Trump indictments leave him fighting for higher office — and maybe his freedom

Former President Trump isn’t just campaigning for the White House. Increasingly, he could be campaigning for his freedom.

Trump this week announced he has been informed he is a target in the Justice Department investigation into his efforts to remain in power after losing the 2020 election, a development that could foreshadow additional federal charges against him.

Trump has not been convicted of any crime yet, nor is it certain he will be. 

But as he faces a potential third criminal indictment, with an additional state-level probe into his actions ongoing in Georgia, the stakes for Trump to win the 2024 election are ratcheting up, with a victory next year perhaps the best way to insulate himself from conviction or jail time.

“It’s a huge factor,” said Sean Walsh, who served in the White House press office in the Reagan and George H.W. Bush administrations. 

“At a minimum, if he wins the presidency again then he can say he was vindicated in the public eye,” Walsh said. “No. 2, legally if he is president of the United States, he could potentially pardon himself … Trump’s best bet at getting out of all his legal issues is becoming president again. That’s his get out of jail free card.”

The lines between Trump’s political fortunes and his legal ones are steadily blurring as the cases pile up.

A trial is currently set for March on charges against Trump in Manhattan over a hush money scheme during the 2016 campaign to keep quiet a previous affair. And on Friday, a judge in Florida scheduled the trial over his handling of classified documents and refusal to give them back to the government for May.

At a campaign town hall in Iowa Tuesday, Fox News host Sean Hannity asked Trump how he managed to seem so unbothered as the investigations and charges grow.

“It bothers me. It bothers me for everybody in this incredible sold-out audience,” Trump said. “I got the letter on Sunday night. Think of it … And they’re in a rush because they want to interfere. It’s interference with the election.”

New York Times reporter Maggie Haberman said on CNN this week that Trump advisers have been “pretty blunt” in their view that he has to win the election to guarantee he does not face jail time.

The Trump campaign did not respond to a request for comment about whether Trump himself views his 2024 bid as a fight for his freedom.

But it is clear that winning the presidency could protect Trump from some of the legal consequences he could face in the months to come.

If Trump is elected in 2024, experts said he could pressure the Department of Justice (DOJ) to shut down any ongoing investigations into his conduct or fire officials who refuse to go along with his demands, similar to the Saturday Night Massacre under then-President Richard Nixon.

The DOJ has a decades-old policy that a sitting president cannot be indicted, meaning Trump would be protected from facing new charges.

And, should he be found guilty prior to the election, a 2024 victory would allow Trump to move to pardon himself, something that is untested in the courts but that experts believe he could practically do.

A handful of Trump’s rivals for the 2024 Republican nomination have also indicated they would be inclined to pardon him of any federal crimes should they win, again underscoring the degree to which the 2024 election could factor into his fate.

Should Trump be convicted in New York or Georgia, state-level crimes would not be subject to a presidential pardon. And felony convictions would have additional consequences, such as preventing Trump from voting.

Experts said a 2024 victory for Trump after state-level convictions would create a complicated scenario where the courts would likely have to get involved. One potential outcome would be that Trump would seek to have the courts overturn his convictions or petition the Justice Department to get involved.

Trump has maintained his innocence of any wrongdoing in the Manhattan case and the documents case, pleading not guilty in both. He has dismissed the investigations into his conduct around the 2020 election, both in Georgia and at the Justice Department, as politically motivated.

But legal experts noted that the sheer volume of charges, should Trump face additional counts over his efforts to overturn the 2020 election results and remain in power, could make it more difficult for him to avoid all convictions.

The DOJ investigation is based in Washington, D.C., which poses another risk for Trump, experts said, something the former president seemed to acknowledge when he shared news that he was a target of the probe.

“Going forward I think there’s almost no doubt he’s going to be indicted in Washington. And because he’s going to be indicted in Washington and the potential for a jury that would sit and judge him in Washington, his prospects for remaining free got a lot darker,” said William Banks, a professor emeritus at the Syracuse University College of Law.

Banks noted that prosecutors have already had success getting convictions in for several individuals who were tried for roles in the violence on Jan. 6 and efforts to overturn the election.

Another complicating factor for Trump is that his legal troubles may be a significant hurdle to getting elected a second time.

GOP strategists and even some 2024 candidates have argued that while it may have a muted impact in the primary — or even boost him among the party faithful — Trump’s long trail of legal problems will turn off independent voters in a general election, costing Republicans a chance at taking back the White House.

“The more that Trump’s legal problems are front and center, it reminds independent voters of why they rejected Trump in 2020,” said Alex Conant, who worked on Sen. Marco Rubio’s (R-Fla.) 2016 presidential campaign. “If we’re talking about Jan. 6 in the days before the 2024 election, Republicans are going to lose. The fact these court cases are going to be ongoing, it all is a huge distraction from what Republicans actually want the 2024 election to be about.”