Election Day: An hour-by-hour viewer’s guide

For a solid hour on Tuesday, all eyes will be trained on Lexington, Ky., and its suburbs, where Rep. Andy Barr (R) is running for reelection against retired Marine Lt. Col. Amy McGrath (D).

That’s because Kentucky closes its polling places at 6 p.m. local time — and Barr’s 6th District is the only competitive race based entirely within the Eastern time zone.

Here’s an hour-by-hour look at how Election Day will unfold, and what to watch as the polls close.

6 p.m. Eastern — The Canary in Coal Country

Barr represents a district that voted for President Trump by a 15-point margin in 2016 — but it’s a seat with Democratic roots, one long held by former Rep. Ben Chandler (D). If McGrath pulls off an early upset, Republicans are likely going to have a very bad night. But if Barr hangs on, as polling indicates, the GOP’s House majority is still in play.

7 p.m. — The First Hints

Six states close their polling places at 7 p.m., from liberal Vermont to conservative South Carolina, and the rest of Kentucky.

{mosads}Vote-counting will begin in two of the hottest races in the country: Georgia’s gubernatorial race, a fierce battle between Secretary of State Brian Kemp (R) and state House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams (D), and Indiana’s Senate race, where Sen. Joe Donnelly (D) faces former state Rep. Mike Braun (R).

If Donnelly loses quickly, it would augur poorly for other red-state Democratic senators. But if he prevails, Sens. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) and Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.) may find reason for optimism.

In Virginia, voters in the Richmond suburbs and Norfolk will reveal some of the first hints of the size of the Democratic advantage in the House. GOP Reps. Scott Taylor and Dave Brat have tough fights on their hands, and a Democrat is even making a run at outgoing Rep. Tom Garrett’s (R) seat. If Democrats take two of those, the Republican majority is probably gone.

7:30 p.m. — A Blue Moon and a Blue Dog

Polls close in North Carolina, Ohio and West Virginia at this time. Two red-state Senate Democrats will see their fates decided: Sen. Sherrod Brown (Ohio) is likely to cruise to reelection, and Sen. Joe Manchin (W.Va.) is favored to win, but in a much tighter race.

Democrats will get the first signs of their ability to flip Republican-held governorships across the Midwest when Ohio begins counting its ballots. Former state Attorney General Richard Cordray (D), who was later head of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau in Washington, is fighting his successor, Mike DeWine (R), for the right to succeed term-limited Gov. John Kasich (R).

North Carolina experiences what they call a “blue moon” election, a rare year in which neither the governor nor a senator is on the ballot. That probably means lower turnout, but Democrats are running surprisingly strong races against Reps. George Holding (R) and Ted Budd (R), and for a seat held by Rep. Robert Pittenger (R), who lost his primary.

8 p.m. — The Big Enchilada

Sixteen states and the District of Columbia are done voting by 8 p.m. Eastern, including a handful of states that will give a fuller picture of the electorate’s mood.

Governor’s races will be decided in Alabama, Connecticut, Florida, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Tennessee.

{mossecondads}The biggest prize for Democrats would be in Florida, scene of a nasty battle between Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum (D) and former Rep. Ron DeSantis (R). In Connecticut, businessman Bob Stefanowski (R) is running a particularly tough race against progressive hero Ned Lamont (D). Expect Govs. Charlie Baker (R) of Massachusetts and Larry Hogan (R) of Maryland to win reelection easily, thanks to ticket-splitters who will also reelect Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Ben Cardin (D-Md.).

Vote-counting also begins in key Senate races in Florida, Missouri, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Tennessee. In Mississippi, expect Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) and former Agriculture Secretary Mike Espy (D) to head to a late November runoff.

The House battleground expands to Democratic targets in Florida, Illinois, Maine, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma — where a PAC linked to former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg is making a late play against Rep. Steve Russell (R) — and Pennsylvania. Democrats are going to pick up a handful of seats in Pennsylvania, where the state Supreme Court ordered district maps redrawn earlier this year.

