The Hill’s Morning Report — Presented by PhRMA — Dem victories in `18 will not calm party turbulence

by Jonathan Easley and Alexis Simendinger - 10/12/18 7:05 AM ET

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Democrats are debating tactics and the lengths to which they should go in opposing President Trump with the midterm elections less than a month away and the House majority within reach.

Trump and GOP leaders have turned the protests that broke out in opposition to Justice Brett Kavanaugh into a campaign issue, accusing Democrats of stoking angry liberal “mobs” they say are teetering on the edge of violence.

House Majority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.) (op-ed): Dem threats of violence are a direct threat to our democracy.

Democrats reject the characterization of protesters as “mobs” and have accused Republicans of hypocrisy, noting that Trump routinely stirs up rallygoers to jeer at the press and his political enemies.

But some Democrats appear to be unsettled by the calls to confront Republicans in public and by the images of protesters shouting at senators in elevators, stalking their homes and pounding on the doors of the Supreme Court.

In an appearance Thursday on NBC’s “Today,” former first lady Michelle Obama pushed back against Democrats who have advocated for aggressive tactics.

“Think about how you want your kids to be raised … Do you want them afraid of their neighbors? Do you want them angry? Do you want them vengeful? … Fear is not a proper motivator. … Hope wins out.” – Michelle Obama

The remarks appeared aimed at former President Obama’s Attorney General Eric Holder, who a day earlier had spun Michelle Obama’s famous line, “when they go low, we go high,” into, “when they go low we kick `em.”

Holder, who is close to former President Obama and is heading up an effort to promote redistricting in the states, is weighing a run for president. In a Thursday tweet, he clarified his remarks and dismissed the hand-wringing that looped through social media and Fox News.

But the back and forth underscores the balance Democrats must strike between satisfying an energized liberal base and the need to maintain a level of appeal to independent voters who might be eager for change but don’t identify with the so-called resistance.

Democratic Senate leader Charles Schumer (N.Y.) has already turned the page on the recent Supreme Court battle and is focusing now on health care during the final stretch to Nov. 6, as polls show some GOP Senate candidates surging in red states after the bitterly contentious Kavanaugh confirmation.

“The size of the Democratic advantage in the fight for control of the House is unclear with a month until the midterm elections, and there are recent signs Republicans might have improved their position, possibly because of the fight over Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination to the Supreme Court. Trump has been highly effective in simultaneously building a resolute army of supporters and an equally determined cadre of voters who can’t stand him. One crucial pillar of his political success has been the vacuity of his Democratic opposition.” – Thomas B. Edsall, The New York Times

There will be impassioned debates among Democrats about the direction of the party after the midterm elections, regardless of the outcome, as some liberals believe the focus on Trump has delayed an intraparty reckoning about how best to achieve progressive victories and reclaim white working-class voters.

The liberal magazine The Nation on Thursday released a new report on the state of the party in the era of Trump and pointed to weaknesses.

The authors write that this year’s positive developments emerged from the grass roots, rather than from Democratic leaders in Washington or the national party. Indeed, the party has been debating – loudly and on the campaign trail – whether elective strides next month should result in fresh leadership next year. A new generation of younger and in some cases less Washington-focused Democratic candidates want to see change.

From The Nation’s report:

> “The Democratic Party has implemented modest reforms, but corporate power continues to dominate the party.”

> “The Democratic Party still isn’t offering a bold vision that can excite young adults, a demographic known for not voting much.”

> “During the last 12 months, voters of color have been key to notable electoral wins. But the party has a long way to go.”

The Hill: Dems struggle to ensure Latino support in midterms.

The liberal group Working America, which has knocked on 1.3 million doors in Ohio and Pennsylvania and says it has spoken with more than 500,000 working-class voters in the past year, warned in a Thursday email about, “the precarious nature of swing voters leaning toward Democrats.”

They found deep frustration among Trump voters in the Rust Belt and a willingness to abandon Republicans. But they did not find a wholesale commitment by potential swing voters to joining the Democratic Party.

“It seems that this is about more than just a partisan shift. From our vantage point, these voters reflect the great volatility of American politics over the last decade. These swing voters are people who do not relate to either party, but are yearning for something to change.” – Working America

More on the Democrats … Some Americans are turning to their psychologists, believing Trump has disrupted their lives or relationships (Politico) … Michelle Obama, the most popular Democrat in the country, is about to go on a highly anticipated book tour that is likely to remind the country of her political muscle (The Hill) … Hollywood and its progressive activists rewrite a script to resist Trump in the midterms (Reuters).

LEADING THE DAY

*** OVERNIGHT STORM UPDATE *** Hurricane Michael and its remnants as a tropical storm mowed through Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas, killing at least seven people and leaving massive destruction in its wake. Authorities used helicopters and boats in recovery efforts on Thursday, struggling to reach leveled parts of Florida cut off from ground access. More than 1 million homes and businesses in four states were without electricity and nearly 7,000 people were displaced in shelters. Four hospitals and a dozen nursing facilities had to close in Florida and Georgia.

