Contested GOP Senate primaries could create headaches in 2024

Contested primaries in the GOP races for the Senate could cause headaches for national Republicans trying to improve candidate quality in 2024.

Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), the chairman of Senate Republicans’ campaign arm, has said he wants the party to be more selective in who it’s recruiting and throwing its support behind. But in Senate races like Arizona, Ohio and Nevada, the party is already contending with increasingly crowded primaries.

That could create obstacles for the GOP looking to give itself a better chance of winning control of the Senate following last year’s disappointing midterm elections.

Republican strategists emphasize the need to avoid nasty primary fights, which could jeopardize the party and eventual nominee’s chances in a general election.

“I think what people want to see is that prosperity is possible and solutions. So any [candidate] that decides to run a nasty campaign, it’s not really helpful,” Ohio-based Republican strategist Mehek Cooke said. 

With President Biden’s approval rating in the low-40s to mid-40s and historical trends favoring the party not in control of the White House, Republicans last year hoped to score sweeping wins on Election Day to retake majorities in both chambers of Congress. But the party failed to win a majority in the Senate and only secured a narrow House majority. 

Observers, including many Republicans, attributed that to poor quality in candidates like Georgia Republican nominee Herschel Walker and Pennsylvania Republican nominee Mehmet Oz — both backed by former President Trump.

Following the midterms, Daines said the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) would take a more active role in recruiting and supporting candidates seen as more electable in a general election.

But that may be easier said than done considering how the contests are shaping up.

Montana is one of several states with emerging GOP contests between leadership-backed and anti-establishment candidates.

An NRSC spokesperson deferred comment to previous remarks Daines has made about the committee’s national strategy and specific races.

Daines declared his support early for businessman and former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy in his home state to try to unseat Democratic Sen. Jon Tester (Mont.). Early polling has shown Sheehy would be competitive against Tester in what will be a hotly contested race, but he may have some difficulty getting past the primary. 

Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.) has been hinting at a possible Senate run, which would be his second after losing to Tester in 2018 by a few points. Rosendale is among the more divisive members of Congress and is not seen as a strong fundraiser, but he has a significant name recognition advantage over Sheehy. 

He has also picked up endorsements from many state lawmakers, including the state Senate president and state House Speaker. Sheehy has meanwhile gotten endorsements from several senators and Montana Gov. Greg Gianforte (R). 

A poll taken last month found Rosendale leading Sheehy in a hypothetical match-up by more than 30 points. 

Daines has said he has had conversations with Rosendale about a possible run and hopes he does not join the race. 

“That’ll be Matt’s decision. Boy, if we can avoid a contentious primary, that’d be the best thing to do,” Daines told CBS News in June. 

In Nevada, Daines scored a win when Army veteran Sam Brown announced his second run for Senate in July. Brown lost last year’s Senate primary to Adam Laxalt, who Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto defeated in the general election.

Brown now faces several candidates, most notably former GOP secretary of State nominee Jim Marchant and former U.S. Ambassador to Iceland Jeffrey Gunter. 

Marchant is a far-right candidate who has tied himself closely to Trump’s false claims of voter fraud stealing the 2020 presidential election from him. He has support from fellow far-right figures, like former national security adviser Michael Flynn and Rep. Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.). 

A poll from last month showed Brown clearly ahead with support from a third of likely GOP primary voters, but a plurality was undecided. 

Constantin Querard, an Arizona-based Republican strategist, said he is not too worried about the “tone” of the primary battles because primaries have historically become “testy” before the candidates pull together to back the nominee. 

But he said if resources are largely spent in the primaries instead of the general election, Democrats would have an advantage with more time to organize and fundraise against Republicans. 

“There is a danger that if you’re not polling very well, you expended all your resources in the primary that the national party, national donors will then look at that race and move it down their list of priorities behind states where Republicans have better-funded candidates with better chances to win,” Querard said. 

He said this effect might be less poignant in a state like West Virginia, a strongly red state that Republicans see as one of its prime pickup opportunities in 2024, but it is a concern in states more closely split between the parties like Nevada and Arizona. 

Democrats will be largely playing defense in the 2024 Senate races with many more pickup opportunities for Republicans. But with most of their incumbents running for reelection, they will be able to focus on the general election instead of primary battles in these states. 

Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spokesperson Tommy Garcia said the NRSC’s strategy has “sparked a Republican rebellion in virtually every Senate battleground.”

“Their weak candidates and their brutal intraparty fights will lead them to defeat in 2024,” Garcia said.

Only one notable candidate has formally entered the Arizona Republican primary — Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb — but at least one other major candidate seems likely to join, and possibly a third.

Former Arizona GOP gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake has strongly hinted she plans to run, while former GOP Senate nominee Blake Masters is reportedly also considering a bid. Both candidates ran closely aligned with Trump and as strong conservatives but were defeated in the 2022 general election. 

Polls have shown Lake, who has still refused to concede her loss to Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs (D), as the clear front-runner regardless of whether Masters runs. 

Daines has meanwhile expressed optimism about the state of the Ohio race, which has three major candidates — Secretary of State Frank LaRose, businessman Bernie Moreno and state Sen. Matt Dolan. 

Daines has said the NRSC would stay neutral, telling CBS, “When you have three candidates, [where] anyone could win the general election, we don’t stay up late at night worrying about that.” 

Cooke, the Ohio-based strategist, said “tricks” and “nasty” campaigning does not work in Ohio, and candidates should focus on their policy differences to avoid a messy primary. She said the candidates’ focus should be on Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) instead of each other to put the nominee in the best position to contend for the seat. 

Unlike Ohio, the challenge facing Republicans in Wisconsin is a lack of a clear choice to face the incumbent Democrat, Sen. Tammy Baldwin. Several notable potential candidates, including GOP Reps. Mike Gallagher and Tom Tiffany, have declined to run for the seat, leaving no major candidate declared yet. 

The NRSC tried to recruit Gallagher for the seat, but he announced his decision to turn it down. 

Wisconsin-based GOP strategist Brandon Scholz said businessman Eric Hovde is likely the party’s best chance for the seat, but the state is likely “out of the running” as a possible Republican pickup opportunity if he does not join the race. 

Former Milwaukee County Sheriff David Clarke, who has made many controversial comments and has been a close ally of Trump, has also floated his name as a possible candidate. Clarke slammed the NRSC last week for wanting “nothing to do with me” and that “they can’t control me.” 

Scholz said he does not consider Clarke to be a serious candidate with real appeal and is only running for “his own gratification.” 

Scholz added that the considerations for whether a candidate is serious are if they have broad appeal, can win a primary and a general election and can raise money. He said the NRSC will need to decide what is worth investing in and have a plan for getting their candidate across the finish line after they get through a primary. 

“The question to the Senatorial Committee that the inside baseball folks have is are you going to put up enough money in the state to have somebody have a shot at the general election. Because if you’re not, why would you put anybody through this process?” he said.