Biden’s official, but it’s a long road to 2024

The 2024 election kicked into higher gear on Tuesday when President Biden released a video announcing his intention to run for a second term. The ad portrays the Democratic standard-bearer as a chief executive who wants to restore American prosperity and sanity after four years of extreme chaos, deadly COVID-19 and failed coups.

The soft-launch video was more motivational and aspirational than educational — the message was, “Let’s finish the job.” It featured images designed to create enthusiasm among minority and young voters who are concerned about the president’s age but vote Democratic when they bother to vote. There was plenty of pushback against MAGA, including the opening scene about the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol, but little about the Biden’s substantial list of accomplishments.

The president faces both obstacles and opportunities on his way to extending his lease at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

His standing in the polls is nothing to write home to Scranton about. Nagging inflation and concern over the state of the nation have depressed voters and his standing in the polls. His job rating in the new NBC national poll hovers precariously at 41 percent. His approval rating for handling the economy is even lower.

Viewing his numbers in isolation should give Democrats pause, but as the president often says, “don’t judge me against the Almighty, judge me against the alternative.” That should give the GOP pause, because the Republican front-runner is none other than Donald Trump, who has been twice impeached, once indicted, and was the instigator of the abortive Capitol coup in 2021.

In the kingdom of the blind, the one-eyed man is king. The NBC survey indicates that while the president is unpopular, with a minus 10 percent net personal rating, his predecessor is even deeper underwater, at minus 19 percent.

The president has some heavy lifting ahead of him to recast his image; an incumbent should never stand or fall on the weakness of his opponent, especially if the GOP smartens up and nominates someone other than Trump.

The first few months of the year has improved Trump’s fortunes within his party, with rising poll numbers and endorsements from congressional Republicans. But it’s way too early to accept the conventional wisdom that he is cruising toward a third nomination.

The former president’s most formidable challenger, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, has been shaky coming out of the starting gate, which is not surprising for a novice presidential contender. There’s still plenty of time for him to steady the ship, however — and for others to throw their respective hats in the ring.

The distaste that the general electorate has for Trump contrasts greatly with his standing among Republican primary voters. Trump starts with the support of about half of the GOP faithful, while DeSantis enjoys the support of about a third of the Republican electorate.

Don’t pay too much attention to primary poll numbers — they are about as stable as spring weather in New England. The gap between the Republican front-runners is only 15 percent. A lead like that could dissipate completely in the heat of a tough primary campaign. Trump’s indictment on 34 felony counts by a Manhattan grand jury has strengthened his bid, and a conviction might even secure the nomination in the bizarro world of GOP politics.

But everything that helps Trump’s quest for the Republican nod hurts him in a matchup against Biden next fall. DeSantis, by contrast, would be a tougher opponent for the president. The governor is not burdened with personal baggage, and he has a military background and a stable family life.

DeSantis has his own challenges, though — the biggest problem he would need to deal with is his signature on a new Florida law that would ban abortions after six weeks, when the NBC survey reveals that most Americans are pro-choice. The governor is also charisma-challenged. Wall Street Journal columnist Peggy Noonan wrote, he “carries a vibe […] that he’d unplug your life support to recharge his cellphone.”

In an ideal world, an incumbent should be positioned to win on his own merits without regard to the foibles of his opponents. But it’s clear that we don’t live in a nation anywhere close to ideal, as two out of every three Americans think the country is headed in the wrong direction. Whenever the public is in such as a bad temper, chaos will reign supreme, and the body politic will react with violent mood swings like my children when they were teenagers.

A Chinese invasion of Taiwan, for example, and the subsequent economic chaos and armed action would test the president. His handling of the crisis would have a dramatic impact on his fortunes. So, strap yourself in — it will be a wild ride through the next 18 months.

Brad Bannon is a Democratic pollster, CEO of Bannon Communications Research and the host of his weekly aggressively progressive podcast, Deadline D.C. with Brad Bannon. Follow him on Twitter at @BradBannon.