Democrats’ lead on congressional ballot shrinks to 1 point in new survey

Democrats’ lead over Republicans on the generic congressional ballot now stands at 1 point with just three weeks left until Election Day, according to a Politico-Morning Consult poll released on Wednesday.

Forty-five percent of registered voters in the new survey said they would vote for the Democratic candidate in their congressional district, compared to the 44 percent who would cast their ballots for the Republican.

Another 11 percent in the poll said they didn’t know who they would vote for or had no opinion.

Democrats’ lead on the generic congressional ballot has ticked down in recent weeks as the party has lost some of the traction it gained over the summer, leading some to worry that Democrats peaked too soon for the midterm elections. 

A Politico-Morning Consult poll from earlier this month showed Democrats with a 3-point lead over Republicans, while a late September poll showed Republicans trailing by just 2 points. Democrats led Republicans by 4 points in polls from Politico and Morning Consult in both July and August.

A separate CNN survey from last week showed that Republicans have the edge in competitive districts, leading Democrats by 5 points. The tight races in those competitive districts represent key opportunities for Republicans, who only need to pick up five seats to regain control on the House.

Wednesday’s Politico-Morning Consult poll was conducted Oct. 14-16 with 2,005 registered voters and has a margin of error of 2 percentage points.