Trump said he will visit Florida soon to survey the devastation and discuss recovery.

“The mother of all bombs doesn’t do any more damage than this.” – Tom Bailey, former mayor of Mexico Beach (see NBC News drone footage of what remains of the town)

> The New York Times published a gallery of heart-rending photographs from the storm’s path HERE.

> Behind every massive natural disaster lurks politics, and just weeks before Florida’s Senate race ends between Republican Gov. Rick Scott and Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum (D), speculation abounds about a potential boost for either candidate among Sunshine State voters after their appearances during wall-to-wall storm coverage (The Associated Press/Chicago Sun-Times).

****

WHITE HOUSE & ADMINISTRATION: Stock futures were pointing up this morning, but the president has been unhappy about the massive sell-off in financial markets this week, rising interest rates and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions. He has not, however, found fault with the administration’s tariffs policy, part of a brew of indicators unnerving investors.

“I think the Fed is overly aggressive” in raising rates, Trump told The Washington Examiner during an interview. “Other than that, we are doing so well, it’s incredible. …The numbers, the corporate earnings, the liquidity, it’s incredible. Our country is so strong. We’ve never been in a position as good as we are now, economically.”

> White House national economic adviser Larry Kudlow told reporters on Thursday that the president’s repeated public objections to Fed rate hikes intended to stave off inflation are an expression of his personal opinion, not presidential policy directions to the central bank. (Lawmakers, economists, analysts and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell would prefer the president mute such opinions from his bully pulpit.)

The S&P 500 index on Thursday fell below a key threshold watched by traders, signaling to some that the bull market has ended. “It can be a sign of more trouble ahead,” one trader explained (CNBC).

Stocks sold off again on Thursday; investors dumped equities around the globe in part because of fears of rapidly rising interest rates. The financials and energy sectors fell about 3 percent each. Tech shares failed to rebound after posting steep losses, and the erosion took the indexes to their worst two-day decline in eight months (CNBC).

Reuters: Call ‘em crazy, but Fed likely to keep raising rates.

> The heads of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Thursday urged the U.S. and China to de-escalate a dispute over Beijing’s technology development strategy, warning of potential lasting damage to the global economy. Christine Lagarde, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, said she would advise Beijing and Washington to cool down, fix aspects of the world trading system that need fixing and “don’t break it” (The Associated Press).

Hours later, signs emerged suggesting the advice may have resonated in some capitals.

> China: Trump will meet with President Xi Jinping in November at the Group of 20 multilateral summit in Buenos Aires, Argentina, spokesmen for both countries confirmed on Thursday. On the agenda: Trade tensions (The Wall Street Journal).

Department of Justice: The president is mulling potential candidates who could replace Jeff Sessions, on the assumption the attorney general could depart at the end of this year. The names of five candidates are floated (The Wall Street Journal).

U.N. ambassador post: The president’s favored candidate to succeed Nikki Haley later this year as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Dina Powell, told the White House she wishes to remain at Goldman Sachs (CNN).

Missing Saudi journalist: Trump on Thursday said he is opposed to any suggestions to sanction Saudi Arabia by blocking arms sales as a way to try to gain more information about Jamal Khashoggi, a Saudi journalist who has been missing since Oct. 2 in Instanbul (Reuters).

Khashoggi, a staunch critic of the Saudi royal family and a contributing writer to The Washington Post who was in exile in the United States, vanished inside the Saudi consulate in Turkey 10 days ago.

“We have investigators over there and we’re working with Turkey and frankly we’re working with Saudi Arabia. We want to find out what happened. He went in, and it certainly doesn’t look like he came out. It certainly doesn’t look like he’s around.” – Trump

Turkish government officials have told U.S. officials they have audio and video evidence that Khashoggi was interrogated, tortured, killed and his body dismembered inside the Saudi consulate. It was not immediately clear that U.S. officials have seen the footage or heard the audio evidence themselves (The Washington Post).

> Congress & Khashoggi: Top Republican senators say they’re hopeful the Trump administration will heed their warnings and act on the Senate’s request for the White House to conduct a statutorily required investigation into whether Saudi sanctions are needed in the wake of Khashoggi’s disappearance and concerns the journalist was murdered (The Hill).

CNN’s Nic Robertson/analysis: Khashoggi walked into the Saudi consulate in Istanbul understanding he’d been threatened in the past – and despite friends fearing it could be a trap.

Al-Monitor’s Bruce Riedel: What happened to Khashoggi?

American pastor in Turkey: NBC News and The Washington Post reported on Thursday that the United States and Turkey reached a secret sanctions-lifting agreement in which some charges against imprisoned U.S. pastor Andrew Brunson would be dropped and he would be released at a court hearing today or soon. The State Department said Thursday night it was unaware of any deal with Turkey for Brunson’s release (Reuters).

