The Hill’s Morning Report — Presented by PhRMA — Kavanaugh fight electrifies base voters in stretch run to the midterms

 

 

 

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The Senate’s 50-48 vote to confirm President Trump’s deeply controversial nominee to the Supreme Court sets up a one-month sprint to a midterm election in which both parties believe their bases have been electrified by the brutal court battle and deepening national political divisions.

The Hill: Winners and losers from the Kavanaugh court battle.

Associate Justice Brett Kavanaugh will be sworn in again today, this time by the president, following a confirmation fight that appears to have energized conservatives, who believe Kavanaugh was the victim of character assassination and a smear campaign from a “liberal mob.”

Republicans are still facing the possibility of a rout in the House, but GOP leaders believe their base voters better understand the political stakes after the Supreme Court battle, and will turn out to ensure they keep their majority in the Senate because of it (The Hill).

“Our base is on fire.” — Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) to The Hill.

The Hill: Democrats see blue tsunami in the House, path to Senate majority narrows.

The Hill: Trump, GOP aim to weaponize Kavanaugh vote ahead of November.

Democrats are disappointed by the outcome of the court fight but believe it will light a match beneath the already simmering anger and disgust at Trump and the Republican Congress. Liberals are looking to capitalize, believing the GOP has done long-term damage to its brand among women voters, who are primed to turn out in record numbers this November.

Reuters: Women’s groups to use Kavanaugh rage to boost turnout.

The Hill: Democrats look to women to take back the House after Kavanaugh fight.

There will be short-term and long-term electoral consequences for individual senators, as well.

CBS News: Supreme Court battle motivates partisans. GOP up in Senate races in Texas, Tennessee. Democrats lead in Arizona, New Jersey.

 

 

The polls were already moving against Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D) in North Dakota. Does her “no” vote on Kavanaugh in a state Trump carried easily in 2016 send Rep. Kevin Cramer (R) to the Senate?

In an interview last night on CBS’s “60 Minutes,” Heitkamp was asked if it would have been better for her reelection bid to have supported Trump’s Supreme Court nominee.

           “I don’t think there’s any doubt about that.” – Heitkamp

On the other end of the spectrum, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) may have secured another term in the upper chamber by voting “yes.”

The Associated Press: Manchin scorched from both sides after Kavanaugh vote.

 

 

Meanwhile, Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), whose last-minute decision to back Kavanaugh helped put him over the top, may have already drawn a high-profile challenger for 2020.

 

 

The consensus: The proximity of the Kavanaugh saga to the midterm elections injects fresh uncertainty into a volatile electorate. But the November results will satisfy few and will likely only aggravate the seismic political debates — in existence well before Trump’s presidency — raging across the country heading into yet another presidential election cycle.

Repercussions and Perspectives

The Hill: Impact of the Kavanaugh confirmation hearings on the Supreme Court.

Aaron Blake: GOP secured its greatest amount of political power and leverage since at least the Great Depression.

Amy Walter: The war that never ends.

Salena Zito: Elites are the ones dividing the country.

Sabrina Hersi Issa: Kavanaugh confirmation shows U.S. does not take sexual assault seriously.

CNN: Senate Democrats say Michael Avenatti undercut their case against Kavanaugh.

 

 

LEADING THE DAY

CAMPAIGNS & POLITICS: Trump is in Orlando today to address the International Association of Chiefs of Police. It’s not explicitly a political event, but Florida Gov. Rick Scott (R), who is running in a dead heat against Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Fla.), will be on hand.

The Tampa Bay Times reports that it’s unclear whether former Rep. Ron DeSantis (R-Fla.), who is in a tough battle for governor against progressive Democrat Andrew Gillum, will be there.

Trump held a rally for DeSantis in July but was reportedly angry that DeSantis disputed his claims about the death count from a hurricane that devastated Puerto Rico last year.

Later this week, the president will hold rallies in Iowa, Pennsylvania and Ohio.

Vice President Pence, meanwhile, is in full campaign mode today, first with a swing through Texas, where he’ll stump for Sen. Ted Cruz and Rep. Pete Sessions, both of whom are in surprisingly tight races. Later in the day, Pence will fly to Springfield, Mo. to campaign for Republican Josh Hawley, who is looking to unseat Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.).

> Political junkies interested in 2018 House, Senate and governors races should tune in today to C-SPAN, which will broadcast four candidate debates: Washington Senate, Indiana Senate, Pennsylvania’s 16th District and Ohio governor.

More from the campaign trail … Suburban voters will decide control of Congress (The Hill) … The Democratic presidential primary season is already under way (The Hill) … Wall Street is booming under Trump but many of its donors are embracing Democrats (The New York Times).

IN FOCUS/SHARP TAKES

➔  ADMINISTRATION & WHITE HOUSE: North Korea: Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, making his fourth trip to North Korea, on Sunday discussed with Kim Jong Un a proposed second summit with Trump, not as yet scheduled, and elements of the denuclearization pact affirmed by the two leaders in June in Singapore. One unnamed U.S. official described the pace of progress with Pyongyang as “a long haul,” although Pompeo spoke of “significant progress” in North Korea but without offering details after flying to South Korea (The New York Times).

