Warnock narrowly leads Walker in Georgia Senate race: poll

Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) holds a slim lead over his Republican rival, Herschel Walker, in Georgia’s closely watched Senate race, though he’s still shy of the majority support he’d need to avoid a runoff election, according to a survey from Emerson College Polling and The Hill released Thursday.

The poll found Warnock leading Walker 49 percent to 47 percent among very likely voters, with another 2 percent undecided. Warnock’s lead is largely unchanged from September, when he held a 2-point advantage over Walker.

Georgia’s Senate race has emerged as one of the most unpredictable contests of the year. It’s also one of the most pivotal, holding the potential to decide which party controls the upper chamber.

The latest Emerson College Polling-The Hill survey also offers another indicator that the race could head into overtime. Georgia law requires that a candidate receive more than 50 percent of the vote to win an election outright, and most polling shows both candidates falling short of that goal.

If neither Warnock nor Walker manage to run up enough support on Election Day, they’ll advance to a Dec. 6 runoff, potentially leaving the Senate majority in limbo for another month. 

Walker, a former University of Georgia football star, has remained resilient in the race despite facing a slew of controversies on the campaign trail. That may be because voters ultimately see him as the candidate better suited to tackle the nation’s current economic uncertainty. Forty-six percent of respondents said the economy is the most important issue facing the country, and of those voters, 75 percent said they plan to vote for Walker.

What’s more, President Biden’s approval rating in Georgia remains underwater, with 52 percent of voters disapproving of the job he’s doing in office and 41 percent giving him positive marks. That could prove to be a drag on Warnock, who’s seeking his first full term in the Senate after winning a special election in early 2021.

In Georgia’s high-profile gubernatorial race, meanwhile, Republican incumbent Brian Kemp holds a distinct, 6-point lead over Democratic challenger Stacey Abrams. Fifty-two percent of voters say they’re supporting Kemp compared to 46 percent who are backing Abrams.

The Emerson College-The Hill poll surveyed 1,000 very likely voters in Georgia from Oct. 28 to 31. It has a credibility interval — similar to a margin of error — of 3 percentage points.