Voters in the District of Columbia are likely to reelect Mayor Muriel Bowser (D).

Delaware and Rhode Island start their vote counts at 8 p.m., too.

8:30 p.m. — The (French) Hill to Die On

Arkansas voters are likely to reelect Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R). The only truly competitive race here is in the state’s 2nd District, where Rep. French Hill (R) faces a tough challenge from state Rep. Clarke Tucker (D). Hill is likely to win reelection, but the district has Democratic roots: Hill’s predecessor took over for Rep. Vic Snyder, a Democrat who held the Little Rock-based seat for 14 years.

9 p.m. — Go West, Young Man

The first Mountain West states start to close at this time, along with most of the Midwest.

Voters in Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, North Dakota, Texas and Wisconsin are electing senators. Democrats are hopeful that Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D) can defeat a charging Rep. Martha McSally (R) in Arizona, while Republicans believe Rep. Kevin Cramer (R) will oust Heitkamp in North Dakota. And Sen. Ted Cruz (R) has a leg up on Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D), despite the Democrat’s absolutely mammoth fundraising performance.

New governors will be elected in Colorado, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, South Dakota and Wyoming, all states where the incumbents are termed out. Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) is in the fight of his life, while Govs. Andrew Cuomo (D) of New York, Doug Ducey (R) of Arizona and Greg Abbott (R) of Texas are skating toward another term.

Democrats and Republicans are battling over House districts in Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, Texas and Wisconsin.

Voters in Louisiana don’t have many competitive races to decide, but they shouldn’t feel left out: The race for governor in 2019 kicks off just as soon as the polls close on Tuesday.

10 p.m. — Defining the Wave

If a Democratic blue wave is forming, we’ll get a sense of how high it is when polls close in Iowa, Montana, Nevada and Utah.

Reps. Rod Blum (R) and David Young (R) face stiff challenges in Iowa, and both could lose without a tremendous wave breaking. But what about GOP Rep. Steve King? While his district is much more conservative, King has become a lightning rod for associating himself with white supremacists across the country and around the world.

If Democrats are having a rough night in Senate races, this is the hour that will demonstrate just how bad it’s going: Their top target is Sen. Dean Heller (R-Nev.), who’s running even with Rep. Jacky Rosen (D) in most polls. Democrats are defending Sen. Jon Tester (Mont.), who is in a surprisingly close and late-breaking race against state Auditor Matt Rosendale (R).

In Utah, Rep. Mia Love (R) finds herself in an unexpectedly tough battle; one poll shows her losing to Salt Lake County Mayor Ben McAdams (D).

11 p.m. — The Best Coast

Polls close in four of the five states that touch the Pacific Ocean, along with Idaho.

Voters in California and Idaho are electing new governors. California voters, especially those in the Central Valley and Orange County, will decide the fates of a handful of endangered House Republicans.

In Washington, voters will decide a hard-fought contest for a congressional seat being vacated by Rep. Dave Reichert (R). If voters are really in the mood for change, Reps. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R) and Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) could also have uncomfortable nights — remember, no state kicked out more Democratic incumbents in the 1994 GOP wave than Washington.

Republicans have one more shot for an upset, this time in Oregon, where Gov. Kate Brown (D) is in a more difficult than expected battle for reelection.

Hawaii voters are likely to reelect Gov. David Ige (D) and send former Rep. Ed Case (D) back to Congress.

1 a.m. — The Aleutian Solution

The vast majority of polling places in Alaska close at midnight Eastern time, but seven hours after the first polls close in Kentucky, voters in parts of the Aleutian Islands will cast the final ballots of the 2018 general election.

Alaska voters will elect a new governor, after Gov. Bill Walker (I) dropped his reelection bid late last month. And one recent poll showed the dean of the House, Rep. Don Young (R), in trouble against education activist Alyse Galvin (D).