The Hill’s 12:30 Report — Congress returns with laundry list amid uncertainty of House control

by Cate Martel - 11/14/22 12:30 PM ET

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–> A midday take on what’s happening in politics and how to have a sense of humor about it.*

*Ha. Haha. Hahah. Sniff. Haha. Sniff. Ha–breaks down crying hysterically.

TALK OF THE MORNING

It’s Monday after. Do you know who controls your chambers of Congress?:

Democrats will officially control the Senate for another two years after Arizona and Nevada were called in their favor over the weekend.

What’s still up in the air in the Senate?: How involved Vice President Harris will need to be. Georgia’s Senate runoff election will determine whether Democrats will control 50 or 51 seats in the upper chamber. If Republican Herschel Walker defeats incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.), the Senate will be 50/50, meaning Harris will be on speed-dial for tiebreakers.

^ When is Georgia’s Senate runoff?: Dec. 6

WHERE THE RACE FOR THE HOUSE STANDS:

Republicans have won 212 House seats, according to The New York Times’s count, and Democrats won 204 seats so far. Whichever party wins the magic 218 seats wins control of the lower chamber.

How many seats are still uncalled?: Roughly 20 seats

What Dave Wasserman of The Cook Political Report says about House control: Wasserman tweeted last night: “Between #AZ01, #AZ06 and #CA41, Dems’ dreams of holding the House majority probably died tonight.”

But Politico argues there is still a small chance Democrats keep the House: Politico’s Zach Montellaro writes that “Democrats have a legitimate — if narrow — chance of retaining the lower chamber.”

Where things stand: “In [the 20] uncalled races, Democrats would need to nearly run the table to keep the House. That remains unlikely, and Republicans are still favored to flip the chamber. But any majority — for either party — will likely be incredibly narrow, a major disappointment for the Republican Party that was crowing about a red wave even the morning of the election.” What would need to happen

ANOTHER CLOSELY WATCHED, UNCALLED RACE:

Democrat Katie Hobbs is leading Republican Kari Lake in Arizona’s gubernatorial race by just 1 percentage point.

What percentage of the votes have been counted?: 93 percent

What Wasserman said about the race after the latest vote drop: “Extremely tough to see how Kari Lake(R) wins now.”

It’s Monday. I’m Cate Martel with a quick recap of the morning and what’s coming up. Did someone forward this newsletter to you? Sign up here.

📝 Midterm takeaways

If we learned one thing last Tuesday, it is that Americans desperately want normalcy:

The New York Times’s Jonathan Weisman and Katie Glueck write that “In contests up and down the ballot, Republicans betting on a red wave instead received a sweeping rebuke from Americans who, for all the qualms polls show they have about Democratic governance, made clear they believe that the G.O.P. has become unacceptably extreme.”

What we learned: Voters do not have an appetite for Republican candidates who touted false claims of the 2020 presidential election results.

Other takeaways for the GOP, including abortion rights

‘LOW-INCOME VOTERS MAY HAVE BOLSTERED DEMOCRATS’ SURPRISING 2022 PERFORMANCE’:

The Hill’s Tobias Burns explains

‘DID THE POLLS GET IT WRONG AGAIN?’:

“Many pollsters are defending their profession, saying the surveys released in the months and weeks ahead of Election Day were more accurate than not.”

The reality: “A number of polls released in the final weeks of the election cycle seemed to accurately capture the dynamic on the ground, depicting races that were neck and neck.”

The Hill’s Julia Manchester looks into key races and how polling compared to the results

📍 In Indonesia

Let’s hash things out in person:

The Hill’s Alex Gangitano reports that “President Biden on Monday met with Chinese President Xi Jinping and said in their first in-person meeting since Biden took office that the two leaders should manage their differences.”

What Biden said to Xi at the beginning of the meeting: “As the leaders of our two nations, we share a responsibility, in my view, to show that China and the United States can manage our differences, prevent competition from becoming anything ever near conflict and to find ways to work together on urgent global issues that require our mutual cooperation.”

Why Biden and Xi are meeting?: They are both in Bali, Indonesia, for the Group of 20 summit.

