Democrats grumble it’s too little, too late with Obama

When aides to Barack Obama announced the former president’s schedule for the midterm elections late last week, some Democrats were already grumbling. 

For weeks, Democrats had been wondering where Obama was ahead of a midterm fight where the party is clinging to the slimmest of majorities in the House and Senate.

President Biden is widely seen as a drag on the party’s fortunes this cycle as he battles dismal approval ratings. With some candidates not wanting Biden to attend rallies in their states and districts, the absence of Obama’s star power has been notable.

Obama did attend four fundraisers in August and September to raise money for candidates, but some Democrats say that’s not enough given his standing and ability to draw a crowd.

“I think a lot of people have said, ‘Where’s Obama?’” one Democratic strategist acknowledged. “He shouldn’t just be the closer. He’s still seen as the party’s rock star.”

In interviews, other strategists and donors reiterated the sentiment that Obama should be out there more to help the party.

With less than three weeks to go until the election, polls suggest Republicans have seized back the momentum from Democrats.

A CBS News-YouGov survey showed Democrats trailing Republicans on the generic congressional ballot, while a New York Times-Siena College poll released this week found voters were more likely to vote Republican by a 49 to 45 percent margin. That’s a shift from when Democrats held a 1-point advantage over the summer.

“I think it’s foolish to leave things to the end,” one strategist said of the use of Obama.  

Democratic strategist Eddie Vale agreed that Obama “is coming in late in the cycle,” though he said it is both not unusual and not a major problem.

Vale argued it “shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone” that Obama is only showing up on the campaign trail now.

“They believe, correctly in my view, that if he’s out there doing events all of the time, it dilutes the attention it gets from voters and reporters so it’s best to save it for the big get out the vote push at the end,” he said. 

Sources close to Obama say the former president is actively involved in helping Democrats in a variety of ways.  

On Wednesday, Obama’s team announced that they were adding another stop to his midterm tour in Nevada, where he is expected to join an early vote rally on Nov. 1. The rally comes on the heels of previously announced stops in Atlanta, Detroit and Milwaukee. 

Nevada, Georgia and Wisconsin are home to three of the races likely to determine the next Senate majority. Georgia, Nevada and Michigan are also the settings for three major gubernatorial races.

“Given the high stakes of this year’s midterm elections, President Obama wants to do his part to help Democrats win next month,” said Hanna Hankins, who serves as communications director to the former president. “This is why he headlined four finance events in recent months for the key campaign committees and will campaign in targeted states as part of the Democrats final GOTV stretch. 

“He looks forward to stumping for candidates up and down the ballot, especially in races and states that will have consequences for the administration of the 2024 elections,” Hankins added. 

The former president also released a 45-second video aimed at getting out the vote and warning about the consequences of staying home. It’s the latest video in a string of more than 20 spots that the former president has recorded this election cycle, including for candidates such as Steve Sisolak and Sen. Maggie Hassan, who are running in gubernatorial races in Nevada and New Hampshire, respectively. 

“Election Day is right around the corner, and I want to be clear about what’s at stake,” Obama says in the video released on Wednesday. “Our fundamental rights are on the ballot, especially women’s reproductive rights.” 

“The good news is that we have the power to forge a different future,” he added. “… So don’t sit this election out.”

Obama’s presence at rallies can help with a crowd, but they don’t always lead to success at the ballot box.

Obama won elections when he was on the ballot in 2008 and 2012, but his appearances at campaign rallies didn’t prevent Democrats from suffering midterm losses in 2010 and 2014. In 2016, he was a surrogate for Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton, who lost to Republican former President Trump even as she won the nation’s popular vote.

In 2010, amid a backlash to his stewardship over a recession and congressional passage of the Affordable Care Act, Republicans trounced Obama’s party, picking up 63 seats, one of the biggest gains in decades.

“People forget that it’s not so easy for him or anyone really these days with some of these races being so polarized,” a second Democratic strategist said. “People forget it was often Joe Biden who had to go out to these purple districts because Obama wasn’t exactly welcomed there.” 

Still, one longtime strategist who has worked alongside Obama said the former president, almost more than any other surrogate, has the ability to help with key constituencies, including independents and Black voters. 

“I think it probably helps Mandela Barnes as an African American candidate to have Obama in his state,” the strategist said of the Democratic Senate candidate in Wisconsin. “It will help him turn out Black voters and consolidate the Black vote, which Barnes has been struggling to do.” 

“I think [Obama] is being used in the right places right now and can be effective in this moment,” the strategist added.