We asked polling and politics experts: How important of a role will independent voters play in 2024? |
📣 “If President Joe Biden’s current weakness among his own 2020 base continues into next November, every vote from independent voters is going to count. Beyond Biden improving his standing among independent voters on the economy, Morning Consult’s ongoing tracking of independent voters suggests the president is also going to need to change the issue discussion to ones that are more favorable to him to improve his standing. Former President Donald Trump’s crescendo back onto the political stage in the coming months could help with independent voters if Biden’s team can maximize on what his likely 2024 challenger is saying on issues like health care and democracy.” — Eli Yokley, U.S. politics analyst at Morning Consult
📣 “Voters are restless and less than happy with the two leading candidates and no demographic group is more on the fence than Independents. They hold a lot of cards.” — Tim Malloy, polling analyst at Quinnipiac University Poll, who pointed to a November poll showing 72 percent of Independents would like to see other candidates enter the presidential race
📣 “Independents in battleground states will continue to play an outsized role in the 2024 election, especially once the general election campaigns have begun in earnest and voters start to tune in. Turnout matters, but there’s a comparative advantage to winning over undecided voters, who are still numerous in the most pivotal swing states.” — Matt Taglia, senior director of Emerson College Polling
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