The Hill’s 12:30 Report — Expect delays in midterm results amid tight races, early voting
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–> A midday take on what’s happening in politics and how to have a sense of humor about it.*
*Ha. Haha. Hahah. Sniff. Haha. Sniff. Ha–breaks down crying hysterically.
TALK OF THE MORNING
Tomorrow’s the big day:
Voters will decide on Tuesday whether they are happy with how Democrats have governed or whether they would prefer for Republicans to control the House and/or the Senate.
Be prepared: It is very likely that we will not know the results for days — or even weeks. This is because of mail-in voting and potentially close races.
How many seats need to change hands for Republicans to control Congress?: Republicans need to net five seats in the House and just one seat in the Senate.
NPR’s Domenico Montanaro explains the timing of how election results could play out
How many people have voted already?: More than 42 million ballots have already been cast. NBC News’s breakdown by state
The latest polls: Compiled by RealClearPolitics
PLOT TWISTS — RACES YOU SHOULD WATCH:
Race shuffle in Arizona: A Libertarian candidate dropped out of the race last week and endorsed Republican Senate candidate Blake Masters. That gave Masters a boost in the final stretch against Sen. Mark Kelly (D).
Pennsylvania’s Senate race is razor-thin: CNN’s Dan Merica writes that “no Senate race in the country has received as much money and attention as the hotly contested and at-times divisive contest between Republican Mehmet Oz and Democrat John Fetterman in Pennsylvania.” Where the race stands
TIDBIT — WHERE IS BIDEN CAMPAIGNING ON THE LAST DAY BEFORE THE ELECTION?:
In Maryland, which is not considered a most-watched race.
The White House’s strategy has been to avoid battleground states and instead visit safer spots as part of a “do no harm” strategy, write The Hill’s Alex Gangitano and Amie Parnes.
That strategy is raising eyebrows
It’s Monday. Happy Election Eve! 🥳 I’m Cate Martel with a quick recap of the morning and what’s coming up. Did someone forward this newsletter to you? Sign up here.
📊 Polling
We’re up. We’re down. We’re bringing it around town.:
In September, The New York Times’s Nate Cohn wrote that he “noticed a warning sign in the polls: Democrats were showing strength in exactly the places where the polls overestimated their chances in 2020.” Read the September warning sign noticed in polling
Well, the Times just altered that prediction (!): “With the election only days away, that warning sign is gone: There is no longer any material relationship between relative Democratic or Republican strength in the key Senate races and the polling error from 2020.” Read Cohn’s update that was published on Sunday
OTHER PREDICTIONS:
From FiveThirtyEight: “It’s a dead heat for the Senate,” while “Republicans are favored to win the House.” Graphics of the predicted outcomes
From The Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman: Here are Wasserman’s predictions for the “toss up” House races.
^ What Wasserman is saying about the Senate: “It’s possible Tuesday could be a big GOP wave in both chambers, but tbh there’s not much high-quality data to support narrative the ‘bottom has fallen out’ for House Ds. If anything, state fundamentals have moved the Senate outlook a notch closer to where the House already was.”
Politico’s final election forecast: Politico predicts that Republicans could gain up to 15 House seats. And for the Senate, Politico predicts six “toss up” races. “But because four of those seats are currently held by Democrats and two by Republicans, it’s fair to describe the GOP as a slim favorite. If the two parties split those six seats evenly, Republicans will win a 51-49 majority.” Steven Shepard’s forecast
FIVE RACES WHERE DEMOCRATS COULD PULL OFF SURPRISE WINS:
From The Hill’s Caroline Vakil
FOUR SCENARIOS FOR ELECTION NIGHT:
⚖️ On the minds of lawmakers
Is Merrick Garland going to do it?:
“The expected indictment of Donald Trump is looming over the midterm elections as both parties are preparing for a major battle after Election Day if Attorney General Merrick Garland moves forward with an unprecedented prosecution of a former president.”
When some GOP aides and strategists think a Trump indictment will happen: In the first 60 to 90 days after the midterms.
Some insight into how Republicans might handle it: Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) told The Hill that “if Biden treats the Department of Justice as partisan stormtroopers, then Congress is justified in using whatever tools Congress has to stop that abuse of power.”
What this could complicate — funding the government in December: “If an indictment of Trump does come before mid-December, Justice Department funding likely would become a political football as congressional leaders work to pass legislation to fund the government for the next year.”
