Hurricane forecast worsens, above-average activity expected this year

Hurricane predicting experts at Colorado State University (CSU) now expect above-average storm activity in 2023, including 18 named hurricanes and tropical storms this year, an increase from predictions made earlier in the year.

The original forecast included only 13 named storms.

The new predictions from the CSU team released Thursday cite record warm sea temperatures in the tropical and subtropical portions of the Atlantic Ocean for the increased projection. Those warmer temperatures are likely to increase storm activity, they said.

However, the researchers said they have a low level of certainty in their prediction because of an El Niño force — shearing winds from the west that would usually weaken storms before they get serious enough to form hurricanes — that is expected later this year.

“The extreme anomalous warmth in the Atlantic may counteract some of the typical El Niño-driven wind shear,” lead writer Phil Klotzbach said.

The exact prediction includes nine hurricanes, where winds reach at least 74 mph, and four major hurricanes, where winds reach up to 111 mph or greater. The April prediction had expected only six hurricanes.

An average year contains 14 storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes, according to the report.

Researchers also estimate around a 50 percent chance that a major hurricane makes landfall in the continental U.S. this year, higher than the average of 43 percent.

Four large storms have already formed this year, three of them tropical storms in June after one unnamed storm in January.

CSU researchers have predicted hurricane seasons for 40 years, and 2023 is now expected to be slightly above the average.

“As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them,” Klotzbach said. “They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.”