Could Gaza be the next Hundred Years’ War?

Do all wars end? Eventually.  

Europe witnessed wars that lasted 100 years. The Korean War never formally ended. Both sides remain locked and loaded at the 38th parallel dividing the peninsula as they have been since World War II ended. The U.S. was in Vietnam for nearly a dozen years. The Afghanistan debacle lasted for 20 years. And Britain’s Irish “troubles” spanned decades.  

What does this mean for the war in Gaza?

I have called Gaza the “war from hell” that will spark a “nightmare from hell” after the fighting ends. The current ceasefire that has allowed hostage/prisoner exchanges and resupply of humanitarian aid, if not extended, is scheduled to end today. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to restart the offensive to destroy Hamas. That will guarantee more death and devastation.

Assuming Netanyahu means what he says, more bombing will follow. Already, Israel has dropped on Gaza the explosive equivalent of the two atom bombs that eviscerated Hiroshima and Nagasaki. When the offensive turns south, as it must in order to purge Hamas from the remainder of Gaza, will Israel order Gazans to seek shelter in the north,  as they once were ordered south? If so, where will they live as, according to media reports, most homes in the north are rubble and vital water, food, electricity and medical care are virtually nonexistent?

How this ends might be answered this way: It will not happen anytime soon. 

First, no matter how much Israel’s offensive succeeds, it cannot and will not destroy all of Hamas. Some fighters in Gaza will survive. Hamas’s vast infrastructure outside Israel’s reach, spread throughout much of the region, remains untouched, even by sanctions.

The Economist reports that Hamas was financed through about $1 billion a year, much of it from investments that are managed by highly competent bankers residing outside Gaza. Despite sanctions, arms and other aid are slipping through these barriers.

What then about the children, friends and relatives of dead Hamas soldiers? The expression in the Afghan War was if you kill one terrorist you generate 10 more seeking revenge. The same reverse equation worked in Iraq and in most countries with insurgencies.

Second, who is responsible for Gaza once Hamas has been rendered (temporarily) impotent? Neither Israel nor the Arab states want that responsibility. The Palestinian Authority would have to bulk up just to be a shadow of its former self. And Netanyahu is irrevocably opposed to a two-state solution.

Democracy and voting are not answers. Hamas could well win again. Then what? The United Nations lacks the resources and consensus to take charge and govern as well as provide necessary security. Members will not be willing to provide “blue helmets” for peacekeeping in such chaotic circumstances.

Third, who will rebuild Gaza?  It is easy to forget that another competitor for massive reconstruction funding is Ukraine. Europe has a far more proximate interest in Ukraine than in Gaza.

The U.S. is, politely, ambivalent over reconstruction funding. As the war continues, more protests and marches in support of the Palestinians are inevitable. And a rise in antisemitism could likely accompany an increase in pro-Palestinian rallies.

Fourth, Nov. 5, 2024, though 11 months away, casts a long shadow. Should Republicans capture both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue, that will be very bad news for Jerusalem and Kyiv. The GOP is serious about cutting U.S. overseas involvement and the budget. But a Democratic victory cannot be ruled out.  

A week can be a month in politics as events can completely reshape the state of the election even on a daily basis. Suppose Donald Trump is convicted and sentenced to prison. Can an 81-year-old Joe Biden be guaranteed to have no health issues? And in seven weeks, can Congress finally pass a budget ending the insanity of a continuing resolution as a surrogate for running the government?

America’s government is deadlocked and the nation is politically polarized. Given the realities of domestic and international politics, no president would be able to resolve this pending humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza. Fortunately, escalation of the war is unlikely as that is not in the interests of the U.S., Europe, Russia, China or Iran.

Finally, will Israel’s democracy survive the war’s aftermath intact? At some point Netanyahu will be held accountable for failing to anticipate the war and then how he waged it. The possible deaths of tens of thousands of Gazans will be Israel’s responsibility. Israel could become an international pariah. 

And still, Hamas will carry on the fight. The real war may just be starting once the Israeli offensive ends.

Harlan Ullman is a senior advisor at the Atlantic Council and the prime author of the “shock and awe” military doctrine. His 12th book, “The Fifth Horseman and the New MAD:  How Massive Attacks of Disruption Became the Looming Existential Danger to a Divided Nation and the World at Large,” is available on Amazon.  He can be reached on Twitter @harlankullman.