What’s at stake as Ukraine clings onto Bakhmut

Ukraine’s lines are holding against a Russian onslaught in Bakhmut as both Kyiv and Moscow appear unwilling to give up a town that has become symbolic of the war’s brutality.

After signaling a potential retreat last week, Ukrainian troops have yet to withdraw and are still holding onto their fortified positions in the center of the city. 

And Russian forces, while struggling to encircle the city, are putting tremendous pressure on Ukrainian troops through constant, grinding assaults. 

Bakhmut has been reduced to rubble and its once-70,000 inhabitants are nearly all gone. But neither side is ready to give up the Battle of Bakhmut, which has taken on a level of symbolic significance for both sides that far outweighs its strategic value.

The head of the Russian mercenary group leading the fighting in Bakhmut complained over the weekend that ammunition was running short, and said retreat from the city would cause a collapse of Russia’s front lines. 

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters at a press conference in Jordan on Monday that “both sides are really leaning into this in a major way.”

“I think it’s more of a symbolic value than it is a strategic and operational value,” Austin said, adding the caveat that he didn’t want to discredit Ukrainian soldiers who were fighting for their lives.

For Ukraine, holding Bakhmut has become a rallying cry signifying Kyiv’s resistance, while its soldiers inflict heavy casualties on Russian forces. The defense of Bakhmut could also pave the way for a future counteroffensive. 

And for Russia, taking Bakhmut would serve as an important sign they are making advances in the war after months of setbacks, even if the town only gives them a minor foothold in the Donetsk region for a push further west.

Amid the intense pressure around Bakhmut, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky held a meeting with his top commanders on Monday, agreeing to maintain defensive positions in the town, according to a readout of the meeting.

If Ukrainian commanders did decide on a strategic withdrawal, it would likely be conducted at the most opportune and favorable time for its forces, said Hein Goemans, the director of the Peter D. Watson Center for Conflict & Cooperation at the University of Rochester. 

He said Ukraine is “extremely wily” and wants to “chew through Russian reserves” surrounding Bakhmut. 

“It’s one of those ways to attrite the Russian forces,” Goemans said. “They would like the Russians to throw as many of their troops as possible. … But at the moment it’s no longer worth it, they will withdraw without any question.”

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessed on Sunday that Russian forces have advanced from the north, east and south of Bakhmut, although it does not appear they have fully encircled Ukrainian defenders in the center of the city.

In the event of a Ukrainian withdrawal, it would likely be a gradual retreat, aimed at complicating Russian advances by putting up heavy fortifications, according to ISW.

Michael Kofman, director of the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analyses, said holding Bakhmut has allowed Ukraine to grind down Russian power, but clinging to the town could be costly.

“Strategies can reach points of diminishing returns,” Kofman wrote Sunday in a Twitter thread, “and given [Ukraine] is trying to husband resources for an offensive, it could impede the success of a more important operation.”

Ukraine has killed seven Russian soldiers for every one of its own, according to an estimate from Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine.

For Russia, those losses of manpower, along with ammunition and equipment, means Moscow will be hard-pressed to continue an offensive operation after taking Bakhmut.

Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of Russia’s private Wagner army, complained over the weekend that ammunition was running low and a representative of his mercenary outfit was denied access to Russia’s military command in Ukraine. 

Prigozhin accused the Kremlin of “ordinary bureaucracy or a betrayal,” adding that if Wagner were to withdraw, the Russian front in Bakhmut would collapse.

“I am knocking on all doors, sounding the alarm with ammunition and reinforcements,” Prigozhin wrote on Telegram.

The United Kingdom’s Ministry of Defense also noted Russia has been forced to deploy 60-year-old battle tanks and even older versions of armored vehicle carriers after large vehicular losses on battlefields across eastern Donetsk.

As both sides jockey for leverage, fighting in the region has become especially brutal and reminiscent of World War I, with troops dug into trenches just a few dozen feet or less from each other. 

Russian forces are sending in waves of soldiers toward Ukrainian defenses — often to test where enemy fire is coming from — then sending in more troops to break new ground.

In his remarks on Monday, Austin said if Ukraine does reposition, he would not view it as an “operational or a strategic setback,” adding he doubted Russia can keep up its pressure campaign for much longer.

“What I do see on a daily basis is the Russians continuing to pour in a lot of ill-trained and ill-equipped troops, and those troops are very quickly meeting their demise,” the defense secretary said. “I think we’ll continue to see that with the Russians going forward.”