Gaza “must” be closed — a move that would give Israel complete control over the enclave’s access to the world. Netanyahu said that Israel would not consider the war finished until it closes the Philadelphi Corridor, a strip of land that serves as a buffer zone on the border between Egypt and Gaza.

“We’ll destroy Hamas, we’ll demilitarize Gaza, and military equipment and other deadly weapons will continue to enter this southern opening, so of course we need to close it,” Netanyahu said.

Egypt has previously warned Israel against military operations in the corridor, according to state media, which, citing an unnamed source, reported in October that any Israeli incursion into the corridor would be seen as a violation of the two countries’ peace treaty of 1979 (CNN).

▪ The New York Times: The number of people facing possible starvation in Gaza in the coming weeks is the largest share of a population at risk of famine identified anywhere since a United Nations-affiliated panel created the current global food-insecurity assessment 20 years ago.

▪ The Hill: Israel reached a deal with Qatar to provide medicine to Hamas hostages in war-torn Gaza.

▪ The Hill: Voters in Taiwan elected Vice President Lai Ching-te, who goes by William, as president Saturday, keeping the ruling party, the Democratic Progressive Party in power for its third straight term. Secretary of State Antony Blinken congratulated Lai on his victory in a statement Saturday.

A U.S. fighter aircraft on Sunday shot down a missile fired from a Houthi-controlled area of Yemen, amid the ongoing tensions between the U.S. and the rebel group. The incident comes days after the U.S. and United Kingdom conducted a series of retaliatory strikes against the Houthi rebels in Yemen in response to the group’s ongoing attacks at vessels in the Red Sea. The retaliatory attack came in response to the Houthis’ largest attack last Tuesday, in which the group fired a barrage of rockets and missiles at the U.S. and U.K. forces in the Red Sea (The Hill).

ADMINISTRATION

🛢️ AS U.S. OIL PRODUCTION BOOMS, Biden finds himself on a tightrope between courting moderate voters and maintaining enthusiasm among progressives. Domestic oil production is projected to hit record highs this year. That fact could be used to parry Republican attacks on the administration’s energy agenda as Biden seeks reelection, but putting too much emphasis on it could also alienate the climate-minded voters who make up the Democratic base — and who already have mixed feelings about Biden’s energy record (The Hill).

The New York Times: The Biden administration will fine oil and gas companies for excess methane. A plan to impose a fee of $900 to $1,500 on every excess ton of methane emissions would be the first federal price on greenhouse gas pollution.

🚬 ANTI-TOBACCO ADVOCATES are growing increasingly concerned that a divided White House will bow to political pressure from the tobacco industry and scrap a plan to ban menthol cigarette sales, amid concerns of a backlash among Black voters ahead of the 2024 election. Advocates say they’ve been told this week could make or break their efforts, if Biden hopes to have the ban take force before the end of his first term.

Public health experts say banning menthol could save hundreds of thousands of lives, particularly among Black smokers, an estimated 85 percent of whom use menthol cigarettes. A potential ban on menthol cigarettes has been discussed across multiple administrations for more than a decade and has yet to come to fruition (The Hill).

“We certainly know that the longer these rules sit out there, the more time the tobacco industry is going to use to just try to pummel them and make up new claims,” said Erika Sward, assistant vice president of national advocacy at the American Lung Association.

ELSEWHERE

HEALTH

WITH COVID-19 CASES ON THE RISE, everyone seems to either be getting infected or know someone who is. But as The Hill’s Joseph Choi reports, without the robust data tracking that was available during the public health emergency, a clear picture is harder to discern, but some trends can still be observed. Hospital admissions jumped by 20 percent in the most recent week, having been on the rise since the start of November. That trend is reflected across the country, apart from the western US, with roughly 10 percent of U.S. counties now considered to have high hospital admission rates (ABC News).

▪ The Washington Post: Is this COVID-19 surge really the second biggest? Here’s what data shows.

▪ The New York Times: In newly disclosed documents, federal researchers find that cannabis may have medical uses and is less likely to cause harm than drugs like heroin — and recommend easing restrictions on the drug.

▪ The Washington Post: U.S. health care isn’t ready for a surge of seniors with disabilities.

COURTS

HUNTER BIDEN’S TRIP TO CAPITOL HILL last week is shining a bright light on how his approach to the GOP investigations into his business dealings is independent of the White House. White House officials didn’t know the younger Biden was going to make an appearance Wednesday in a hearing of the House Oversight and Accountability Committee. A source familiar told The Hill’s Alex Gangitano and Mike Lillis that “no one” at the White House “was notified or advising Hunter” before the move.

Sources tell The Hill it’s not surprising White House officials wouldn’t have known in advance, and described that while the president and first lady have a close and transparent relationship with their son, he does not seek advice from White House staff. A Democrat close to the White House described Hunter Biden’s opinion of the public relations people around his father as “very low.”

“Can you blame Hunter for not taking communications advice from this group?” the Democrat said.

▪ The Hill: The Supreme Court is set for pivotal cases that could claw back federal administrative power.

▪ Politico: A Georgia prosecutor under scrutiny in Trump’s election interference case was held in contempt last year. Special prosecutor Nathan Wade, who was recently accused of having a romantic relationship with District Attorney Fani Willis (D), disobeyed a court order in his divorce proceeding.

OPINION

■ Will Trump’s politics of untruthfulness win again? Iowa gets its say, by The Washington Post editorial board.

■ The responsibility of Republican voters, by The New York Times editorial board.

THE CLOSER

And finally … It’s Dr. Martin Luther King Jr., Day. The third Monday in January celebrates the Jan. 15, 1929, birthday of the civil rights leader who advocated the use of nonviolent means to end racial segregation. King, one of the most influential African American civil rights leaders during the 1960s, was instrumental in the passage of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, which outlawed discrimination in public accommodations, facilities, and employment, as well as the Voting Rights Act of 1965. In 1964, he was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.

King led the 1963 March on Washington, which culminated in his iconic “I Have A Dream” speech at the Lincoln Memorial. Watch a video of King delivering the speech HERE.

The idea for a holiday honoring King was first introduced just four days after his assassination in 1968; it would take another 15 years until then-President Ronald Reagan signed the holiday into law in 1983 — and a further two decades for all 50 states to observe the day. Today, it is the only federal holiday designated as a national day of service to encourage all Americans to volunteer and improve their communities.

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