The campaign that isn’t

America is perilously divided — politically, socially and just about every other which way. Wars in Ukraine and Israel. Massive numbers of migrants illegally entering our country and overwhelming our cities. Rising interest rates. Increases in violent and quality-of-life crimes.

As we are about to enter a presidential campaign year, the leading candidates of both major parties are hugely unpopular. Yet both are odds-on favorites to win their party’s nomination. In many ways, the 2024 presidential race is thus far the campaign that isn’t. 

In virtually every significant category — from immigration to foreign policy to the economy — the voters view Joe Biden unfavorably. As for Donald Trump, he faces four criminal indictments that threaten his freedom and numerous civil lawsuits that threaten his financial empire. The only Democrat to announce a challenge to Biden’s road to the nomination has been Robert F. Kennedy Jr., at best a fringe candidate, who subsequently dropped his intra-party challenge and will run as an independent.

With Biden and his camp controlling the Democratic levers of power, including access to big money contributors, there appears to be no legitimate contender willing to oppose the president for the party’s nomination, unless Biden is overtaken with illness. 

Among Republicans, there has been a slew of worthy candidates such as Gov. Ron DeSantis, former Ambassador Nikki Haley, Sen. Tim Scott and former Vice President Mike Pence, newcomers like Vivek Ramaswamy and pretenders such as commentator Larry Elder and Miami Mayor Francis Suarez. But with all the money being spent and events being attended, no Republican challenger has come within 40 points of Trump, who has basically adopted the posture of being above it all. With Trump refusing even to engage in debates, the GOP is giving its primary voters shadow-boxing instead of a championship fight.

Despite Trump’s overwhelming lead — which seems to strengthen with every indictment — I still believe there is the possibility of a real challenger emerging from the pack. A lot will have to fall into place and the stars must properly align, but it can happen, even with the compressed schedule of early primaries.

So far, Trump has gotten away with largely ignoring key issues, focusing instead on perceived past grievances against him, particularly the “rigged” 2020 election. While this self-focus and narcissism might continue to appeal to his hard-core base, the longer he fails to discuss current issues and crises, the more he runs the risk of being labeled yesterday’s man.

For instance, as a supposed supporter of Israel, it was indefensible for Trump to criticize Prime Minister Netanyahu in the first days of Israel’s war with Hamas. Israel is our closest ally in the Middle East and the region’s only democracy. Israel had just endured a horrific terrorist attack proportionately many times more deadly than 9/11. All evidence and common sense point to heavy Iranian involvement and coordination. Obviously this war and its outcome will have serious consequences for the United States.

Yet, despite what in the past had been a close friendship with Netanyahu, Trump opted to ridicule the Israeli prime minister’s leadership and courage — undoubtedly because Netanyahu had acknowledged Biden’s 2020 election victory.

And while I do not believe the indictments of Trump are legally sustainable, there is no doubt that much of what he is accused of is indefensible (failure to act during the riots of Jan. 6) or self-inflicted (classified documents at Mar-a-Lago). As petty and sordid details steadily emerge from these criminal cases, and if he continues to avoid substantive discussion of serious issues, the greater the chance that Trump’s numbers will decline — and, if there is a viable challenger by the time of the primaries, his support could even go into free fall. 

Right now, I think DeSantis and Haley have broken through as the leading challengers. Pence is a good friend and exceptionally well qualified, but is simultaneously held back by his years as Trump’s vice president and his refusal to carry out Trump’s unconstitutional directives on Jan. 6. Vivek Ramaswamy was a glib, flash in the pan, one-day wonder. Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie makes strong points but his animus for Trump is all too obvious. For whatever reason, Tim Scott has thus far been unable to display his considerable talents. 

DeSantis appeared at the start to be Trump’s main threat. Solid record as governor. Strong 2022 reelection victory in an otherwise disappointing Republican year. A huge war chest. But DeSantis has never really gotten off the ground, often seeming robotic and being caught flatfooted.

In the debates and in her campaign appearances, Haley has demonstrated in-depth knowledge of key issues and the ability to articulate conservative positions in a way that would appeal to independents and traditional Democrats. As a Republican who supports a strong foreign policy, I particularly appreciate Ambassador Haley’s support for Ukraine and rejection of a Charles Lindbergh/isolationist foreign policy.

A lot has to go right for Haley to overtake Trump. But if Nikki Haley is the Republican nominee, I look forward to her taking on and thoroughly outclassing Joe Biden.

Peter King was the U.S. representative of New York’s 2nd and 3rd congressional districts for 28 years, including serving as chairman of the House Committee on Homeland Security. Follow him @RepPeteKing.