“As President Trump said, there are many steps along the way and we took one of them today. It was another step forward. So this is, I think, a good outcome for all of us,” Pompeo said after privately briefing White House national security adviser John Bolton and White House chief of staff John Kelly when he reached Seoul (South China Morning Post).

The secretary later told reporters the two sides are “pretty close” to locking in details for a second Trump-Kim meeting. And in the meantime, “We will be having more frequent and higher-level working group discussions than we’ve had in some time on a set of issues.”

 

 

The secretary’s final stop during his four-country trip is in Beijing today.     

China: On his way to Japan on Friday, Pompeo told reporters China will be part of the solution to the North Korean crisis, discounting the possibility that worsening tensions with the government of President Xi Jinping would hamper efforts to persuade Pyongyang to give up its nuclear weapons (Reuters). But following discussions in Beijing today, the two sides showcased frictions over trade and trust during public remarks (Reuters).

Officials from China, Russia, and North Korea will meet this week in Moscow to discuss denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula, conferring in Pompeo’s wake (The Washington Examiner).

> U.S. tensions with China over trade and intellectual property are seen as part of an aggressive and multi-step effort by the Trump administration to isolate Beijing (The New York Times).

> The Chinese Communist Party announced late Sunday that the missing president of Interpol, Chinese national Meng Hongwei, is detained in China on “suspicion of violating the law” and was “under the supervision” of an anti-corruption watchdog tied to the party. A few hours later, Interpol said it had received Meng’s resignation “with immediate effect.” Meng’s wife, who reported her husband missing, remained at their home in Lyon, France, where Interpol is headquartered (The New York Times). Meng became president the global policing agency in November 2016, the first Chinese to hold the position.

The Morning Report is created by journalists Jonathan Easley jeasley@digital-stage.thehill.com & Alexis Simendinger asimendinger@digital-stage.thehill.com. Suggestions? Tips? We want to hear from you! Share The Hill’s reporting and newsletters, and encourage others to SUBSCRIBE!

 

OPINION

Justice is served in Laquan McDonald case, by Joey Jackson, CNN. https://cnn.it/2E3YBpn

The balance of China, Japan and Trump’s America, by Joseph S. Nye, Asia Times http://bit.ly/2C2ktig

WHERE AND WHEN

The House is in recess and will reconvene on Nov. 13. Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) will deliver remarks and take questions at a National Press Club Newsmaker event at 4 p.m.

The Senate returns on Tuesday.

The president will speak at 1:30 p.m. to the International Association of Chiefs of Police Annual Convention, which is meeting in Orlando, Fla. Back at the White House tonight, he participates in a swearing-in ceremony for Kavanaugh at 7 p.m. in the East Room.  

Vice President Pence will be in Texas and Missouri today to stump for GOP House and Senate candidates. Pence returns to Washington this evening.

Secretary of State Pompeo is in Beijing, wrapping up a four-country trip to Japan, North Korea, South Korea and China. In the afternoon local time, he meets with Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi, followed by Chinese Politburo member Yang Jiechi.

Assistant Attorney General Makan Delrahim will give the keynote address at the Federal Circuit Bench and Bar Association’s Global Series event in Ottawa, Canada, at 12:15 p.m.

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ELSEWHERE

> Climate: United Nations report on climate carries life-or-death warning (The Associated Press). This morning, the Nobel Prize for economics was awarded to Yale University climate economist William Nordhaus and to New York University’s Paul Romer, for his work on endogenous growth theory (CNN).

> Politics: How a former Obama operative built a new anti-Republican attack machine, by Joshua Green (Bloomberg Businessweek).

> Politics: Will the Democrats wake up before 2020, by Dan Balz (The Washington Post Magazine). “[T]here are enough question marks about even the best-known potential candidates to prompt as many as two dozen people to think about running. Trump taught everyone that the unthinkable is no longer the impossible.”

> FLOTUS: If you weren’t following New York Times photojournalist Doug Mills’s coverage of Melania Trump’s trip to Africa last week, take a minute to look at the interesting pix he posted to Twitter @dougmillsnyt.

 

 

THE CLOSER

And finally… It’s Columbus Day!

In 1937, Christopher Columbus was honored with an official U.S. federal holiday, although only about than half the states commemorate it. Columbus never set foot on the North American mainland during his 1492 exploration seeking a sea route to Asia. His discovery (“Land!”) was a happy accident for the sailors aboard his three-ship fleet, since he underestimated the earth’s circumference and the time it would take to navigate the expanse of ocean.

By December 1492, the ship Santa Maria broke apart on a coral reef near what is now Haiti, forcing Columbus to leave behind 40 crew members who were tasked to establish the first European settlement in the Americas. They were never seen again. Columbus’s autocratic and brutal governance of Hispaniola was so controversial that he was recalled to Spain under arrest just eight years later.

While some would like to rescind the holiday, for the time being in Columbus’s honor federal workers get a day off, retailers tout October sales, and U.S. presidents offer annual salutes.

“On Columbus Day, we commemorate the achievements of this skilled Italian explorer and recognize his courage, willpower, and ambition – all values we cherish as Americans,” Trump said in his proclamation.