EU scientists say 2023 ‘virtually certain’ to be warmest year on record

This year is “virtually certain” to be the warmest ever recorded, according to the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service.

Copernicus made its statement Wednesday following new data indicating last month was the warmest October ever recorded. The month saw an average surface air temperature of 15.3 degrees Celsius, surpassing the past three decades’ average by 0.85 degrees and 2019’s record by 0.4 degrees. The only month that broke temperature records by this wide a margin was this September, according to Copernicus. 

Copernicus maintains climate data dating to 1940.

“October 2023 has seen exceptional temperature anomalies, following on from four months of global temperature records being obliterated,” deputy director Samantha Burgess said in a statement. “We can say with near certainty that 2023 will be the warmest year on record, and is currently 1.43ºC above the preindustrial average. The sense of urgency for ambitious climate action going into COP28 has never been higher.”

Overall, the month was 1.7 degrees hotter than the pre-industrial period, which covers 1850-1900. It marked the sixth straight month of Antarctic sea ice at an all-time low for that point in the year and the seventh-lowest level on record for Arctic sea ice in October.

Copernicus’s data also indicated Europe saw its fourth-hottest recorded October, with an average 1.3 degrees warmer than the average of the past three decades.

The southern U.S., meanwhile, was drier than average in October, even as most of Europe saw above-average precipitation. The Pacific saw El Niño conditions persisting in the Pacific around the equator.

The record for warmest year is 2016, which also was an El Niño year. 

In addition to record heat over the summer, the past year has seen several extreme weather events, as well as wildfires exacerbated by dry conditions.