How this could play out, via The Hill’s Alexander Bolton
📱 What’s happening at Twitter
Rain delay on charging for verification:
The New York Times’s Ryan Max, Kate Conger and Mike Isaac report: “Twitter is delaying the rollout of verification check marks to subscribers of its new $7.99 a month subscription service until after Tuesday’s midterm elections, according to an internal post viewed by The New York Times and two people with knowledge of the decision.”
Why — yep, this was worrisome: “Many Twitter users and employees raised concerns that the new pay-for-play badges could cause confusion ahead of Tuesday’s elections because users could easily create verified accounts — say, posing as President Biden or as lawmakers or news outlets and publishing false information about voting results — which could potentially sow discord.”
But there’s still a problem: “A manager working on the verification badge project responded on Sunday that ‘we’ve made the decision to move the launch of this release to Nov. 9, after the election.’ Twitter, whose communications team has been almost entirely laid off, did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Nov. 9 is the day immediately following Tuesday’s election, and many races may still be undecided as votes are tallied.”
TIDBITS:
Twitter co-founder Jack Dorsey tweeted over the weekend: “Folks at Twitter past and present are strong and resilient. They will always find a way no matter how difficult the moment. I realize many are angry with me. I own the responsibility for why everyone is in this situation: I grew the company size too quickly. I apologize for that.”
Twitter’s new head Elon Musk tweeted: “To independent-minded voters: Shared power curbs the worst excesses of both parties, therefore I recommend voting for a Republican Congress, given that the Presidency is Democratic.”
^ Punchbowl News’s Jake Sherman pointed out: “Musk has long been friendly with Kevin McCarthy.”
^ And The Washington Post’s Tony Romm pointed out: “Elon Musk just used the platform he bought to encourage people to vote Republican during the election tomorrow, something that — to my knowledge — no social media chief exec has ever done in this way.”
🗳 Yes, we’re already talking about 2024
Something Trump has to keep in mind:
If and when former President Trump announces a presidential bid for 2024, the Republican National Committee (RNC) can no longer help pay his legal bills.
How we know this: RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel told CNN’s Dana Bash.
Has the RNC been paying Trump’s legal bills?: Yes, some of them. “The RNC’s executive committee last year confirmed it was paying for certain legal fees ‘that relate to politically motivated legal proceedings waged against President Trump,’ and in recent months the committee has funded Trump’s defense against probes launched by Manhattan District Attorney Cy Vance Jr. (D) and New York Attorney General Letitia James (D).” More on what this could mean
TEN REPUBLICANS MOST LIKELY TO BE THE 2024 GOP PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE:
‘TRUMP-DESANTIS RIFT GROWS, WITH DUELING RALLIES IN FLORIDA’:
From The New York Times’s Michael C. Bender and Patricia Mazzei
💰 In other news
‘WHEN COULD STUDENT LOAN BORROWERS KNOW IF THEY’RE ACTUALLY GETTING RELIEF?’:
The Hill’s Lexi Lonas and Jared Gans break down what we know
HOW FILING YOUR 2022 TAXES COULD BE DIFFERENT:
🦠 The COVID-19 numbers
Cases to date: 97.6 million
Death toll: 1,068,667
Current hospitalizations: 21,335
Shots administered: 640 million
Fully vaccinated: 68.5 percent of Americans
🐥Notable tweets
Whoops:
C-SPAN’s Howard Mortman tweeted a video of President Biden tripping at an event in Yonkers. Keep in mind that Biden catches himself and makes a comment about it. Watch
⏱On tap
The House and Senate are out. President Biden is in Washington, D.C. Vice President Harris is in California.
- 9:30 a.m.: Biden received his daily briefing.
- 4 p.m.: Biden participates in a virtual reception for the Democratic National Committee.
- 4:10 p.m.: Harris speaks at a political event at UCLA.
- 5 p.m.: Harris participates in a virtual political event.
- 5:45 p.m.: Biden and first lady Jill Biden leave for Bowie, Md.
- 7 p.m.: The Bidens participate in a rally for gubernatorial candidate Wes Moore and the Democratic Party.
- 8:35 p.m.: The Bidens return to the White House.
All times Eastern.
📺What to watch
- 1:45 p.m.: White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre holds a press briefing. Livestream
- Nov. 14: ABC News’s David Muir interviews former Vice President Mike Pence. Details
🍫 In lighter news
Today is National Bittersweet Chocolate with Almonds Day. That is the most random holiday I think I’ve ever written.
And to briefly get your mind off the election, here’s a dog who should better direct his begging efforts.
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