What we know from the meeting

🎤 Onto 2024

Yes, but announcing this early, right before Thanksgiving and right after disappointing midterms for the GOP?:

Former President Trump is plowing ahead with his 2024 campaign launch this week despite the pleas of advisers, who point to risks for both Trump and the GOP.

Some of the risks of announcing this early: “For Trump, a formal declaration of his candidacy would cut off support from the Republican National Committee (RNC) in paying his legal bills, complicate how he can fundraise and risk inviting potential GOP challengers to move up their own plans if an announcement lands with a thud.”

And then there’s Georgia: Trump announcing his 2024 plans before the Georgia runoff election could motivate Democratic turnout.

When Trump may announce: Tuesday, Nov. 15. Last week, he teased an upcoming announcement at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach, Fla.

REPUBLICANS’ TOP TARGET IN 2024 — NOT THE MOST PROGRESSIVE OF THE BUNCH:

“Senate Republicans say Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) will be a top electoral target in 2024, even though he has voted with them more often than any other Senate Democrat and helped Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) block an effort to reform the chamber’s filibuster rule.”

Why Republicans are angry with Manchin: For supporting the Inflation Reduction Act, which included tax reform, prescription drug reform and climate change elements.

Is Manchin running for reelection?: “Manchin, who is 75 years old, won’t say whether he’ll run for a fourth Senate term but West Virginia political experts say he is showing every sign of gearing up for another run.”

What to expect in this potential reelection race, via The Hill’s Alexander Bolton

TIDBIT FROM PENCE:

In an interview with ABC News’s David Muir, former Vice President Pence criticized former President Trump’s tweet during the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot.

In Pence’s words: “It angered me. But I turned to my daughter who was standing nearby, and I said, ‘It doesn’t take courage to break the law, it takes courage to uphold the law’ … And the president’s words were reckless. It’s clear he decided to be part of the problem.” More from Pence’s interview

‘RANKING THE DEMOCRATS WHO COULD RUN FOR PRESIDENT IN 2024’:

From The Hill’s Amie Parnes

📱 The latest with Twitter

ELON SEEMS OVERWHELMED:
In a video conference earlier today, billionaire Elon Musk admitted, “I have too much work on my plate that is for sure.” Musk told the conference that he works “the absolute most amount … from morning til night, seven days a week.” More from Reuters

🛬 In Congress

Guess who’s back, back, back? Back again!:

The House and Senate are back in session after long recesses to campaign.

The timeliest items on the agenda: “Congress must begin working toward passing a budget and authorizing the annual defense policy bill — two tasks that have to be completed before lawmakers adjourn for the holiday break next month. Just 17 legislative days remain.”

Plus: “Lawmakers are also hoping to push through other bills, including one to protect same-sex marriage on the federal level and another to protect elections. They could also move to raise the debt limit.”

What else is happening this week: Republicans’ leadership races and new-member orientation

Rundown of the upcoming week, from The Hill’s Mychael Schnell

‘PROGRESSIVES EYE NEW CONGRESS EMBOLDENED BY MIDTERM WINS’:

What to expect, from The Hill’s Hanna Trudo and Mychael Schnell

🦠 Latest with COVID

➤ THE COVID-19 NUMBERS

Cases to date: 97.8 million

Death toll: 1,070,947

Current hospitalizations: 21,691

Shots administered: 646 million

Fully vaccinated: 68.6 percent of Americans

CDC data here.

🐥Notable tweets

This looks delicious:

Over the weekend, President Biden attended the East Asia Summit in Cambodia. The Associated Press’s Seung Min Kim tweeted the menu at a gala dinner that Biden attended.

⏱On tap

The House and Senate are in. President Biden is in Bali, Indonesia. Vice President Harris is in Washington, D.C.

4:30 a.m.: Biden held a bilateral meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Bali.
2 p.m.: Harris ceremonially swears in Candace Bond as U.S. ambassador to the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago.
3 p.m.: The Senate returns from recess (!)
5:30 p.m.: A Senate cloture vote on a judicial nomination. Today’s Senate agenda
6:30 p.m.: First and last votes in the House. Today’s House agenda