A Saudi-Israel peace treaty is inevitable

On the surface, it appears inconceivable that a hardline Israeli government could expand the Abraham Accords and forge meaningful ties with the Saudi Kingdom. Israel’s hardline coalition seems unlikely to accede to Riyadh’s requirements that it never annex the West Bank or establish new settlements, in line with the Biden Administration’s efforts to foster such a peace agreement.

Meanwhile, Riyadh has undertaken something of a rapprochement with Tehran. A peace agreement that would complicate Saudi Arabia’s détente with Iran hardly appears to be in the offing.

Yet Israel and the Saudi kingdom do not have an all-or-nothing approach. Media reports of security cooperation between the two countries has become routine. The signs of eventual normalized relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia are already visible. While Iran has punished its athletes for simply associating with Israelis, the Saudis have allowed Israeli athletes and gamers to compete in the kingdom.

Furthermore, both Israel and Saudi Arabia reportedly back interim steps that can lead to full normalization. These include, for example, the prospect of Israel developing an overland train link to Saudi Arabia. This could position Israel and Saudi Arabia at the center of valuable trade route that would link Europe to the Gulf, and via Saudi ports create a link to India and Asia. The Biden administration likely had this in mind during U.S. National Security advisor Jake Sullivan’s meeting in Riyadh with his Saudi, Emirati, and Indian counterparts.

A regional economic and trade bloc would extend to the sphere of defense and security as well. In February 2023, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security announced it was setting up a network of information sharing and cyber security resilience to promote cybersecurity for Israel and Sunni Gulf States. This is just the start.

Saudi Arabia is seeking to forge a NATO-style security treaty in which the U.S. would be obligated to come to its defense in the event of an Iranian attack. As part of this treaty, Saudi Arabia would purchase the American Terminal High Altitude Area Defense antiballistic missile defense system, which could be used to shore up its defenses against Iran’s growing missile arsenal.

Although Saudi recognition of Israel would complicate Riyadh’s’ efforts to establish détente with Tehran, a security treaty styled after NATO could in the future bring together the U.S., Israel, and Sunni States and deter Iranian aggression. Israel hopes that a U.S. security guarantee to Riyadh could obviate its ambition for a civilian nuclear program monitored and backed by the U.S. This is due to Israel’s concern of the prospect of a civilian nuclear reactor being converted for military applications.

To this end, Israel’s Foreign Minister Eli Cohen reportedly stated that, “[A] defense pledge could reassure Middle Eastern nations, primarily Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states.” Moreover, he continued, “this approach would make individual nuclear ambitions unnecessary, bolster regional stability, and promote the peace and normalization agenda.” Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer went even further declaring Israel’s willingness to drop objections to a Saudi civilian nuclear program as part of a peace agreement with Riyadh.

Israel is well aware that Saudi Arabia can turn to China to develop a nuclear program and would rather it be developed by the U.S. on its own terms. In 2020, China was advancing its nuclear cooperation with Saudi Arabia and the UAE. China has renewed its building of a military base in Abu Dhabi as part of China’s People’s Liberal Army plans to build a global military network. Beijing also assisted Riyadh’s development of its ballistic missile program and manufacturing its own armed drones.

China is also Saudi Arabia’s largest trading partner, and China’s Belt Road Initiative is contributing to the Gulf’s digital transformation. China aims to embed itself in the region’s infrastructure by investing in advanced technologies such as clean energy, which could be incorporated into Gulf economic diversification efforts.

In testimony to the Senate Armed Services Committee, Gen. Michael Erik Kurilla, commander of U.S. Central Command, asserted in March 2023 that the U.S. was “in a race to integrate with our partners before China can fully penetrate the region.” Kurilla declared, “The People’s Republic of China has chosen to compete in the region. The PRC is aggressively expanding its diplomatic, informational, military and economic outreach across the region.” 

A peace agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel would contribute to broader U.S. geopolitical ambitions of keeping China (and state-connected Chinese firms such as Huawei) out of the Middle East, making Saudi Arabia more reliant on U.S. weapons, and preventing Beijing from establishing a military base on Saudi soil.

This will require a coordinated U.S. government strategy approach towards the Middle East. BIden’s appointment of a Special Envoy for the Abraham Accords is a step in the right direction.

As opposed to China’s approach of offering infrastructure development via its BRI and debt trap diplomacy in the Middle East, the Biden Administration seeks to advance the sustainable development of infrastructure in a transparent manner. The U.S. aims to achieve this by fostering healthy interdependency between states via free trade agreements. The Biden administration’s approach of vertical expansion is to deepen economic benefits to citizens of partnering countries.

The U.S. Development Finance Corporation is also offering loan guarantees to incentivize U.S. companies to invest in developing markets. This approach is far more transparent than China’s. Development Finance Corporation projects in Asia and Latin America could be replicated in the Middle East for lower-income countries. This would lead the U.S. to work with partners across the Middle East on projects that can create prosperity in poorer countries such as Jordan. In the long run, a common market in the Gulf, coupled with increased security, defense and intelligence ties across the region could offset Iranian influence.

The momentum toward normalization and ultimately a peace agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia is not going to be determined by their respective domestic policies or local concerns. Rather, a peace agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia will emerge from their continued incremental progress toward normalization to create markets and security frameworks.

This may come together within broader geopolitical concerns, such as U.S.-China competition to extend influence in the Gulf and across the Middle East.

Harley Lippman is a board member of the U.S. Agency for International Development’s Partnership for Peace Fund.