The climate tipping point everyone should be talking about

From heat waves to floods to wildfires, this summer has already brought a cascade of extreme weather and increasing climatic instability.

As emissions continue to rise, we not only risk intensifying climate impacts like these, but also the breaching of critical “tipping points” in the Earth’s climate system. Triggering these feedback loops could lead to runaway warming and push the earth’s climate into uncharted and dangerous territory.

Fortunately, there are also positive tipping points — including the development of new technologies and the bending of cost curves for clean energy — that can significantly enhance our ability to tackle climate change. A recent report by SystemiQ and the Bezos Earth Fund outlines some of these thresholds, and a roadmap for how public and private sectors can accelerate them. 

But there is another critical positive tipping point that is being overlooked: the pivot of climate from a source of partisan gridlock to an area of consistent congressional action enabled by bipartisan, pro-climate majorities in Congress. Few developments would better transform America’s — and the world’s — ability to tackle this challenge at speed and scale.

Despite this, the climate movement has come to view the partisan divide on climate change as immovable and is investing almost no resources to build a broader, bipartisan mandate for action. This is not only a strategic mistake, but also a self-fulfilling prophecy. If we don’t invest in the organizing infrastructure to support bipartisanship on climate change, then it’s not going to happen.

For too long, the U.S. has been stuck in a vicious cycle of tit-for-tat political gamesmanship around climate policymaking. The result is partisan bills that are exposed to dismantling by subsequent congresses, a flimsy patchwork of environmental regulations that see-saw between presidential administrations, and a broader cloud of uncertainty that diminishes the private sector’s ability to make long-term investments and undermines global confidence in American leadership. This is no way to set our nation’s climate and energy agenda. 

We need consistent majorities in Congress that will support legislation to reduce emissions: 60 votes in the Senate and 218 in the House, including both Republicans and Democrats.

Reaching this political tipping point would unlock more ambitious policy possibilities in the U.S., and ensure climate progress is durable and effective. And given the size of our economy — and its unique capacity for innovation and technological spillover — even small changes in the American energy and technology landscape would have global implications. It is no wonder why so many other positive tipping points referenced in SystemiQ’s report hinge on continued legislative action.

For those who think that the politics of climate in the U.S. are set in stone, the trend lines tell a different story. Indeed, the politics already are changing.

First, the public mandate for climate action is growing across partisan and ideological lines, especially among young voters. In Congress, Republicans are increasingly engaging in the climate dialogue, as evidenced by now significant GOP participation in climate caucuses across both chambers. In addition, important pieces of climate and energy legislation like the Energy Act of 2020, the Growing Climate Solutions Act, and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, enjoyed bipartisan support.

Second, investments in clean energy infrastructure and manufacturing are booming, driving dollars and high-paying jobs into communities across America. Republican states and districts are poised to receive the lion’s share of new clean energy investments, creating fertile ground for further bipartisan leadership on this issue.

Third, competition with China and the growing awareness of America’s “carbon advantage” is bringing new allies to the climate cause. Recent research has made clear that U.S. manufacturing is far cleaner than that of our biggest trade competitors — especially China. Monetizing this advantage would give domestic companies a leg-up, weakening our adversaries and returning jobs, critical supply chains, and manufacturing to our shores. This alignment of interests provides further opportunities for legislative action. 
The needed ingredients are in place to trigger this crucial political tipping point. But just like other positive tipping points, we need to marshal a coordinated effort to accelerate the crossing of this threshold. Political change is difficult. But it is also very achievable, especially with real focus and philanthropic resources. And given all that’s at stake due to climate change, the likelihood of divided government for at least the next decade, and the power of this tipping point to accelerate so many others, it’s hard to imagine a more strategically decisive effort to make.

This political tipping point is rightly daunting, but also equally a source of hope. Once we choose to unlock it, the U.S. can finally bring its A game to address the climate challenge.

Former Rep. Bob Inglis (R-S.C.) served in Congress from 1993-1999 and 2005-2011. He is the executive director of republicEn.org, a growing group of conservatives who care about climate change. George Behrakis is the co-founder of the Climate Solutions Action Fund.