Israel’s pledge to eliminate Hamas raises fears of what lies ahead 

In the aftermath of Hamas’s surprise and brutal assault over the weekend, officials from Israel and the U.S. are saying the terrorist group must not be allowed to survive.

“Just as the forces of civilization united to defeat ISIS, the forces of civilization must support Israel in defeating Hamas,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in an address to the nation this week. 

But it’s a goal that has no clear timeline or road map and one that will be difficult to carry out. 

Israeli officials and regional experts are warning of, at least, a months-long Israeli military campaign in the Gaza Strip. And there are immediate fears the conflict could spill out across the region and beyond.

While Hamas’s main base of military operations is in Gaza — a narrow strip of sandy land sandwiched between Israel, Egypt and the Mediterranean Sea — its leadership lives across the world.

Its funding and military materials are largely provided by Iran, whose militant network extends to Hezbollah in Lebanon, militias in Iraq and the Houthis in Yemen. 

“We understand that you cannot kill ideas, but you absolutely can demolish the regime or the leadership,” said Neumi Neumann, former director of research for Israel’s internal security agency, the Shin Bet, now a visiting fellow with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

She said a narrow campaign could avoid a larger conflict, focused on targeting Hamas’s two top leaders, Yahya Sinwar, the group’s leader based in Gaza, and Saleh al-Arouri, deputy head of Hamas’s political bureau, who lives in Lebanon.  

“They both are trying to incite Palestinians in the West Bank, they incite Israeli Arabs inside east Jerusalem. They are trying to do a multi-front campaign against Israel,” Neumann said.

Democrats and Republicans have come out to say Hamas cannot survive. 

The group needs to be “taken off the battlefield, that could mean kill or capture, whatever the Israelis need to do,” Rep. Jason Crow (D-Colo.) said to reporters Tuesday evening after a classified briefing on Israel. 

“It’s clear that Hamas needs to be fully neutralized here, and there’s bipartisan consensus around that issue.”

Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa), speaking to Fox News from Jerusalem after leading a congressional delegation across the Middle East, said Israel will not be safe until Hamas is gone.

“It is extremely important that Israel proceed and make sure that they are absolutely destroying Hamas,” she said.

“This organization I would equate to ISIS. They are barbarians, and yes there will be some horrible tragedies along the way, but Israel is warning the people of the Gaza Strip, please move away from those Hamas targets. But Israel will not be safe, the people will not be safe until Hamas is gone.” 

The European Union and United Nations have already warned that Israel is committing war crimes in its response to Hamas, pointing to Jerusalem’s announcement of a sweeping siege on Gaza.

Biden has avoided similar public statements, giving Israel space to target Hamas in what is likely to be a brutal military operation on the densely populated Gaza Strip, where the terrorist group has blended its infrastructure among the civilian population. 

Israel is reportedly preparing to launch a ground assault on Hamas-controlled territory, which would begin a bloody new phase in the war. 

“The calls in Israel to topple Hamas now are loud. I do not know if they will win the day, but I would not rule it out,” said Natan Sachs, director of the Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, on a panel Tuesday. 

“It is possible that Israel will try to go all the way in or find itself going all the way in [to Gaza]. And what would be the day after? I don’t know. And more importantly, the Israeli leadership doesn’t know. It would be an extremely difficult, possibly terrible scenario afterwards.”

Shibley Telhami, a nonresident senior fellow at Brookings and a former senior adviser to the State Department, said in the panel discussion that the U.S. has a critical role as a level-headed advisor to Israel. 

“I also think that one cannot be confident that the policies that are being made right now — whether it’s by Hamas or by Israel, anybody else — is sound policy,” Telhami said.

“It’s on the fly. This came as a shocker. The urge to respond is not necessarily going to lead to wise decisions. And I think the United States has a critical role in counseling.”

Israeli hearts are hardened amid the trauma of Hamas’s assault, a barrage of missile attacks alongside more than 1,000 of its fighters infiltrating nearly a dozen communities in the south and attacking a music festival. Hamas massacred people in their homes and kidnapped others, with estimates putting the dead in Israel at more than 1,000 and at least 150 hostages taken into Gaza.

And now, Palestinians in Gaza are suffering under punishing Israeli air strikes against Hamas targets and are caught behind a hermetically sealed blockade. 

Gaza’s Ministry of Health, which operates under Hamas’s control of the strip, said that more than 1,000 Palestinians have been killed since Saturday — when Hamas launched its assault on Israel — and more than 5,000 injured, with 60 percent of those women and children. Nearly 200,000 Gazans are believed displaced amid punishing Israeli air strikes.

U.S. officials are so far silencing calls for a cease-fire and holding back criticism of Israel’s decision to cut off electricity, water and supplies to Gaza and to send extra military support for the Israel Defense Forces.

“Israel has a right to conduct an aggressive response to respond to the terrorism that’s been committed against its citizens,” State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller told reporters Tuesday when asked whether cutting off supplies to Gaza constituted a war crime.

“We expect them to follow international law, we believe that they will, and we will remain in close contact with them about it.” 

Biden is also challenged with avoiding a larger outbreak of war in the region, sending the U.S.’s most advanced carrier strike group to deter Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon from trying to open up separate fronts against Israel.

“Let me say again — to any country, any organization, anyone thinking of taking advantage of this situation, I have one word: Don’t. Don’t,” the president said in Tuesday remarks at the White House. 

American and Israeli officials say there’s no evidence Iran had a direct hand in the Hamas attack, even as they acknowledge Tehran’s longtime military backing of the terrorist group. 

It’s a delicate distinction. A more direct Iranian role in the attack could push the U.S. and Israel into a direct confrontation with Tehran — particularly with at least 14 Americans believed to have been killed in Hamas’s assault and at least 20 Americans taken hostage.

National security adviser Jake Sullivan said the U.S. acknowledges Iran is “complicit” in Hamas’s assault, but said there’s no confirmation that Iran knew about the attack “in advance or helped plan or direct this attack.”

Even as Republicans are irate at the Biden administration’s policy towards Iran, their calls for action have largely centered around freezing $6 billion of Iranian funds the U.S. freed up in exchange for releasing American prisoners, along with calls for imposing more sanctions. 

There’s near-unanimous support in Congress to fulfill what is likely to be a White House request for more aid to Israel. However, the request may also inflame ongoing debates about U.S. support for Israel, and how it should be balanced with America’s other military commitments, like aid for Ukraine.

The House is largely paralyzed until Republicans can elect a new Speaker after ousting Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) earlier this month. However, interim Speaker Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.) has suggested Congress might act to support Israel without a permanent speaker if necessary. 

Meanwhile, the White House has dispatched Secretary of State Antony Blinken to Israel in a signal of solidarity.

“In the days ahead, we will continue to stand with our Israeli partners,” Blinken said in a statement ahead of his departure Wednesday.

“As I head to Israel, I will be working to ensure they are equipped to defend themselves and making sure any hostile parties know they must not seek to take advantage of the situation.”