Russia probe: Trump’s legal team is preparing answers to written questions provided by special counsel Robert Mueller. The move could be a major development after months of negotiations and signals that the Mueller investigation may be nearing a final phase (CNN).

Melania Trump: ABC News will broadcast a special program tonight at 10 p.m. ET about the first lady, drawn from an interview she granted the network during her recent trip to Africa.

Celebrity & policy: Rapper Kanye West came to the White House on Thursday for lunch and stayed to be part of a show. Invited to discuss criminal justice reform and violence in Chicago, his hometown, with Trump and White House adviser Jared Kushner, West also heaped elaborate praise on the president, donned a Make America Great Again cap, and hugged Trump across the Resolute desk while cameras caught every move (and word) (The Hill). Trump’s quote of the day: “That was quite something.” Hours later, after a costume change, West became a social media curiosity while standing atop a table at the Apple store in Washington’s Georgetown neighborhood, offering a “keynote” (Page Six).

IN FOCUS/SHARP TAKES

CAMPAIGNS & POLITICS: It’s a weekend full of campaigning for the White House.

Trump will hold a rally tonight outside of Cincinnati in an effort to boost Rep. Jim Renacci (R-Ohio), who has so far not mounted a very vigorous challenge to Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), who has a double-digit lead in the polls.

On Saturday, Trump will campaign in Richmond, Ky. Rep. Andy Barr (R-Ky.) is in a tight race there against Democrat Amy McGrath. Trump won the district by more than 15 points in 2016.

Vice President Pence, meanwhile, is headed to the Midwest.

On Friday, Pence will campaign in Springfield, Ill., for Rep. Rodney Davis (R-Ill.). Democrat Hillary Clinton won the district more than 5 points in 2016.

After that, Pence goes home to Indiana for two days of campaigning for businessman Mike Braun (R), who is running close to Sen. Joe Donnelly (D). Former Vice President Joe Biden will campaign for Donnelly in Hammond this weekend.

> NPR sat down with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) on Thursday. A few excerpts:

On Republicans maintaining a majority in the Senate:

“I’m increasingly optimistic that we may hold our majority … one of the good things about the Supreme Court fight as it underscores for Republican voters that the Senate is in the personnel business. Lose the Senate and the project of confirming judges is over for the last two years of President Trump. That I think is a scary prospect to the people who like what we’ve been doing on the judge project and I hope will help us hold on to our majority.” – McConnell

On women and minority voters:

“I don’t think there’s any question that we would like to be doing better than we are with Hispanic Americans, although some of the most prominent Hispanic politicians in America happen to be Republicans … With regard to women voters, we’ve always had something of a gender gap. It’s never been as wide as it is now … I think we can improve our position with women voters and with Hispanic voters for sure. With African-Americans we haven’t been able to make much headway.” – McConnell

More from campaigns and politics … In the Georgia, advocacy groups filed suit on Thursday asserting voter suppression and seeking to reinstate 53,000 pending voter registrations sidelined on “pending” status by the Republican candidate for governor (The New York Times) … In a cloudy political environment, Republicans see silver linings in blue states long dominated by Democrats (The Hill) … Kavanaugh tensions linger after bitter fight (The Hill) … Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) trails by 10 points in his reelection bid (NBC News) … Casino mogul Sheldon Adelson is putting tens of millions of dollars behind GOP candidates in a last-minute push to save Republican majorities in Congress (Politico).

The Morning Report is created by journalists Jonathan Easley jeasley@digital-stage.thehill.com & Alexis Simendinger asimendinger@digital-stage.thehill.com. Suggestions? Tips? We want to hear from you! Share The Hill’s reporting and newsletters, and encourage others to SUBSCRIBE!

OPINION

Global hotspots are getting hotter, by Michael Dempsey, national intelligence fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, opinion contributor, The Hill. https://bit.ly/2ycc6y0

Conditions exacerbate vulnerability to hurricanes, and public data can help, by Jeff Schlegelmilch, Jonathan Sury and Irwin Redlener, opinion contributors, The Hill. https://bit.ly/2A6rKwf

WHERE AND WHEN

The House is in recess and will reconvene on Nov. 13.

The Senate is out until after Election Day. A deal that confirmed 15 judicial nominees Thursday evening as well as 21 executive-branch nominees allowed the Senate to wrap up its work until after the Nov. 6 midterm elections (The Washington Post).

The president heads to Lebanon, Ohio, in the Cincinnati area this evening for a political rally and roundtable, during which he’ll stump for Republican candidates.

Pence will be in Springfield, Ill., today and home-state Indiana (Indianapolis) this evening for political events.

Makan Delrahim, Justice Department assistant attorney general for the antitrust division, will speak at noon to a joint conference of the National Diversity Coalition and National Asian American Coalition in Los Angeles, about how antitrust enforcement can promote small business growth.